Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR 16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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