Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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487 FXUS63 KJKL 291458 AAB AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1058 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1058 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Minor adjustments have been made to the hourly grids based on observations and radar trends. This led to a bit higher pops across the western part of the CWA just west of JKL over the next couple of hours where a narrow broken line of showers is moving slowly east and lowered pops over the next couple of hours along the VA border as moisture and showers on the outer edges of the circulation of TD Bonnie is struggling to make it much further west than I 77 corridor in WV and VA or into portions of NE TN. Additional isolated to scattered convection should develop during peak heating as a shortwave trough slowly approaches from the west. Coverage should be a bit greater than yesterday more in the scattered range due to some mid level forcing. UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Did a quick update to add in a potential for isolated thunderstorms in the morning portion of the forecast. Also removed fog from the grids and adjusted T/Td/Sky/PoPs per the latest observations and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers, along with a freshened set of zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 07z SFC analysis shows relative high pressure over East Kentucky early this morning as low pressure is found off to the northwest as well as to the southeast associated with landfalling Tropical Storm Bonnie. Mainly just some mid and high level clouds are around the CWA - some loosely connected to the tropical system. This is likely helping to keep the fog at bay for most places this morning, though not enough to limit the development of a ridge to valley temperature split. As such, readings vary from the low 60s in the more sheltered valleys of the east to the upper 60s on the ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are in the muggy category for another night, running from the low to mid 60s. Winds are light and variable with a clean radar scope at this hour. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict general ridge conditions through the southeast, but one that has been hollowed out by the arrival of the tropical storm into the Carolinas. At the same time as the mid level energy arrives from the tropics, a trough will brush by Kentucky to the northwest resulting in a gradual decrease in heights for the area into Monday. Again the mesoscale will be the more dominant driver of the weather details with the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 favored for forecast specifics. Sensible weather will feature a bit of valley fog around this morning followed by another warm day. The models suggest that the best chances for convection will be over the eastern portion of the CWA and that makes sense with the higher terrain helping to initiate convection in an environment with little lower level shear, but ample instability. The downstream influence of T.S. Bonnie, resulting from from its broad region of uplift around its core and areas of subsidence/enhancement spreading out from the center, though weakening with distance, may be enough to give the east an extra shot at convection later today. Accordingly, have given the highest PoPs to those parts and lesser amounts to the west. The NAM12 depicts this well and the gridded forecast - pretty much followed suit. Another concern, affecting the area later in the day and into the night, is a weak front sliding southeast into the Ohio Valley possibly initiating more storms thanks mainly to the inherent instability. This boundary could bring isolated to scattered storms to the area well into the night as it settles into far southeast Kentucky late tonight. Have kept a small chance for this in the forecast along with a potential renewal of convection in the far southeast on Monday, while the rest of the area enjoys a pleasant, warm, and dry Memorial Day. Again used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of the weather elements with small to moderate adjustments to temperatures at night for ridge to valley splits. Also, upped temps a notch today and Monday. As for PoPs, ended up lower to the MAV guidance thinking that the best chances will be further east today compared to the MET offering. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 The first part of the long term period will be mostly dry as surface high pressure builds into East Kentucky Monday evening. The only exception will be along the southeast Kentucky border where a few afternoon showers may pop up as a cold front exits the region. The dry, but warm weather will persist through Wednesday. Moisture and humidity will then begin increasing again as a low pressure system approaches the region. This system will bring a cold front into East Kentucky by Thursday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase throughout the day, as the front approaches, with the best chance for thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening. If this ideal timing holds true, there will be a chance for at least some strong storms. The frontal boundary may stall somewhere in the region Thursday night through at least Friday, keeping the weather unsettled. There is a chance that an upper level shortwave trough will move through Kentucky on Saturday, kicking the frontal boundary south of the area. However, confidence is low this far out in the forecast on where the boundary will set up and for how long. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through Thursday. A cold front will move through most of the region by Thursday evening, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal values. This cool airmass will allow afternoon high temperatures to stay in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A few showers or a thunderstorm may be seen across the forecast area this morning, with better convective potential anticipated for the afternoon. Based on current activity and near term trends have expanded the VCTS to include the SYM and JKL sites in addition to continuing it at SJS, albeit a tad earlier than the 06z TAF. Should any TAF site see rain today some MVFR fog can be expected later tonight at that location. For now have just included it in SJS. Look for winds to remain light, at around 5 kts or less, throughout the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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