Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280623 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 223 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 Subsidence is building in behind the exiting rain/MCS. This will provide a much needed dry period through the remainder of the overnight period. A few showers could still skirt areas near the Tennessee border, but this probably would not occur until after 4 am. As far as Sunday, does not look like much of a trigger through the day as instability looks like it may be slow to recover with much of the better moisture trapped to our south. We may not see much until the front makes its move towards the area Sunday evening. With that said, many of the CAMS do not really have much for our area through Sunday night. Even the 00z NAM looks very unimpressive with all the ascent and instability to our south with the convection near the Gulf coast. Could still see a broken line of showers or storms push through sometime during the evening, but confidence is fairly low still. For the time being will continue to back off pops. Also removed thunder late Sunday night into Monday as instability is lacking behind the front. UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 The watch was allowed to expire on time, as the stronger convection has made its way further southeast into Tennessee. Moderate stratiform rainfall, with embedded thunder, will gradually diminish across the southwest half of the area over the next 1 to 2 hours. Some convection has fired up across north central Kentucky, but this will likely die out before making it much further east. Included areas of dense fog in the valleys, with the thicker cirrus shield likely thinning out with time. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 921 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 Storms are gradually weakening across the area, with mainly a heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat to continue across portions of the Cumberland Valley over the next few hours. Will likely be dropping the watch on time. The latest HRRR and radar mosaic trends suggest a quieter overnight, and given the lack of forcing and the already worked over atmosphere, this seems reasonable. Have trended down with the POPs into Sunday morning, before a possible re-fire occurs tomorrow afternoon, although forcing still may be on the weaker side. Will have to take a look at fog for the overnight as well, with only weak southerly flow remaining in place at the low levels and thicker debris clouds gradually thinning out with time. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 429 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 The latest surface map features a stalled frontal boundary aligned from near the Ohio River back towards Oklahoma. Aloft, a positively tilted trough, stemming from an upper level low spiraling across Manitoba, is positioned from the northern Plains down across the Four Corners region. A few short wave troughs are traversing the more zonal flow in place along and east of the Mississippi River. Convection has fired up along the frontal zone to our north, as well along some leftover outflow across central Kentucky. A short wave trough is also moving through the eastern half of TN/KY, helping to weaken the cap, that had held back convection through the morning hours. Deeper and more organized convection has also fired up back towards southern Missouri, where very prominent instability exists. The models have been very erratic with convective initiation and the evolution of it over the next 24 hours. As such, the forecast is lower confidence through Sunday. Through this evening...scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move off to the east and northeast. A few of these have already reached severe limits, along with locally heavy rainfall with some cells training in places. An overall diminishment is expected after 01 or 02z. Later tonight, the higher resolution short term model guidance suggests less of a widespread wind damage threat across eastern Kentucky, as most of the CAMs are taking organized convection well to our southwest. This seems reasonable based on the good Theta-E gradient set up across southeast MO and western KY/TN, where the better instability bubble exists. There may still be some outflow generated convection into our area on the eastern flank of this complex, so have broad-brushed a 50 POP across the area. Most of the CAMS suggest very little redevelopment into Sunday afternoon in the wake of the complex; however, if we do not see much affect from the outflow, then the atmosphere may recharge for the afternoon. The one issue will be forcing, as upper level heights look mainly neutral, and the surface front will still be located to our northwest. As such, have only included chance POPs for the afternoon, but instability will be ample once again, so anything that does go could approach severe limits. The front will approach from the northwest Sunday night, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The severe potential will likely be diminishing with the loss of instability, but heavy rain will still be a concern. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 Precipitation will be exiting during the day Monday as a shortwave moves east of the region along with a surface cold front, allowing drier air to usher in behind. A secondary cold front is projected to develop just west of our CWA during the day Tuesday, remaining nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A longwave trough axis will also begin move through the state during this time. As such, models are not in good agreement with the mesoscale features, specifically the location and timing of precip developing with this system. Went ahead and kept isolated POPs in for Tuesday afternoon as daytime heating should help kick off some convection ahead of this frontal feature. Pops will then increase across the SE into the day Wednesday as the front finally starts shifting eastward across the state. Did leave out thunder late Tuesday night as latest GFS20 forecast soundings were showing a hefty llvl inversion in place that will inhibit instability. Showers and thunderstorms that develop during the day Wednesday will taper off through the evening as the frontal boundary passes through and a drier airmass moves in once more. High pressure and dry weather will remain in place through Thursday. By Thursday night/Friday, a stationary boundary will likely set up just south of the state, interacting with a potential upper level shortwave that will move through the region during this time. Although models are overall not in very good agreement about the timing and placement of the mesoscale features, they do generally agree that this will bring the return of shower and thunderstorm chances to the state Thursday night into Friday, lingering through the end of the forecast period Saturday as the boundary to our south remains in place. Unfortunately the GFS and ECMWF are actually not in good agreement about this feature during this time, though both do produce the above mentioned precip, so stuck close to the blend for this time period. Overall there are only minor variations in the afternoon temps during the extended portion of the forecast, with high temps expected to range from the mid/upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 A tricky forecast overnight as some low stratus or fog may try to form after the recent rain. In fact, KJKL already has a low cig and KLOZ has one now. The other sites are still VFR. For now will go IFR at these sites and go VFR elsewhere, but may need to amend if the IFR conditions spread. Ceilings will go back to VFR on Sunday and should stay that way through Sunday night. A cold front will bring a threat of a few showers or storms Sunday evening, but confidence in coverage is too low to include in TAFs at this point.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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