Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 150917 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 417 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 417 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018 Light snow currently moving across the Bluegrass region as a warm front, associated with a surface low across western Wisconsin, lifts through central and northeastern Kentucky. This feature`s parent upper low, just off to the north, will guide the left exit region of an upper jet streak through eastern Kentucky, further promoting large-scale forcing for ascent. Dewpoints have recovered somewhat better than previously expected with readings solidly into the teens. Lift and near-surface layer moisture will be rather short- lived along this boundary, with light snow and flurries tapering off toward and north of the Ohio River by mid-morning. Nonetheless, snowfall accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch will be possible mainly along and north of Mountain Parkway. Clouds will lift and scour out in the low levels this afternoon as winds veer southwesterly downstream of the surface low migrating toward the southern shore of Lake Michigan. This will aid in moisture recovery ahead of an arctic front set to plow through eastern Kentucky late this evening and tonight, while also providing a subtle warmup this afternoon with temperatures topping out in the mid-upper 30s. The Bluegrass region will see the next and more impactful round of snow arrive by late this afternoon into early this evening, with points south and east following suit through the evening, followed by far southeastern Kentucky seeing flakes fly near midnight. Deep layer lift will once again be aided by bonafide upper level dynamics, this time by way of the right entrance region of the aforementioned jet streak. Light snow will continue Tuesday, likely lasting through much of the day in a cold air advection and upslope flow regime. With total snowfall accumulations generally ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 inches from late this afternoon through Tuesday, have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to encompass all of eastern Kentucky. With the usual upslope-induced generation enhanced by the aforementioned upper dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts push or exceed the 4 inch mark on ridgetops along the Virginia state line. A warning does not appear to be warranted for now even if amounts do trend upward as snow amounts will be over a period greater than 12 hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 417 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018 The extended will be broken up into three periods. The first will feature accumulating snowfall across the eastern portions of the forecast area behind a departing area of low pressure aloft. This period of snow should quickly taper off Tuesday night, and should be out of the area by early Wednesday morning. Very cold temperatures will persist during this period, with highs generally in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to around 10 degrees across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The second period of the extended will last from Thursday through Saturday morning, and will feature a steady warming of temperatures across the area. The warm up will begin on Thursday, as winds shift to the southwest across the region. Highs on Thursday are forecast to top out in the low to mid 30s, which will feel quite warm compared to the temperatures we`ll see over the next few days. The warming trend is then expected to continue into the weekend, with highs forecast to max out in the 40s on Friday and in the low to mid 50s on Saturday. Another weather system could begin to influence the region by late Saturday, and we could see a few rain showers moving into the area Saturday evening and night. This weather system, should the models be correct, would make its main push across the area on Sunday, and would bring more numerous rain showers to eastern Kentucky Sunday and Sunday night. Sunday might also mark the warmest temperatures we`ll see during the period, with highs forecast to climb to around 60 degrees on that day. Nightly lows should gradually increase from the mid teens to lower 20s Thursday night, to the 20s and 30s Friday night, and then into the mid 30s to lower 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, as winds remain steady out of the south or southwest.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018 VFR conditions are expected tonight and much of Monday, prior to lowering toward MVFR levels Monday evening and night as snow approaches eastern Kentucky. This will also lower visibilities into at least the MVFR range through much of tonight. The exception earlier in the day will be along and north of Interstate 64, including SYM, where a brief stint of light snow and MVFR ceilings may occur early this morning. Ceilings should nonetheless lift by mid-late morning while remaining near or above FL100 during much of the late morning and afternoon. Winds will veer southwesterly this morning, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts approaching 15-20 knots. These will largely diminish below 10 knots this evening with arrival of MVFR conditions and light snow. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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