Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 032105 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF KY...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. STILL HAVE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS...INCLUDING THUNDER...FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP TRENDING BACK ON THIS A BIT GIVEN THE ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR ANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AT ANY TIME...SO MAY END UP KEEPING WITH THE ONGOING CHANCES TO BE SAFE. UPDATED THE FORECAST /ZFP AND SAF/ TO TAKE OUT ANY MORNING WORDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ALONG NORTH CENTRAL KY AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT THINGS TO EVENTUALLY START SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 ARE NOT SHOWING THIS TRANSITION UNTIL THIS EVENING /CLOSER TO 3Z/...A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED/ANTICIPATED. AS SUCH...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GOOD INITIATION OF THESE HI RES MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE MAKING IT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA...SO KEPT WITH A LIKELY/DEFINITE POP FROM THIS POINT ON. ALSO...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOR THESE PARAMETERS WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS AND RADAR TRENDS. HAD SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH RESPECT TO LIGHT FREEZING DZ...RA. TEMPS ARE RISING ABOVE FREEZING NOW. WILL LET CURRENT SPS FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE AT 9 AM. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE ZONES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INTO A LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ISSUE WITH THIS WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE PRECIP IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF SOME FREEZING PRECIP DOES DEVELOP...AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH IT. THE SECOND CONCERN IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TODAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS MODIFIED AS A RESULT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE. IT STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AND WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DUE TO RECENTLY MELTED SNOW...THE GROUND IS ALREADY COMPLETELY SATURATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO BEGIN CAUSING PROBLEMS. BASED ON CURRENT HYDRO FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THERE WILL ALSO BE POINTS ALONG THE KENTUCKY BASIN THAT MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...SUCH AS AT RAVENNA. THE TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MAY EVEN APPROACH 60 IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS WHERE OUR SECOND AND PERHAPS MORE SERIOUS FORECAST CONCERN LIES. ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH A STRONG FEED OF GULF MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO OVERRIDE THE SLUGGISH COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I634 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. AS MORE AND MORE COLD AIR MOVES IN...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM A MESSY WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 0Z THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE AT THE START OF THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM12 BY FAR HAS THE MOST WELL DEFINED LAYER OF WARM AIR AMONGST THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SLEET IN OUR NORTHER AND LESS SNOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE BOTH SHOWING A MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED WARM NOSE ALOFT AND THEREFORE MORE SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...GOING WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO START THE EVENT AND LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE WWD FORECAST IS CURRENTLY PREDICTING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE (AND QUIET WEATHER) WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS... WITH A FEW SPOTS IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES... WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE COLD SNAP APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY...GENERALLY PUSHING JUST NORTH OF EASTERN KY...MISSING MOST OF THE TAF SITES. AS SUCH...TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THOUGH SOME VCSH OR VCTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER 0Z...EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS KY. WITH INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE /DUE TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER NORTHERLY AIR INTERACTING WITH MOIST SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO/...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. BY OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOSE OUR INSTABILITY...BUT RAIN WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING TAF SITES GOING BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF VIS AND CIGS LIFR AND BELOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ068- 069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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