Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 061518 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE IT IN THE HWO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN OVER A WEEK. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON RIDGES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...HAL

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