Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311745 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JVM

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