Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 162055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 355 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 355 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018 A positively tilted trough is currently aligned from eastern Canada down to northern Mexico. This feature is slowly working its way east. A lingering upper level jet, lending sustained deeper lift, has brought widespread moderate to heavy snow to eastern Kentucky through the day. So far, totals have ranged from about an inch across our far southeast, with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. The back edge of the snow is moving through the I-64 corridor, and this will gradually work off to the southeast through this evening. Some partial clearing may work in temporarily tonight, before the trough axis moves in, allowing for a return of clouds and a few snow showers. Temperatures will drop into the single digits for lows. On Wednesday, isolated snow showers and flurries will diminish generally from west to east through the day, with highs only at around 20. The center of a surface high pressure will build in closer to us Wednesday night, especially in the southern portion of our area. This will allow for a cold night, with temperatures likely dropping down to near zero or lower in places, given the lingering snow pack and clearing skies. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018 The overall pattern for the long term shows a distinct separation between the northern stream over the Great Lakes and the southern stream over the Mississippi Valley. This will lead to more zonal flow evolving to ridging for eastern KY through the weekend before a disturbance moves through early next week. The models seem to be in decently good agreement with the overall pattern, but differ in timing and intensity of the cold front next Monday. The ECMWF shows a slightly faster and more intense band of precip as compared with the GFS. Therefore, the uncertainty for precip totals and timing into the CWA is high. Looking closer to the surface, high pressure will set up to the SW of eastern KY for the beginning of the extended period. The high will gradually shift to the east and be to our SE by the weekend. This will bring in SW to S winds, and this combined with minimal cloud cover, will increase the potential for ridge/valley temperature splits Thursday and Friday night. This also means WAA into the region over the weekend leading to warmer high temps in the 50s and 60s. With such high temps, the precip brought in by the cold front Monday will likely be rain showers. The passage of the cold front will usher in cooler temps, with precip possibly ending as a mix of rain/snow on the higher elevations.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 133 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018 Light snow and IFR conditions will gradually improve from northwest to southeast through this evening. Expect MVFR ceilings to remain in place through the rest of the period, with intermittent flurries/isolated snow showers continuing across the area. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts will continue through the period as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044- 050>052-059-060-080-084>087-104-106>117-119. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ058-068- 069-079-083. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ088- 118-120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.