Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 081054 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 654 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A THREAT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING TO SEE HOW THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AN MCS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ALREADY SEEING SIGNS THAT WE MAY BE SEEING THIS SYSTEM WEAKEN AS LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO WARM. MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS COMING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/INDIANA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...MODELS ARE HOLDING OFF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON KENTUCKY. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INSTABILITY DOESN`T SEEM LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE UPDRAFTS NEEDED TO GET HAIL OUT OF A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 14KFT. STORMS SHOULD START TO FIRE OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS MAY HOLD ON WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RETREATING TO THE SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. SOME MOISTURE COULD GET TRAPPED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD AID IN A SHOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FOR MOST THE AREA...A DRY DAY WILL BE ON TAP. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S WITH THE RAIN. SLIGHT COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY KICK UP SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. THE LATEST ECMWF KEPT THINGS DRY...SO THIS MAY BE TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST BY DAY SHIFT. FRIDAY SHOULD STAY DRY AND THEN ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS STAY IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE ARE ENOUGH NUANCES THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND STARTS TO TAPER OFF. USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN MADE SOME CORRECTIONS BASED ON ELEVATION. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR VIS/CIG WILL COME WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...KAS

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