Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281440 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...AS IS THE WEATHER. SHORTWAVE RIDGING INDUCED BY APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP OUT WEATHER NICE FOR ANOTHER DAY...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT MAY NOT FEEL QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS WHICH RESULTED IN FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT BEING ENJOYED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOST VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DO LOOK A BIT OVERDONE ON THE MOISTURE...AND WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...THINK THAT THE CAP SHOULD HOLD MOST CONVECTION AT BAY BESIDES A STRAY POP UP. A WEAK 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENGAGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CAP IN THE EAST MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY POP UPS...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...DURING THIS TIME...THE MENTIONED UPPER LOW...AND REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA UNDER CUT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THIS TIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. BESIDES THE MODELS TRYING TO INPUT SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE OVERALL DRY OR WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 13Z. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6K FEET AGL. IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING TONIGHT...SO SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ LOOKS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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