Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281542 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS SLOWED WITH A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. UPSTREAM...SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WILL EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS CURRENT TREND OF THINKING IS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT ZFP TO RIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY STEADY SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND SENT THE GRIDS TOT HE NDFD SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. UPDATE CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN A BIT LATER TODAY. NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEM TO HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A SECOND WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR TENDS TO SUPPORT THE HRRR AS ECHOS ARE FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPDATE WILL ENTAIL ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ENERGY FROM PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN TN...HAVING PASSED THOUGH CVG AND BWG. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BEING PRODUCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY PRECIP EASTWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE MORNING...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. BUT LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES THUS FAR AND MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THESE CHANCES WILL DROP AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAM DID TRY TO BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE 06Z RUN BACKED OFF ON THIS ONCE AGAIN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS AND WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN WE START TO FOCUS ON ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT A CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING EAST AND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...HOWEVER AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EASTERN KY GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST HIGHEST WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM MIXING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS QUITE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE...INITIALLY VERY SLOW TO PICK UP ON THE WORSENING WEATHER HAS FINALLY COME IN LINE WITH ACTUAL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AND FROM ALL APPEARANCES WE WILL SEE RAIN LINGER ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH WAS VERY PESSIMISTIC... WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. WINDS ARE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME AT AROUND 5 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY

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