Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310611 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER... DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT... POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER... SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS... ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JMW

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