Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 350 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS. FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA... WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JVM

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