Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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457 FXUS63 KJKL 140952 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A CONCISE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL SEE THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A SWATH OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING SNOWFALL ON THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA STATE LINE AS OF 4 AM. SNOW WILL BEGIN LOCALLY FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO MONTICELLO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MOUNT STERLING TO WEST LIBERTY TO PAINTSVILLE LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS...RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE GREATEST INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CREATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AS THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. DEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A BROADER TROUGH FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE SAME TRACK MONDAY WILL TRANSITION EVERYTHING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES THROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO LATCH ON TO A WARM NOSE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS. THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR MONTICELLO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW THE LONGEST WHERE THE COLD AIR RESIDES THE LONGEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGING. HEAVY RAIN COULD BEGIN TO CREATE ISSUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS WITH GREATER SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY GOING FORWARD AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH TRAILING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO BE WARMER AND MORE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY MODELS SUGGESTING EVENTUAL LOSS OF ICE. THE CONCERN TRANSITIONS TO HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL ADD TO THE QPF THAT FALLS MONDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD SPELL SOME SORT OF HYDRO ISSUES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS PAINT A HALF OF A INCH PLUS STRIPE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE MODEL BLENDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED FURTHER AS WE BEGIN TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC EVENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BIT BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS REMAIN AS EITHER WE ARE TOO WARM OR LOOSE ICE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE KEPT MUCH OF THIS RAIN BEFORE MIXING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND BACK TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. MODELS DO TRY TO KEEP SOME SORT OF NW FLOW FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THAT OUT. SURFACE HIGH IS POISED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE NE/MID ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE COUPLED RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND EVEN A 588 DAM BAROTROPIC AREA SETTING UP IN THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP BRING A SURGE OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS ALL RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 107 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL ENSUE FROM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE A LIKELIHOOD COME SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL BETTER REFINE TIMING ON THIS BEFORE INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5-10 KNOTS WHILE VEERING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-051-052-104. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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