Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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825 FXUS63 KJKL 270757 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 357 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 A weakening upper low churning across Michigan with a trailing trough through the western Ohio River Valley will continue to move east this morning. However, a positive tilt to this southern trough axis suggests continued shearing apart and subsequently diminishing upper forcing for ascent. This has been evidenced in light rain shower/virga activity back across western to central Kentucky where shower coverage and intensity have both been hampered by a lack of forcing as well as a dry boundary layer. A weak front/wind shift stretching from lower Michigan through north-central Indiana and back through central Illinois will move toward eastern Kentucky later this morning and this afternoon, providing the best chance of any lift for precipitation. Sounding profiles suggest some very meager instability attempting to materialize, but lack of forcing aloft combined with a mute change in airmass should hinder the possibility of thunder with capping remaining in place as cloud cover keeps the surface/boundary layer from warming substantially underneath non-cooling temperature profiles aloft. Still expecting highs this afternoon to make it into the mid-upper 60s in the Bluegrass region with 70s generally taking shape elsewhere. Showers will end this evening across the higher terrain as drier air filters into eastern Kentucky ahead of a surface ridge building across the Ohio River Valley. Given placement of this ridge just about directly overhead by daybreak, and valley temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, inserted areas of dense valley fog with crossover temperatures easily being reached with drier air likely not seeping into the valleys before mixing ensues Friday morning. Patchy fog should be in the offing elsewhere as dry air advection should end shortly after midnight, giving radiational cooling plenty of time to work. Clearing skies will continue for Friday as warm air filters into the region thanks to upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights of greater than 580 decameters and 850 mb temperatures of 11-13C will spell quickly rebounding temperatures, with highs making it well into the 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 ...Record Highs Possible Saturday...Monday...Tuesday...and Wednesday... The main highlight this weekend through most of next week will be the warm weather as several record highs may be broken through next Wednesday. Strong ridging will be in place over the Southeast CONUS into the start of the weekend with southwest flow established across southeast Kentucky. This will pump in abnormally warm air for the end of October into Kentucky. 850mb temperatures will be a tad higher than on Wednesday, supporting highs around 80 degrees. The surface high will be suppressed south on Sunday as a weak cold front pushes south across the Ohio River Valley. Once again, moisture and forcing are lacking with this front and should do nothing more than provide a brief reprieve from record warmth and a slight uptick in cloud cover. By Monday, the ridge builds back over the southeast, then slowly strengthens and retrogrades back to the west through midweek. Heights will again build across the region early in the week with 850mb temperatures climbing to near +14C or +15C by Tuesday. This is again higher than we will see on Saturday, so this could support highs creeping into the lower 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday. With November being ushered in on Tuesday of next week, some of our all time record highs for November may be threatened with monthly records sitting at 82 for both London and Jackson. Daily records also will be attainable from Monday through Wednesday with many of them sitting around or just above 80 degrees. With guidance suffering too much from climatology, have kept highs well above guidance for Saturday and much of next week. As the ridge retrogrades back to the west through next week, we should see overnight lows gradually get cooler as we lose the gradient. Models continue to slow down the system for the end of the week, due to the strength of the ridge, so no rain would threaten the area until at least Friday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 VFR conditions will begin the period, before ceilings begin to lower later this morning and this afternoon as a front pushes toward eastern Kentucky complete with isolated showers. Not currently expecting widespread sub-VFR ceilings, but will likely see these approach the low end of the VFR range. Southwesterly low level wind shear will impact all sites near FL020 through about mid morning. Will see this threat diminish as mixing ensues and southwest surface winds increase to 10-12 knots with gusts of up to 20-25 knots through this afternoon. Winds will veer westerly through the afternoon as a front approaches eastern Kentucky, with lighter west/northwest winds materializing this evening around 5 knots. Given low expected rainfall amounts, not banking on widespread fog outside of valleys tonight, so will therefore keep VFR criteria in play toward the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.