Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040719 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO 500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE. HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULDPROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD... ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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