Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270530 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 JUST REFRESHED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET. THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR

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