Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010726 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD. FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TAF STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS. THE ONLY TAF STATION THAT IS IN DANGER OF IFR OR LOWER IS SME. THEY IS A ZERO SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ALREADY...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. AT THE OTHER TAF STATIONS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS SOME STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE STORMS IF THE MOVE ACROSS A TAF STATION. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JJ

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