Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010843 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC. AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST +5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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