Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010600 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED AS EVEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG ONES ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLUEGRASS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR STRAY STORMS ARE FOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...PER RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE... WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAWN. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS AS WELL AS SENT OUT FRESHENED ZONES AND A CALMER HWO. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DESCENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH STORMS JUST TRAILING AND SOME DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST. THE WORST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN JUST TOUCHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH EVERY SCAN OF THE RADAR PROVIDING CRITICAL DATA FOR THE EVOLVING CELLS. TO THE SOUTH...EARLIER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE SEEMED TO MAKE FOR QUIETER WEATHER SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AS THE OUTFLOW IS NOW THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH...DUE TO EXPIRE IN AN HOUR...FROM THE SOUTH WHILE KEEPING IT IN THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STORMS AND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALSO...INCORPORATED THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...DID TWEAK THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...COLD POOLS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESH SETS OF ZONES AND HWO. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE LARGELY TIED TO SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS EVEN HAS BEEN HINDERED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS GOTTEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TIED TO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE HI RES MODELS...THE NMM MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION MOST ADMIRABLY WITH THE DEAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEING OVER JACKSON AND NORTH DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND REST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING OVER THE SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO COLD POOL AND ACCELERATE. BASED UPON THE MODEL AND LIVE TRENDS...THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. SINCE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ON INSTABILITY...WILL RAMP DOWN POPS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS RECEIVE RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A MORE PRONOUNCED COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY FOR THIS EVENT SEEMS IN QUESTION BUT WILL AT THE VERY LEAST BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST TWO PERIODS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PRETTY DECENT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DAMP AND PERHAPS WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH THUNDER COMPARED WITH RECENT STANDARDS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS VERY WET FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEAT INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN LEFT OVER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN. SEVERAL TAF SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING FOG...AND IF THEY CONTINUE TO DROP IN VISIBILITY SOME MAY ACTUALLY GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS FOR A PERIOD BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...SOME TAF SITES MAY CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CATEGORIES DEPENDING ON THE VARYING DEGREE OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. AS THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO GEAR TAFS TOWARD THIS IDEA...BUT ACTUAL VIS AND CIGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STORMS DEVELOP AND PASS NEARBY...OR EVEN OVER THE TAF SITE. A HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE EXACT IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/HIGH END IFR VIS AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW

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