Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 051948 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 348 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109- 110-112-113-115-117>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP

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