Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250240 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1040 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1040 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Cloud cover continues to hold in place across much of eastern Kentucky. Have seen some breaks in the lower decks, but not enough when combined with what is still approaching from the east, to ramp up the fog from what is already advertised. UPDATE Issued at 807 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Plenty of deep layer cloud cover continues to reside across eastern Kentucky this evening, stemming from a low pressure system across the Carolinas. A weak surface ridge nosing into south central portions of Kentucky may make for a better period of clearing across the Lake Cumberland region tonight, thus promoting a better probability of fog development. Will maintain patchy fog mention for now and reassess cloud trends through this evening for any potential upgrade in coverage/amount.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Deep layer low pressure system resides across the Carolina coast line and perhaps a weak surface trough extending northwestward into KY. Given the low pressure location we are seeing easterly flow across the region and mostly cloudy skies for most. There have been some breaks here and there, but the majority of the region remains overcast. This will lead to a more complicated forecast tonight, as some of this stratus could end up building down. This as deep low slowly moves north and east and weak upper level ridge tries to nudge into the region. Overall based on the trends will lean a bit lower in the SW and better cloud coverage as you move NE. Given that did keep fog going in the Lake Cumberland region tonight, given the higher potential for breaks in the clouds. These clouds will also complicate the temperature forecast and therefore kept fairly uniform temps given the uncertainty. This slow moving vertically stacked system will continue to move up the east coast. This will slowly clear out of the region through the day Tuesday as the upper level heights rise. This will allow for clearing skies and warmer temperatures with high progressing into the mid to upper 70s. This will persist into Tuesday night and did not go with any temp splits at this point, Given the increasing gradient ahead of the next system. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 254 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 The period starts off warm and sunny on Wednesday with shortwave ridging in place aloft. Our pattern then turns unsettled again on Thursday as a resident trough establishes itself over the central CONUS placing our region under southwest flow aloft. Multiple shortwaves will travel through this southwest flow bringing periodic chances of showers and storms Thursday through Monday. Saturday may be the lone dry day as models show a warm front lifting to our north shifting any showers/storms to the north as well, at least temporarily. Overall, forecast models are in general agreement aloft but differ slightly with timing of individual shortwaves and surface features so accepted the standard model blend for forecast details in or order to smooth out these differences. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period. In fact, highs each day Wednesday through Sunday will likely reach the upper 70s to mid 80s putting April 2017 in the record books as one of the warmest Aprils on record across eastern Kentucky. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 MVFR ceilings at JKL/SYM should improve to low-end VFR criteria later this evening as relatively drier air very slowly pushes into eastern Kentucky. However, a slow moving low pressure system across the Carolinas will help low-mid level moisture to linger. The best chance for clearing skies will be at SME/LOZ later tonight, thus resulting in the best probability for fog development. Have maintained mention of IFR/MVFR visibilities at both sites for now, with this mixing out around 12Z Tuesday as winds remain light below 5 knots. Stratus build down could lead to some minor restrictions to visibility at SJS/JKL/SYM, but not currently expecting this to bring a degrade to prevailing VFR conditions. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.