Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 162228 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 628 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 628 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 Quick update to make sure the near term grids were on track with the current observations. Only minor changes made as a result. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 19z sfc analysis shows a moderately strong area of high pressure over eastern Kentucky this afternoon. This is keeping the wx dry, so far, across the area though a decent cu field has developed at between 4 and 6k feet AGL. The cloud development has not hindered the temperature climb today, though, with readings up in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Meanwhile, dewpoints are holding in the mid 60s with light winds generally out of the north. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. Ridging will build through the region this weekend, though it is sort of dirty with bits of energy drifting through the higher height fields. Regardless, a blending of the models will be a reasonable starting point. Sensible weather will feature nice conditions through the rest of the weekend and into the start of the new week. Look for areas of fog to develop tonight and tomorrow night becoming locally dense in the valleys late. During the days, fair weather cu will be plentiful, but any shower chances will be sub 14%. Temperatures will end up just a smidge higher than normal in the upper 70s and low 80s most places. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point of all the grids. Did make some changes to temperatures each night based on terrain anticipating a small to moderate ridge and valley split. As for PoP, have kept them low through the period - in line with guidance. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 The story in the extended will actually be temperatures this time around. Based on the latest model data and the current weather pattern, we should see slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the lower 80s each day and lows in the lower 60s each night. There will be a chance of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon in our far western counties and across the entire area on Wednesday. The rest of the period will be dry. Winds during the extended should be generally light and variable. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon though with some scattered cumulus at generally around 5-6k feet agl before diminishing this evening. Again, at least MVFR/IFR fog can be expected in the valleys developing between 06 and 12z and these may impact the SME, LOZ, and SJS TAF sites. Have set up some late night tempos for this possibility. The fog clears out quickly Sunday morning with more VFR conditions expected along with some fair weather afternoon cu. Winds will average less than 5 kts throughout the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF

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