Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210302 AAC AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1102 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Showers have dissipated across the region with only some debris clouds remaining. Some valley locations in the east have already reached the upper 60s while ridgetop locations and some more open terrain locations closer to the Interstate 75 corridor are in the mid to upper 70s. The previous forecast remains on target for the most part. Valley fog should again develop with high pressure dominating, but should have less areal coverage than last night with a drier airmass in place. UPDATE Issued at 812 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 A few light showers are moving across the Lake Cumberland Region and additional weakening showers are approaching that region at this time. Deeper moisture and higher dewpoints remain across this area although sunset occurs in less than an hour. Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm remain possible for locations near and west of Interstate 75 although activity should continue to weaken overall and dissipate by 10 PM. UPDATE Issued at 530 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Hourly pops have been increased slightly on the western and southwestern fringe of the CWA generally for locations nearer to or to the west of Interstate 75 to the isolated range. Activity over portions of the Bluegrass region and Central KY could survive into this region or the outflows from this could lead to at least a shower developing prior to sunset. This area has higher sfc dewpoints on average and PW is closer to the 1.4 to 1.5 inch rain in this area and this area lies closer to the PW gradient. Any activity should wane with the loss of daytime heating. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Thursday night. MCS activity to our northwest may throw some debris cloudiness overhead from time to time, but dry air in place over east Kentucky should keep any precip just to our west. This dry air, with dewpoints noted as low as the mid and upper 50s in a few locations this afternoon, will allow temperatures tonight to fall back into the 60s. Highs tomorrow should warm to around 90, but again with bearable humidity levels. Models then indicate our low level flow veers to more of a southerly direction Thursday night, which will set us up for higher dewpoint air to advect in for Friday and beyond. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 245 EDT wed JUL 20 2016 The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a persistent mid/upper level ridge across the southern United States. This will result in hot humid weather into the weekend. Heat index values during the afternoon are expected to be around 100 in some locations from Friday into Sunday, and possibly on Monday. A series of short waves will move west to east along the northern periphery of the ridge, with the most significant wave early next week. This particular wave and associated surface low will help push a cold front towards the area Monday, and it is on Monday that the best chance for thunderstorms will exist. With the ridge in our area being somewhat suppressed next week, temperatures will remain above average, but not as warm as this weekend. A couple of items of note: Timing of any specific short wave remains uncertain, and there will be at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period. The best chance as supported by a blended model approach appears to be Monday. Another area of uncertainty is the afternoon temperature forecast for the weekend, as maximum temperatures will depend on how much debris cloudiness moves across the area from any upstream convection, and how much convection occurs locally. Generally the model blends are indicating slightly lower, but still well above average high temperatures for the weekend, as compared to our current forecast maximums. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 81 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 A stray shower or perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for locations generally west of Interstate 75 through about 2Z, but most locations should remain dry. VCSH and VFR CIG around 5KFT was used at both SME and LOZ to reflect this. Otherwise, with high pressure dominating, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with one caveat. Patchy valley fog will develop around or just after 6Z at non TAF site locations. With a drier airmass in place compared to 24 hours ago, particularly at the three eastern sites of JKL, SYM, SJS, there should be less coverage of fog than on Wednesday morning. Winds will be light and variable and average less than 10KT. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JP

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