Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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219 FXUS63 KJKL 232053 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 353 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Current conditions across the area feature the last of the banded rainfall weakening and lifting off to the east as the parent low shifts up the east coast. As this happens tonight, winds will shift around to the north and northwest. This will create a bit of an upslope component allowing for continued cloud cover and shower activity through the night. Therefore will keep at least some chance pops in the grids through tonight. With the event nearly over and the moderate rainfall pushing off to the northeast, will pull the mention of the minor flooding from the HWO. As well, with the moisture fallen over the area, have put in some instances of patchy fog through tonight and into tomorrow morning. For Tuesday, a slow exit for the cloud cover and northwesterly flow will keep highs in the 40s for Tuesday with the shower activity finally coming to an end on Tuesday afternoon. This will finally lead to another brief dry period Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. This will signal the beginning of a pattern change ahead of the next cold front drying out as it reaches the OH valley. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal temperatures. Deep low pressure moving northeast toward the Great Lakes will initially bring us warm air advection as the period starts. One more mild day will result on Wednesday. A cold front trailing from the low will approach late in the day Wednesday and move through in the evening. Moisture return will be limited and occur just ahead of the advancing front, but the 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive with it as compared to yesterday. A model blend supports a POP as high as 50% with fropa near the VA border. POPs to the northwest will be lower, with only 20% used in our Bluegrass region. Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for clouds and flurries/snow showers. There will be multiple impulses moving through the flow aloft. Trying to forecast specifics with these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves passing through the large scale northeast CONUS trough. The strongest impulse is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS now even shows a weak surface feature associated with it.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017 Current conditions across the area feature the swath of rainfall associated with the upper low finally lifting northeast up the east coast as it exits eastern Kentucky. Rainfall will slowly exit the area through the afternoon. However, northerly flow and continued wrap around moisture will keep IFR and below cigs through the rest of the TAF period. Expect winds to remain northerly to northwest at 10 to 20 knots adding to the lingering cloudiness due to upslope. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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