-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
375
FXUS63 KJKL 300736
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
336 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Showers today, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. Not as warm.

- Dry and trending warmer midweek, with near record highs on
  Thursday.

- Unsettled weather returns for Friday and lingers through the
  weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2024

Rain showers have arrived to the far southwest counties of the
forecast area as of this early-morning writing. Rain will continue
to progress slowly NNE through the day. I`ve removed the thunder
chance early this morning as instability is best over northern
Alabama, where thunder prevails at this time. There is a subtle
resurgence in instability by midday, but this varies greatly from
model to model. I say subtle because there will be plenty of
clouds to overcome. Lapse rates are generally be poor as well.
Additionally, in the wake of this cold front, a forcing mechanism
for any late-afternoon redevelopment is absent. Therefore, have
generally capped the thunder at "chance" today with dry weather
prevailing from west to east as this line of rain exits. Rainfall
today will generally total around 0.25" to as much as 0.50".

Clearing skies tonight with light wind. Add to the mix the fresh
rainfall and fog is likely overnight in the valleys.

500-mb heights will be on the rise Wednesday due in part to some
deepening of a trough over the Northern Rockies. This will propel
our highs back into the 80s following the  seasonably cool
temperatures of Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2024

Long term discussion to come near 4am.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2024

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR and fuel-alternate conditions
after daybreak Tuesday. This, as a cold front slowly mores
through. Rain is ongoing across central KY and TN, with thunder
confined to TN. As a result, I have removed the TS mention from
the TAFs. It is uncertain whether or not isolated thunderstorms
redevelop late this afternoon and is something that will need to
be explored for the next issuance. However, pattern recognition
amid a very slow moving system suggests recovery time will be
limited, implying a nil TS threat in the afternoon. Decreasing
clouds and light wind to end the TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...BROWN