Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271749 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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