Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
911 FXUS63 KJKL 241115 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 715 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 700 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Updated the forecast in the near term to fine tune the QPF and PoPs. Also tweaked the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 405 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 07z sfc analysis shows a deep and stacked area of low pressure passing off to the southeast. Up until this point, this low has been pumping in wave after wave of showers into eastern Kentucky. Now just a few light ones remain and primarily just targeting the far east near the Virginia and West Virginia border. With the end of the significant rain have decided to drop the Flood Watch, though local areas of high water remain - particularly near the Cumberland and Kentucky Rivers where flood warnings or advisories are currently in effect. Skies are mostly cloudy throughout the area early this morning while winds continue from the northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures through the area are rather uniform, generally from 50 to 55 degrees while dewpoints vary from the mid 40s northwest to the low 50s for much of the rest of the area. The models are once again in excellent agreement aloft through the short term. They all depict a closed and semi-cutoff low dropping through the Deep South and then east to the Atlantic Coast today. As this low moves further away from Kentucky heights will rebound and attention will shift to the flow pattern to the northwest. This mid level pattern will be in the process of developing a large trough over the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the closed low will be continuing its trek up the east coast - located over Cape Hatteras at this time. Given the good model agreement will favor a blended/consensus solution along with a lean toward the high res HRRR early on. Sensible weather will feature a cloudy and still rather cool day across eastern Kentucky as most places dry out. A few lingering showers will continue to affect the area - particularly east but just small amounts of QPF are expected. Plenty of low level moisture will continue to keep skies rather cloudy tonight and into Tuesday which will limit the temperature drop off tonight but should not impact the rebound much on Tuesday as highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a return of partial sunshine. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance to start off the grids through the short term. Did not have to make much adjustment to temperatures but did nudge dewpoints down a few degrees this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Also made some minor tweaks to the PoPs and QPF grids to limit their range and coverage today. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Very mild air will build into the region for the middle of the week as shortwave ridging pushes east across the region. A shortwave trough will then drive a cold front across the area on Thursday. Models are tending towards a slightly more active front on Thursday, so confidence is increasing for at least some scattered showers and storms with the front passage. In fact, 0-6km shear magnitude is 40 knots. This coupled with some surface instability will lead to some potentially damaging wind gusts. Instability and mid level lapse rates not impressive enough to support updrafts capable of hail, so it looks like any threat from storms would be limited to damaging wind gusts. Dry weather would return by late Thursday evening. However, a warm front will lift north across the area Friday and Friday night and bring more chances of showers and storms. Some model differences emerge by Friday, but depending on how things work out, more strong to severe storms would be possible. The warm front exits to the north by early Saturday morning with dry weather returning for the weekend. In the wake of the front, summer-like weather will surge north across the area with highs well into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. As upper levels amplify with a large ridge developing over the eastern US, the warm weather may continue into the following week. However, at some point, a cold front will work into the Ohio river valley and interact with the warm and moist air to provide another unsettled period sometime early next week. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Cigs will bounce between low end MVFR and IFR through the day, for most locations - along with a few brief pockets of VFR moving through. Look for shower activity to be mainly light and very isolated today having little impact on the TAF sites. For tonight, cigs could be a bit trickier with most guidance keeping them MVFR or higher, but also a potential for some light fog to develop rather than stratus. Winds will be generally out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 kts through Tuesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.