Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281430 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT - HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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