Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290007 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 807 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE MINDFUL OF. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN AIRMASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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