Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280619 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Precip finally died out. The inherited forecast had this in hand. Have blended latest obs into the forecast grids, and also updated sky cover through Monday based on 00z model runs. UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Isolated to scattered convection has been persistent into this evening across the south, but the latest radar trends are encouraging for a gradual diminishment in the next hour or so. Have freshened up the POPs accordingly, along with the sky cover, as plenty of debris clouds will hang in through 06z, before generally decreasing. Low temperatures around the 70 degree mark look reasonable and mainly freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points to account for the current trends in observations. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 821 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 It is very much a storm-scale driven pattern early this evening, as multiple outflow boundaries are currently migrating across the area. Most of the earlier convection has ended; however, there are a few clusters across the TN/KY border that will skirt along our southern counties over the next 1 to 2 hours. Will also leave an isolated storm mention generally south of the Mountain Parkway through the same time period, given the ongoing outflow interaction and some instability still lingering across the area. Once the convection dissipates, skies will clear out, with patchy dense fog likely forming once again. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Hot and muggy weather will continue across eastern Kentucky through the weekend, as the ridge of high pressure that is currently parked over the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid Mississippi valley regions, continues to exert some influence on the region. A few showers and thunderstorms have formed this afternoon in the humid and unstable air mass that is in place. These should remain confined to an area generally along and west of the I-75 corridor. A few showers and storms will also be present along and north of the western end of the Mountain Parkway in our forecast area through sunset this evening. Any showers and storms that form today should dissipate quickly once the sun goes down. Another round of showers and storms is expected on Sunday, as the aforementioned ridge weakens and allows height falls to occur over the region. The persistently warm and humid air mass will still be in place, however, and with the ridge weakening, conditions will be bit more favorable for shower and storm formation on Sunday. That being said, still only went with 20-40 percent chance of rain across the area on Sunday, with the best time for rain being during the afternoon and evening hours. The rain should taper off Sunday night, with only a few showers or storms ongoing along and north of I-64 by early Monday morning. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be very warm and uncomfortable yet again, with min readings around 70 expected. Highs on Sunday should easily reach 90 or slightly above for the entire area once again. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The period is expected to begin with a general area of ridging with the axis from the Ohio Valley east to near Bermuda. A shortwave trough is expected to be moving into the Maritimes and Northeast CONUS at that time, with a stronger trough extending toward the Northern Plains from a closed low moving through the Canadian Plains. A weakness in the ridging is expected to develop along the Eastern Seaboard by Monday night with upper ridging becoming centered east of Bermuda and over the Mid MS Valley Region. The Canadian closed low should progress east across Ontario and into Quebec through midweek and as this system begins to merge with another closed low to the Northeast and the center of the Upper ridge retrogrades into the Plains, a trough will begin to be carved out over Eastern Canada and into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This should send a cold front across the area Wed night and Thursday. Surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes should then usher in a cooler and drier airmass. Another shortwave should move through the Eastern Canada and Northeast CONUS Thursday into Friday. The axis of this trough should begin to move east of the area by Thursday night and Friday. Height rises are expected to begin across the Southeast CONUS by the end of the period, with some model to model and run to run difference in timing of individual waves. Overall, a gradual warming trend should begin around the end of the period. Monday and Tuesday should average out the warmest days of the period, with upper 80s to lower 90s common outside of the highest terrain. Then a reprieve from the recent heat and humidity should follow through the rest of the period with near normal to a couple of degrees below normal highs. Dewpoints should fall sufficiently so that under the influence of high pressure some valley lows may reach the upper 50s for Thu night and Fri night. A few locations may be able to break the cap on Monday and or Tuesday, but with the ridge dominating and little if any mid level support, coverage should be minimal. Then some height falls and an approaching shortwave and cold front should lead to at least isolated coverage on Wednesday. Enough moisture may linger across the southeastern part of the area for isolated diurnally driven convection on Thursday, then as the drier airmass becomes more entrenched dry weather should follow in all areas for Thursday night and Friday. Uncertainty remains at the end of the period and as moisture begins to increase, the cap may be able to be broken in a few locations on Saturday for a few stray showers or thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Convection finally died out late in the evening, and a quiet finish to the night should now be in store. Will look for fog to develop in the typical valley locations. Expect most TAF sites to have relatively minimal impacts from it. KSJS stands the greatest chance of having a period of IFR conditions for a couple hours around sunrise. Any fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning, leaving mainly VFR to finish the period. The exception will be localized IFR in scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be less than 10kts.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...HAL

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