Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251510 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1010 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 14z sfc analysis and radar imagery show a cold front slicing through eastern Kentucky. This is represented by a narrow line of showers and a wind shift to the northwest along with some gusts up to 30 mph. Clouds cover the area - low in the east and higher in the west. Meanwhile, readings vary from the mid 40s in the northwest parts of the area behind the cold front to the mid 50s in the southeast where southwest winds continue. Dewpoints likewise, range from the low 40s northwest to the low and mid 50s east. The rain threat ends with the front passing through during the next few hours for the JKL CWA with clouds lifting and breaking up this afternoon from west to east. Temperatures will be tricky with the CAA battling insolation today - expect some rebound in the northwest with steady or slowly falling values in the southeast. Have updated the forecast to linger the thicker clouds a bit longer into the first part of the afternoon and to fine tune the temps and dewpoints through the rest of the day. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Will likely issue a fresh set of zones and HWO once the cold front is through to clear out the shower mentions. UPDATE Issued at 738 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 Widespread rains have shifted to our east and southeast early this morning, so have let the flood watch expire as scheduled. The cold front is now just making it in across area, with some scattered showers developing along it. Some wind gusts to around 30 mph have been noted upstream with the frontal passage, and will play this up in the HWO through the morning. Have freshened up the POPs through this morning to account for the timing of the front. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 A surface cold front is currently moving across western Kentucky, with the main precipitation shield making steady progress to the east out ahead of the boundary. The leading edge of the more intense convection has exited eastern Kentucky with mainly moderate rains following in its wake. Will let the Flood Watch ride through 7 am, given the ongoing rainfall, but the flood threat is diminishing and will likely let this expire as scheduled. The front will move through the area after 7 am, with gusty west winds up to 30 mph occurring for a time. Most locations should be rain-free by around noon, with some clouds hanging on into the afternoon, as west southwest flow continues aloft. Highs will be cooler today, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight into Monday, a mid-level trough axis will dampen as it heads east from the Plains to the Appalachians. While deeper moisture will be well southeast of our area, enough lift associated with upper level support may brush our southeastern counties with some showers. As such, will hold onto low chance POPs. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass, to the lower 40s across the southeast. Highs on Monday will be similar to today, generally around the 60 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 The models are in general agreement with a fairly amplified long wave pattern to continue across the CONUS. Details for the middle and late work week are still a little murky, but confidence is increasing on another bout of wet weather from Wednesday through Thursday for eastern Kentucky. Ridging will start out across the area, with dry weather expected Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture will then be on the increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a southern stream short wave moves across the lower Mississippi Valley. By Thursday, the northern and southern streams look to phase, with a deepening area of low pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the mid- Atlantic by Friday. This looks to be a more dynamic system, with widespread precipitation a good bet across eastern Kentucky, and a potentially very breezy day for Thursday. A decent cool down will occur behind this system, with temperatures dropping back closer to normal readings into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 738 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 A cold front will move across eastern Kentucky through 17z, bringing some scattered showers along with some gusty west winds up to 25 kts for less than an hour across a given location. Have used a TEMPO group at the TAF sites to cover this. MVFR ceilings will occur for a few hours just ahead of and behind the front. VFR conditions will return from west to east late this morning/early afternoon. West winds will diminish into this evening, with mainly just some higher clouds sticking around. Some lowering ceilings are expected towards the Tennessee border late tonight into early Monday morning, as another disturbance passes by to our south. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.