Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172019 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 319 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 315 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge extended from the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico the north to off the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, a general area of troughing extended from Ontario southwest to the Mid MS Valley Region and then southwest and then south into the Four Corners Region and Northwestern Mexico. Within this trough, a lead shortwave in southwest flow was currently moving across the Lower OH Valley Region with a more significant shortwave trough moving across the MS Valley Region and nearing the Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley region. Another upper level low was currently centered over the Southern Rockies and Norther Mexico. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the Great Lakes region with the trailing cold front nearing Eastern KY. This evening and tonight, the mid level shortwave trough should progress across the Great Lakes and OH valley area with the axis of this trough nearing the WV and VA borders by around dawn. The cold front meanwhile should move into VA this evening. Scattered to possibly numerous showers will remain possible until the cold front moves through. Sfc high pressure will begin building into the area. However, some low level moisture will persist even behind the cold front and with the shortwave trough axis yet to cross the area clouds, and isolated to scattered showers or light drizzle will be possible as the low level flow becomes more upslope. Behind the front some stratus build down fog will also be possible. The moisture depth is a bit in question so confidence in timing or extent of any drizzle is not all that high. The shortwave trough axis should depart during the morning hours, and with this so should the threat for any isolated showers or drizzle. Any stratus build down fog should also diminish. The upper level ridge axis should approach tomorrow afternoon with rising heights in the afternoon and evening. However, the ridge axis will be shifting east of the area Wednesday night. At the same time, the upper level low will have meandered into the Central and Southern Plains. Low pressure and an associated warm front at the surface will begin to approach late and moisture and isentropic lift will increase across the OH and TN Valley late. An increase in high clouds is expected late and mid clouds may move into the Lake Cumberland Region. However, the threat for showers should hold off until sometime on Thursday. This should allow some valley locations to experience lows in the low to mid 30s on Wednesday night, which would be warmer than average for late January but colder than the past several mornings outside of the northern counties. Valley fog should also develop, but the extent is uncertain due to the increase in clouds late. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 258 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017 Good model agreement continues into the upcoming weekend. An active pattern will continue into early next week with several rounds of showers expected. The added rainfall, combined with rivers already running high could lead to some high water issues as we head into early next week. However, confidence on actual amounts remains low, so will continue to leave out any flooding concerns into next week. The first round of rain will move in on Thursday and Thursday night as a shortwave trough pushes northeast across the region. Good forcing and lift will yield widespread showers. As the trough exits north on Friday, conditions will temporarily dry out, especially by Friday afternoon. Looks like dry weather should last through Saturday, although models are showing some support for a few widely isolated showers on Saturday. Moisture is fairly limited and lack of any significant forcing will keep the chance of rain out of the forecast for now. If a shower were to pop up, best shot would be somewhere across central Kentucky. As we head late into the weekend, chances are increasing of a large cut off low developing across the deep south, then slowly pinwheeling up the spine of the Appalachians. This slow moving system could bring an extended period of rainfall to the area late Saturday night through Monday night. Depending on the exact track of this system will determine exactly how much rain we receive. If southeast downsloping flow prevails through much of the time, it would eat away at potential rainfall. For now, going to go high on the rain chances through this period with more of the uncertainty falling on actual amounts. It certainly looks like it will be a mild and damp period which has been the theme lately. It looks like a brief shot of more normal temperatures for January will drop in by Tuesday, but again this may just be a quick shot before we start to warm again. Right now, no threat of any wintry weather for eastern Kentucky through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017 MVFR is currently observed across the area with some IFR locally in showers near the VA border. MVFR and possibly brief periods of VFR in breaks in the clouds should prevail through the 21Z to 3Z period in norther section with showers possible. Shower and perhaps a stray thunderstorm near JKL, SME, and LOZ are also possible during this period. Some IFR will also be possible during that time near the TN and VA borders. Otherwise, low level moisture should return from the north and west behind the front and MVFR or IFR expected to return and generally persist through the end of the period. Some stratus build down fog and mist will also be possible 3Z to 15Z especially on ridges. Southwest winds will be gusty initially sustained generally 10 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 25 KT or so. These should diminish and become more west during the 21Z to 0Z period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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