Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260728 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REIGN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING TRAVERSING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TAKE AIM AT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING PERIODS OF ADVERTISED WEAKER FORCING...AS MODELS TEND TO INFLATE THE CONVECTION IN GENERAL. THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONE OR TWO OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOZ AND SME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SYM MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER IN AN HOUR OR SO...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE SYM 6Z TAF. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST DATA...THE 15 TO 16Z TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE WHEN ALL OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE A SHOT AT EXPERIENCING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AROUND 1Z TONIGHT. AFTER THAT THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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