Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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505 FXUS63 KJKL 202332 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 732 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Current radar mosaic is showing isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region with slightly better coverage across central portions of the Commonwealth. Expect this activity will continue for a few more hours before waning around sunset. Models are in good agreement through the short term. Additional short wave energy will drop down into the area tomorrow on the south side of a developing mid/upper level ridge. This ridge will nose its way northeastward through the period, expanding from the southern plains into the mid Mississippi Valley overnight, and then into the Great Lakes by end of the day Thursday. Sensible weather will see another night with fog. However, while the fog will be locally dense in places expectations are that the overall coverage and intensity should not be quite as bad as last night. With short wave energy riding along the southeastern edge of the ridge Thursday, can not rule out another day of isolated convection across the area tomorrow, similar to the last couple of afternoons. Temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees above normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 The period will be controlled by upper level ridging moving across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and surface high nosing south from time to time. This well established ridge will keep the tropical systems well away from the Ohio Valley. The only issue will be the potential for mainly valley fog and slight ridge valley temperature splits in the morning. However, towards the end of the long term period we do see signs of the eastern lower 48 ridge breaking down, and this will allow for slightly cooler afternoon temperatures (closer to average for this time of year) and lowering heights. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Most showers have died out as of TAF issuance, and the primary concern for non-VFR weather will be fog late tonight and into Thursday morning. It will develop in valleys first, but then spread in breadth and depth. All TAF sites are expected to end up affected. The fog will be dense in many locations, with VLIFR conditions. It will dissipate by late Thursday morning, giving way to mainly VFR conditions for the rest of the period. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms developing on Thursday afternoon, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway. They could bring localized IFR conditions. However, the probability at any given time/point is too low to warrant inclusion in TAFs. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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