Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS... CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3 HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO 15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD AND DRY. DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH AND THUS...CIG FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD ERODE THESE AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. REGARDLESS...AT THE VERY LEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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