Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010640 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 WITH PRECIP ONGOING...RAISED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO BLENDED OBS INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING PRECIP WAS WELL DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS TO TWEAK WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...EVEN HI RES MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE ONGOING PRECIP AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OVERALL...SO WENT WITH A MIX OF OFFICIAL...HRRR...AND HAND TWEEKS TO COME UP WITH EXPECTED SCENARIO. WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE A DIMINISHMENT OF RAIN RATES ACROSS EASTERN KY...SO PROBABLY NOT SEEING MUCH IN CLOUD LIGHTNING AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN RATES COULD INCREASE...AND A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS TO OUR SW MAY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA...SO KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A PRECAUTION. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP UPDATE...ALSO MADE SURE THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH CHANGES SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FURTHER ZFP UPDATES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL INTO EASTERN KY FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE STATE. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD DEVELOPED TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND ARE NOW JUST HEAVY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WOULDN/T RULE OUT SOME STRAY THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT...TRIED TO BASE NEAR TERM UPDATED GRIDS ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THEN BLENDED BACK INTO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY AND MOVING THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING IN CASE ANY FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE. THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE CAME WITH TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WE HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. THIS RESULTED IN NOT ONLY SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPS...BUT ALSO FOR THE DIURNAL CURVE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS IT STANDS...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH OF A DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES OF VARIATION FROM THE CURRENT ONGOING TEMPS. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ALSO SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 UNFORTUNATELY MODELS...EVEN HI RES...DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KY...TN...AND POINTS SURROUNDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AN UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER WAS DEEMED NECESSARY. AND MAY BE AGAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO OUR SOUTH. TRIED TO USE THE BEST HI RES MODEL BLEND AS A STARTING POINT AND THEN HAND TWEAKED GRIDS TO GET DESIRED POP TREND. ALSO...CHANGED PROBABILITY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...AND NEW FORECAST ZONES WERE SENT OUT AS WELL TO ADDRESS THE CHANGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS AREA LIFTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST...A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE SOME PONDING ON ROADS ARE POSSIBLE...THE AREA IS FULLY GREENED UP AND WITH PWATS ONLY REACHING JUST BELOW THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. CONCERNING THE STRONG STORM THREAT...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. IN FACT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 60S. FOR SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY...ANOTHER INSTANCE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE CAP OVER THE AREA WILL BE A BIT STOUT. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...IF INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AND CAN OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AREA...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE THREAT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER THE EAST WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND BASICALLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A MUCH LARGER AND MORE WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING US PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR ISSUES. WE WILL JUST BE IN STORE FOR A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH PULLS COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE RAINIEST PERIODS...TO AROUND 70 ON THE LESS RAINY LESS CLOUDY DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WERE BRINGING LOCALIZED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WERE STILL VFR. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PRECIP TAPERS OFF AND VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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