Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 032001 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 301 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The short term period will continue to feature a cold and wet weather pattern, with mostly light rain expected from this evening through the day on Monday. The latest model soundings have trended a bit warmer in the lower levels, so only a few isolated instances of rain/snow mix are expected late tonight into early Monday. An area of low pressure coming out of the southern Plains will be our weather maker through Sunday night. Temperatures during the period will quite cool, with overnight lows in the 30s and highs on Sunday in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A third system, however, is on track to move across the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the departing area of low pressure. Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30 degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow sets up across the region.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Low and middle level cloud cover will continue to plague the airports of eastern Kentucky through early this evening. The result will be a fluctuation between MVFR and VFR CIGS through between 5 and 8Z tonight. Conditions will likely worsen by between 12 and 13Z Sunday, as an area low pressure moves by just to our south, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible at the TAF sites due to low cloud cover and incoming rain showers. The first rain should begin moving into eastern Kentucky between 1 and 2Z this evening. The precipitation will gradually further and further north overnight, with some snow perhaps even mixing with the rain by 6Z. The northern edge of the precipitation shield is expected to push through our northernmost counties by 13Z Sunday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR

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