Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241908 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 308 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Update over the last hour included just minor changes, mainly to make sure the near term grids for the temps, dew points, and winds were on track with the current conditions. Also made some minor changes to the pops and weather for the rest of today based on current conditions and latest hires model data. This should keep precip chances out of the CWA through the day. No changes to the ongoing forecast package were needed with this update. UPDATE Issued at 921 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Conditions have cleared out across eastern KY this mid morning in respect to any precipitation, with just some lingering mid and high clouds remaining across the region. Took out mention of sprinkles in the weather group, and also freshened up the near- term temp, dew point, and wind forecast with the latest observations. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was sent out to remove sprinkles wording this morning. UPDATE Issued at 612 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 A few showers have popped up on radar across Indiana and Ohio over the past hour. These showers are associated with the remnants of an overnight MCS that affected Iowa and Missouri. For now, they appear to be tracking to the east/northeast. However, some of the convective models track a few of these showers across far northern Kentucky later this morning into the early afternoon. Additionally, the convective models indicate some diurnal convection along the Tennessee/Kentucky border so decided to keep slight pops in both of these areas today. Also freshened up the hourly temps and sky cover to reflect recent trends. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 352 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Moisture continues to increase across the region this morning with west to southwest flow in place at the surface up to mid/upper levels. This has allowed mid and high level clouds to increase in coverage and dew points to rise towards the mid 60s. Luckily, this increase in cloud cover has kept most fog development at bay early this morning. While shower activity should be sparse today, there may be just enough moisture and lift to spark off a few showers this afternoon. This shouldn`t be a big deal as widespread mid and upper level forcing is absent during the day. On Thursday, a cold front extending from a surface low along the United States/Canadian border, will shift towards the Ohio Valley. The front will attempt to cross into Kentucky but is expected to weaken and fall apart as it runs into a dominate upper ridge in place over the southeastern CONUS. In fact, the upper ridge is expected to reinforce itself over Kentucky Thursday afternoon, limiting any shower activity to the northern and eastern counties during the morning hours. Skies will begin to clear Thursday afternoon/evening as surface high pressure builds back into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s today and tomorrow, with some locations hitting that 90 degree mark on Thursday. Humidity will also be higher, making for more muggy and uncomfortable conditions through the short term. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 A stout upper level ridge will dominate our weather into early next week. This will keep temperatures much warmer than normal and muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Isolated showers/storms will be possible each day over the weekend into early next week in the warm and humid airmass. It appears the ridge will weaken slightly by the end of the period, possibly allowing a cold front to sag into the region. The front appears very weak in the models so will keep PoPs low and diurnally influenced even during these periods. Models keep any influences from a potential tropical system developing in the Caribbean to our south and east through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few showers are thunderstorms are possible today and tonight but are expected to be very isolated in nature and therefore have kept them out of the TAFs. Additionally, with a more humid air mass in place, valley fog is possible again tonight and could therefore reduce visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times. Winds will generally be between 5 to 10 knots from the south/southwest. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JVM

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