Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241810 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED IF THERE WERE A FEW DROPS OR SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND IN SPOTS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE OR THREAT OF SPRINKLES IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE UPDATE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING BEHIND EXPECTED LEVELS IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS LINERGED A BIT LONGER TODAY. TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS - RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK. FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL. TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THE FOREACAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED IF THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY

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