Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272113 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST +5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE. THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST... HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT... WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE START THE FORECAST...VFR THEREAFTER. FLURRIES ARE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CU FIELD WILL LIFT A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTING CLOUD BASES TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CIGS EXIST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD VEERING FROM OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RAY

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