Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271740 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OUR WEST. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP JUST SOUTH OF THE JKL OFFICE IN THE LAST HALF HOUR...BUT ARE QUITE LOW AND LIGHT. WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY ACTUAL PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND OUT OF THIS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY UPDATES TO POPS NEED TO BE MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW...RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE GFS...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS IS ALSO STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY THE GFS SOLUTION HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MID TERM WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARDS CONSENSUS...WHICH IS DRY. FROM THERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS SWINGING A THIRD MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIGGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS STILL BRING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT...WITH SIMILAR SFC FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AT THE END OF FORECAST WINDOW. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT SUBJECT MATTER CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD WEATHER AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING. VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINTS AT THE SFC IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN RANGE WILL MAKE FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...SLIGHTLY EAST OF OUR AREA WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AT BEST. SO WE CAN EXPECT A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DID BRING TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY IN OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES...INTO THE LOWER 20S...AS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR NEXT WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN AROUND -10C. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 DESPITE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...MOST OF EASTERN KY REMAINS UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KY AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CIGS COULD DROP DOWN TO 3KT FEET AROUND THE SAME TIME...HOVERING THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. JUST INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN RELATION TO THE AIRPORT SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING CAUSING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE. CIGS SHOULD BOUNCE BACK UP TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JMW

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