Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231530 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1130 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 15Z sfc analysis shows high pressure sliding just to south of the area. This provided, and continues to provide, clear skies through the night and into Sunday. It was the clear skies and light winds that helped to maximize the cooling early this morning and resulted in areas of frost in the valleys and many reports of lows in the mid 30s. Now temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 50s for most places, though some colder spots are only slowly coming up through the 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Winds are relatively light so far this morning, generally from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. These will pick up by early afternoon as higher winds mix down from aloft and the pressure gradient is realized. Temperatures are on track for a pleasant day, likely topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Have updated the grids with the latest ShortBlend data along with the current obs/trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with an updated set of zones and new HWO - mainly to remove morning/frost wording. UPDATE Issued at 815 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures...dew points...and sky cover according to the latest satellite and observational trends. The diurnal rise was slowed, given the chilly start in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 The latest surface map features high pressure centered across the Gulf Coast states, with a surface ridge aligned northeast into eastern Kentucky. Broad low pressure is moving east across the northern Plains. Aloft, a deep upper level low is pulling north across northern New England, with a short wave trough skirting the U.S./Canadian border close to Minnesota. Broad ridging is controlling across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures are chilly in the valleys of eastern Kentucky this morning, with a few spots reporting as cool as 33 degrees, with some patchy frost/fog likely. The surface ridge will scoot off to the southeast today, as low pressure quickly moves into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, before moving through our area by Monday morning. High pressure will then build in from the northwest. Today will feature a good rebound in temperatures, thanks to plenty of sunshine, and breezier southwest winds. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will be milder with the approach of the cold front; however, still expect some of the eastern valleys to reach the lower 40s, while ridges stay about 10 degrees warmer. Winds will shift to the northwest on Monday, helping to knock back highs a few degrees, despite another mostly sunny day. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Models continue to be in reasonable agreement this week, but are trending towards a weaker shortwave trough for late Wednesday and Thursday, meaning lower rain chances and less rainfall. The period will start off Monday night with high pressure building in from the north. This will yield clear skies and cool temperatures for Monday night. Some of the eastern valleys will likely dip into the mid 30s. Conditions should favor more fog formation as cross over temperatures will be somewhat high (around 40 at best) going into the overnight hours. Thus, frost not a significant concern for Monday night. However, heading into Tuesday, we will mix into some very dry air just off the surface with dewpoints likely crashing to around 30 in places during the afternoon. This will also send highs higher into the mid to upper 60s (generally above guidance). While the ridging will slide eastward by Tuesday night, gradient will remain somewhat weak allowing valleys to decouple and setting up our best shot at frost this week. For now will include some fog near the river valleys, with frost elsewhere, and only in the valleys as ridgetops should stay a bit milder in the lower 40s. By Wednesday, a warm front will shift northward with south to southwest winds developing. This will bring in milder temperatures along with slightly higher dewpoints. By Wednesday night, we could see some showers develop along the warm front as it stalls over northern Kentucky. The better chance of rain will come Thursday as the shortwave trough pushes across the Ohio river valley. As mentioned above, overall forcing and moisture is much more in question today, leading to a weaker system and lower rain chances. GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement, so the lower rain chances seem reasonable. System and forcing will depart quickly Thursday evening, but a secondary dry cold front will slip south overnight, bringing in cooler weather to round out the week. Mid level ridging will return by Saturday with temperatures quickly on the rebound as we head into next weekend. Models do start to diverge through the weekend with the GFS laying out a boundary across northern Kentucky, while the ECMWF brings in a rather significant shortwave ridge ahead of another system for Sunday. For now, opted to keep the forecast dry and wait for models to work things out before introducing rain chances into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 VFR conditions can be expected through the period. Wind will be the main concern today, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Light southwest winds will pick up to around 10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. The wind will then diminish to between and 5 and 10 kts by early this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.