Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240954 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 454 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WILL END UP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF LULL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LIFT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY 9 OR 10 AM...WITH ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THE MIDDAY LULL IN PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR ONE MORE DAY. FINALLY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THOUGH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES...WE MAY GENERATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...AND STRONG 850MB WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTIVE SUPPORT FOR WINDS...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT 40+ MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL FARTHER SOUTH...BUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER ALSO SEEMS IN ORDER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AT 850MB. BEST THREAT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AFTER 17Z AND BEFORE 03Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUITE DOWN SOME THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL STAY MILD ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW CHANCES. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ALIGN GOOD ENOUGH TONIGHT WE COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET LATE TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT WE SHOULD DEFINITELY SEE A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO PLAN TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 30S ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO EJECT FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. OVER TIME...A RATHER BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN EAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL WITH THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN WEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SFC WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY SLOWER BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND IS ALSO STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LAST SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA TUE OR WED. DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLDER AIR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF RUN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SUPPORT A WET END TO THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN FAVORS A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THU NIGHT AS SKIES WILL HAVE CLEARED OR SHOULD BE CLEARING AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA. A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER MILD DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR MILDER LOWS ON FRI NIGHT...BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. SATURDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION A GENERALLY NW TO SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 228 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER IN THE PRESENT WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...AGAIN THIS SHOULD NOT BE PERSISTENT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY ALSO BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...CIGS SHOULD LOWER BACK TO MVFR AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BORDERING ON IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...RAIN WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN ABOVE 2500 FEET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>112-114-118>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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