Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221137 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 637 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 637 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 The forecast has looked good so far this morning with no major changes needed. Did ingest the latest observations into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. Aside from that the forecast is good as is.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 The latest model data has trended not quite as wet, with the southern stream system taking a track that takes it slightly further east of our area than before, and with less overall QPF across our area than before. The ECWMF model has actually trended a bit more progressive than the yesterdays 12Z run, so the 4am forecast package will feature the trends observed in the model data regarding storm track and QPF amounts. We will be keeping our ESF in affect to highlight any potential hydro issues that may occur across eastern Kentucky. It appears that the heaviest rain will set in early this evening and will last through the night. The precipitation should begin to slowly taper off during the day on Monday, as the parent storm system makes at northeastward turn and begins to move out of the area. A few thunderstorms will be possible from late this morning through early this evening as a weak trough out ahead of the parent low moves across the area today, providing additional lift which will interact with the moist air mass that is currently in place. Temperatures will continue to run well above normal today and tomorrow, but especially today, when highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. Conditions will be much cooler on Monday, but max temp on that day will also be above normal, with highs forecast to reach the lower 50s. Winds should increase in intensity tonight and tomorrow, as low pressure moves by to our east and the pressure gradient associated with it tightens up. Winds should shift from the southeast or east to the west and then northwest late tonight into Monday morning. Sustained wind speeds of around 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph, are expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 358 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 The models agree on an amplified pattern to hold on across the CONUS through next weekend. A deep upper level low will be pulling out from the mid-Atlantic states into New England through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, troughing will be moving from the Rockies into the central Plains states. These two systems will eventually merge up in southeast Canada, resulting in broader troughing evolving east of the Rockies by the end of the period, and consequently bringing an end to the above normal temperatures we have been enjoying. Showers will be on a gradual demise from west to east, as the upper level low pulls away, and short wave ridging works in from the west. A few flakes still look possible for the highest elevations across our southeast into Tuesday morning, but with no impact. Clouds will temporarily clear out Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with a few valleys in the east likely taking advantage. One last day of 60 degree temperatures will be on tap for Wednesday, as strong south to southwest winds will be in place as deep surface low pressure tracks to our northwest and north. A few showers will be possible as the attendant cold front moves through, although QPF continues to look very light. A series of short wave troughs will then take aim at the region through the rest of the period, with much colder air moving into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Have maintained slight to chance POPs at times; however, moisture will be limited, so any snow impacts look pretty minimal at this time. Will await further model runs, before playing up any one particular piece of energy to move through the region. Highs will retreat to the 30s by Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 VFR conditions expected to prevail at JKL...SYM...and SJS until between 15 and 16Z, when rain showers are expected to first begin affecting those airports. LOZ and SME will continue to fluctuate between IFR and VFR through 13Z or so due to fog. Between 13 and 15Z the TAF sites should see VFR. After 14Z, rain showers are expected to begin affecting SME, LOZ, and JKL, leading to MVFR. SYM and SJS should begin experiencing MVFR due to rain showers by around 18Z. The MVFR conditions will then set in at all the airports through early Monday morning. There may even be times of IFR to LIFR conditions due to heavy rain toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will shift from east or southeast late this evening to west or northwest, with a corresponding increase in strength to around 10 mph. These winds are expected to continue through the day on Monday, with gusts of up to 20 mph possible at times.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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