Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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240 FXUS63 KJKL 270805 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 405 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 A few rain showers will move across portions of eastern Kentucky through around dawn this morning. The showers should be out of the area by 12Z. The latest runs of the NAM12, GFS, and HRRR models, along with the latest MOS data, all support this scenario, so the forecast was modified accordingly to reflect this. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist through late this morning, with the clouds expected to gradually scatter out and move out of the area by late this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, near calm winds, and valley fog will be on tap for late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap for Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to run well below normal today, with highs in the low to mid 70s anticipated. We should see a return to closer to normal temperatures on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Highs on Wednesday should be able to climb into the lower 80s for most locations. With clear and calm conditions expected tonight, we may see some valleys fall into the upper 40s, while the surrounding ridges drop into the lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 405 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 A relatively dry air mass will still be in place at the start of the period. However, surface high pressure will be to our east, and flow around it will have advection of warm and moist air underway. With mainly clear skies, this will promote ridge/valley low temperature differences for at least the first couple of nights. The increasing moisture will eventually lead to more clouds and the possibility of precip. It begins with a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Up until that point the flow aloft will be weak and zonal. An upper low dropping southeast toward the Great Lakes will cause some buckling, with the westerlies dropping southward late in the week. This allows a weakening cold front to drop to the Ohio Valley over the weekend, presenting our best chance of rain on Saturday. The upper low and trough lift out to the northeast late in the weekend, and the surface front loses momentum and definition. Even though no significant change in air mass is expected, the probability of rain will drop off with the departure of the upper level system at the start of the new week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 VFR conditions look to hold on through the period. Clouds will thicken and lower to around 6k feet agl from northwest to southeast tonight, as a weak cold front approaches. A few showers will threaten from late tonight into Tuesday morning, before chances diminish into the afternoon as the cold front exits. A few thunderstorms may also occur early Tuesday afternoon as daytime heating begins to increase. Some fog may form in river valleys and near bodies of water toward the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds will turn more out of the northwest at around 5 kts once again into Tuesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.