Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191739 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 139 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 1130Z ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SOME SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AS WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT FORECAST TO RIDE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY BOUNDARIES WITH ONE ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND ONE ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER WITH ENOUGH REMNANT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP IN THESE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MAINLY ALONG THESE VAGUE BUT PRESENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. DESPITE ALL OF THIS...THE LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAS LEFT US WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG HAS BEEN THE CASE. BECAUSE OF THIS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UNTIL 14Z THIS MORNING. WILL LET THIS RIDE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. HEADING INTO TODAY...THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS A CONTINUED POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THOUGH WEAK...A SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM...A QUITE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PRESENT OVER IA AND WI AND TAKING AIM AT THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE DIFFERENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND JUST IN THE PAST COUPLE HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF THIS. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE TONIGHT PORTION AS TIMING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING IN THE TONIGHT PORTION. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOME CAPPING SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DUE TO DEPARTING WEAK RIDGING THAT SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPER CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT BUT WITH THE DAYS HEATING DWINDLING...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN WEST IN CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND WITH SOME LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE WAVE THAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERALL...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY PEDESTRIAN FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY EARLIER ARRIVAL WITH THE WAVE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IN THERE LIES THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHARPER TROUGHING RESIDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME...STALLING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GULF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR HEAT TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE AID OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELING SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE INTERFACE OF THE PASSING GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH AND THE GULF RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN LEND MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO JUST SOME ISOLATED BUILD UPS DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS GIVING WAY TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS TONIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SBH

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