Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231748 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN THE EAST. THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

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