Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011727 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WHICH WAS A LITTLE BIT LATER IN THE DAY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATER THAN ANTICIPATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. SINCE THINGS GOT GOING A BIT LATER...ALSO DECIDED TO SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG NOT THAT ALL THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF AROUND THE AREA. LEFT IN MENTION OF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS THE LATEST DATA FROM THE SREF AND HRRR BOTH STILL SUPPORTING IT. WILL MONITOR THAT PART OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD. FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AT TAF ISSUANCE...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL BE ON TAP BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THE RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT JKL AND SJS. LOZ AND SME COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS IF THE FOG BECOME DENSE AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH AFTER 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

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