Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 091527 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND A QUICK COATING OF SNOW. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE LIFT AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH OBS AND TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LOW CIGS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE HAZARDS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...AR

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