Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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378 FXUS63 KJKL 251741 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Will see isolated to at times scattered showers and thunderstorms develop with increasing instability this afternoon. Development will be limited by a lack of forcing, thus any microscale shortwave impulses and the higher terrain will be the main lifting mechanisms. UPDATE Issued at 1127 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Steady stream of mid-high clouds pushing through central and into eastern Kentucky. Main concentration of precipitation remains focused across far western Kentucky with isolated showers to the east. Still expecting to see isolated to scattered development with diurnal heating this afternoon, with best chances locally in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 More of the same to report in the short term portion of the forecast. The model data all still suggesting a warm and muggy air mass will be in place across the region for the next several days. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal for the rest of the week, with day time highs routinely topping out in the 80s each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. The best time for thunderstorm activity will likely be from the late morning through early evening hours today and tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south at 5 to 10kts during the day time periods and light and variable tonight. Some patchy valley fog will be possible early this morning and again late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 426 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Ridging over the southeast conus will be the most influential feature for our area during the early part of the period. However, we will be along its periphery, and perturbations in the westerlies to our north and west may be enough to bring a few showers and thunder storms at times. The greatest pop will remain further north and west. during the weekend, what would appear to be a subtropical low will move northwest toward the south carolina coast and then slow down. the gfs and ecmwf still disagree on what happens next. the gfs inches the low very slowly to the west or northwest, and allows deep moisture off the atlantic to spiral/pivot well inland over ky. meanwhile, the ecmwf turns the low very slowly to the northeast, and keeps the deep moisture to our east. Being that the system is separated from the westerlies, is handled in different fashions by the models, and is still at a long time range, confidence in the actual outcome is low. with the persistence of the gfs, have allowed for some slightly elevated pops early next week, but only around 30%, as opposed to the 20% pops leading up to that time. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 VFR conditions to largely prevail through early Thursday afternoon as middle to high clouds stream in complete with an afternoon cumulus field. Not expecting any widespread ceilings to threaten VFR criteria, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. Have elected to keep mention out of all TAFs given expected low coverage, but could very well see brief MVFR criteria where a storm passes overhead. South to southwest winds should remain below 10 knots this afternoon before further diminishing this evening and tonight.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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