Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 021943 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104- 106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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