Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280158 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 958 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 LATEST UPDATE JUST INCORPORATES LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 HAVE EXPANDED 20 PERCENT POP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z RUN SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE...AND ANOTHER AREA OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL RESIDE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER THAN TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE ARE ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN BORDER. WINDS WILL REMAIN && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...HAL

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