Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231155 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY... BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE CONCERNS. THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED... THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH SAILING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR/GREIF

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