Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231947 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 347 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 347 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 An upper low across the mid-Atlantic continues to churn as shortwave and amplified upper ridging builds across the Great Lakes through the Mississippi Valley. This last gasp of cyclonic flow has led to an afternoon cumulus field across most of eastern Kentucky, but a strengthening subsidence inversion will keep dry conditions in the offing across the Commonwealth. Will see this dissipate into this evening as deep layer ridging makes greater headway east. This will set up an appreciable ridge/valley split tonight along with patchy valley fog once again, with lows bottoming out in the mid 40s in valleys and low to mid 50s on ridgetops. Sunny skies will prevail for Tuesday as high pressure and deep layer subsidence remain in firm control. Building heights/thicknesses and full insolation will spell highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. Return flow will begin to take shape Tuesday evening and night as ridging slips off to the east. Warm air and moisture advection will be ongoing through the night, resulting in lows Wednesday morning in the mid 50s to near 60. Valleys in far eastern Kentucky may dip closer to the low 50s as the backside of surface ridging will hold longer influence. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 As the upper level low scoots off to our east, ridging will build into the region at the start of the long term. Flow will then turn to the southwest, ushering in higher moisture and warmer temperatures. Ridging is expected to stay parked over the region through the work week, shift to the east just a bit for the weekend as a shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes, then get reinforced back into the Tennessee Valley to end the month of May. There will be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms every afternoon, but any source of low level forcing in terms of a front will likely hang up to our northwest. There is the potential for more widespread shower activity over the weekend if the upper level low feature nudges closer to East Kentucky (closer to the GFS20 solution). However, decided to keep it generalized with slight to chance pops in the afternoons each day to account for model differences in timing and coverage of precipitation. Temperatures will average well above normal each day with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Vfr conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period as this afternoon`s cumulus field remains scattered and above 3000 feet. Patchy valley fog is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning, but this should remain confined to deeper valleys outside of Taf sites. Light winds at or below 6 knots will prevail out of the northeast today before veering south or southeasterly tonight and southwesterly tomorrow. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.