Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220555 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 155 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Looks like the convection will stay off to the north and east of the CWA through the rest of the night per the radar trends and latest HRRR/NAM12. However, the high clouds associated with the northern storms will likely affect our northern tier. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear allowing for some ridge to valley differences to continue through the night. Fog formation for the river valleys is anticipated similar to the last few nights as the high clouds should not hinder its development - particularly in the south. Have tweaked the forecast to lower PoPs through dawn and adjust sky cover mainly based on the latest satellite loops and extrapolation. Also, incorporated the latest T/Td obs and their trends to the near term grids. These have all been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1044 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed further north of the area, along the outflow from the earlier convection this evening. The remnants of this, have been spreading some light rain across our far northeast counties. Have held onto some some isolated showers over the next hour or so, as this remnant gradually diminishes off to the east, while any new convection initiates further northeast into southern Ohio. Otherwise, mostly clear skies reign south of I-64, with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s in the cooler valleys, to the lower 80s in some of the broader valleys and ridgetops. Organized convection upstream in Illinois and Indiana will spread some high clouds near and north of I-64 by around 06z and thereafter, but the associated precipitation continues to look to stay north of our area through the overnight. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 Isolated convection initiated north of I-64 early this evening. This is on the demise now, as outflow from earlier storms gradually lifts to the northeast. Ongoing more organized convection up in Illinois looks to stay to our north through the rest of the night, so will keep the area dry. Consequently, have reduced the sky cover and played up the valley fog a bit more. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s looks on target, although did nudge a few valley readings down a bit more based on the trends in observations. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 Convection associated with the MCS that moved across OH affected the northern part of our forecast area this morning, but the convection quickly dissipated as it moved into the northern part of our forecast area. A couple of outflows were associated with this with one pushing into VA where more convection was triggered, and a secondary residual boundary which remains across the central part of the forecast area. It is still possible something could develop along this residual boundary late this afternoon and evening. Satellite also shows an MCV across IN with convection beginning to develop in west central IN, and there is yet another MCS across WI. The HRRR is not showing much development this evening over IN with the MCV, but latches onto the system now in WI. Both the NAM and GFS point towards the possibility of convection across the north early tonight, possibly associated with the Indiana MCV. The ECMWF points towards a chance in the north closer to dawn as the main MCS now in WI passes by to our north. For the near term forecast have leaned towards the HRRR with support from the ECMWF. This results in lower rain chances for tonight than either the GFS or NAM MOS. As we move into Saturday another steamy day is on tap with maximum forecasts mostly in the lower 90s and heat indices near 100. How much convection we see on Saturday is still in question and followed the standard model blend for rain chances Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 The period begins with a upper level short wave trough and associated surface low pushing SSE across the northern Great Lakes. This will progress on into the northeastern U.S. early next week, with the associated cold front moving across our area on Monday. At this point it appears the best chance for showers and storms will be Sunday afternoon even though the front won`t clear the area until Monday. The front looks to stall to our south next week. This will result in temperatures closer to normal, but with at least a small chance of daily showers and storms especially in the southern part of the forecast area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, as we remain under the waning influence of an upper level ridge. Patchy MVFR or worse fog will be seen in the deeper river valleys once again through 12z. Some relatively drier air did mix down at SME and LOZ this past afternoon. As such, have only kept the window of MVFR fog prevailing at SME to between 09 and 12z. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible for much of eastern Kentucky during the afternoon hours, but confidence is too low to include VCTS at any site for Saturday, at the current time. Light and variable winds through the rest of the night will increase to between 5 and 10 kts out of the west southwest by Saturday afternoon.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.