Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240244 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF. CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST. PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL. MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER. FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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