Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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233 FXUS63 KJKL 122100 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ON RADAR...THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE...THOUGH SOME LIGHTER ONES ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRUSHING NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CLEAR PATCHES HAVE FILLED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WHILE DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND BRISK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP ONTARIO LOW WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW THROUGH THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH KENTUCKY IN FAST FLOW AT MID LEVELS. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS PAST THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY EASES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...LOCALLY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NOSE OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY DAWN SUNDAY. THIS NOSE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A STRONG LEAN TOWARD GUIDANCE FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY NIGHT OF COLD ADVECTION UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND ALSO A BRUSH BY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF A FLUFFY CONSISTENCY DUE TO THE COLD AIR WHICH SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM WITH ANY DUSTINGS BASICALLY BLOWING OFF THE COLD ROAD SURFACES. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS STAYING UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL MEAN WIND CHILLS DOWN TOWARD ZERO AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC HIGH THAT FOLLOWS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR ZERO IN THE VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN... PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAY HELP LIMIT THE ABSOLUTE EXTENT OF THE COLD EARLY SUNDAY. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THEN LOW SINGLE DIGITS AFTER THAT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 ...CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY INCREASING... A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH SNOWFALL RATES BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...MODELS STILL IN NOT GREAT AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS/NAM SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF SNOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THUS...SITUATION REMAINS VERY MUDDLED...AND WILL STICK WITH A MENTION OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PER THE GFS AND NAM WOULD OBVIOUSLY GIVE US MORE SNOW FOR THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWS TO THE AREA. AGAIN...MODELS ARE FAR APART ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...LIKELY CAUSED BY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE WARMING UP AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 THE STEADIER SNOW WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY ON...VIS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO IFR AT LOZ AND TO MVFR AT JKL AND SJS. OTHERWISE...VCSH WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT MOST SITES WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. CIGS...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING RUNNING GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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