Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250401 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1201 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REFLECT EARLY THAN EXPECTED ONSET OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON PAR WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO ASSESS IF ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED LATER IN THE SHIFT...BUT FOR NOW...THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADVECTION OF VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LAG BEHIND...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD COOL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS WOULD YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700MB AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SEVERE WX THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO ARRIVE. EVEN SO...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON MONDAY AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES AWAY AND GETS SCOURED OUT. HAVE CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE IT HERE AT MIDWEEK...AND PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE LARGE TROUGH...AND PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS GENERATE PRECIP...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY...HAVE OPTED TO USE NOTHING HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS...AND ONLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR GENERAL FOG...PARTICULARLY IN OUR VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR FOG AND SJS AND JKL...WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LOZ AND SME. IF SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OFF AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG FORMATION SHOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE WILL THE FOG BE AND HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THE DENSE FOG BE THAT DOES FORM. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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