Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211756 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1256 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1255 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 Mid/high level clouds have been rather thick today, and have slowed the temperature rise. This is especially the case in valleys which chilled very effectively before dawn, before the clouds arrived. Thick that most valleys will eventually catch up, but the hourly trends needed to be adjusted to account for it. Some very light rain has been reported by the KLOZ ASOS, and have left 20% pops in the forecast in the southeast part of the area this afternoon. Radar is also showing returns near the northwest edge of the forecast area. Have added a 20% pop there for this afternoon, but it`s uncertain if precip can make it through the drier air beneath where it`s originating. UPDATE Issued at 940 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 The update only blends mid morning obs into the forecast grids, with no substantive changes. UPDATE Issued at 643 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 Forecast still on track early this morning. Middle and high level cloud cover will continue to stream over the area today as a weather system approaches from the southwest. Ingested the latest obs into the hourly grids to establish new trends. No major update to the forecast is required at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 The models are suggesting that most of eastern Kentucky should experience dry weather today, due to progressively southeasterly flow and the downslope warming and drying that will occur across the area as a result. It appears that the best moisture associated with an approaching weather system will remain just off to the south of our area today. This, combined with the downslope warming and therefore drying mentioned above, should be enough to keep precipitation at bay for all but our southernmost and easternmost counties today. After a brief lull, widespread rainfall is expected to move in from the south and southwest this evening through the end of the day on Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of the southern Mississippi valley and across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and tomorrow. As this system moves east, it is forecast to strengthen, and therefore slow down, as it moves across our area. The slow movement of this system, combined with a steady flow of warm moist air off the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to widespread rain showers across eastern Kentucky to finish out the weekend. We may even see a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow due to the strength of the passing low and the presence of weak elevated instability. Rain could be locally heavy at times. Temperatures will remain well above normal this weekend, with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s today, and the lower 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows should be in the lower 50s. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will be on tap as well. Winds should generally be out of the south or southeast at around 5 mph during the period .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 413 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 An amplified pattern looks to remain in place across the CONUS through the extended portion of the forecast. Initially, it will be more blocky, as two deep upper level lows start out affecting the eastern and west third of the U.S. Eventually, by the end of the work week, these two systems will merge across southeast Canada, allowing for broader troughing east of the Rockies, and a return of more winter-like air. The aforementioned upper level low in the east will gradually swing from the southern Appalachians to New England by Tuesday. Anomalously low surface pressure will follow suit, bringing widespread showers across eastern Kentucky Sunday night into Monday, before gradually diminishing by late Monday night into Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and the 00z runs have ramped up the QPF...with anywhere from 1 to nearly 3 inches of rainfall. Given the overall wet conditions in the past few weeks across our region, most of the rainfall will runoff, with minor flooding of creeks, streams, and eventually some larger rivers a possibility. As such, have issued a Hydrologic Outlook highlighting this potential. Colder air will be pulled in by Tuesday morning, possibly allowing for a little snow for the highest elevations in far southeast Kentucky; however, given the warm ground temperatures and low snow ratios, impacts will be minimal. Another surface low pressure system will then track from the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes region by Thursday morning, bringing another chance of precipitation to eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Thursday. Detail differences between the ECMWF and GFS are more pronounced by this time, so stuck fairly close to a blend of the solutions. Wednesday highs in the 60s will be a thing of the past by Friday, as highs return back to the 30s. Some snow chances will return towards the end of the week; however, moisture will be in question, so did not go as bold as some of the blended guidance was producing, and allowed for mainly slight chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail until late tonight, with mainly mid/high level ceilings. A bit of light rain will affect far southeast KY this afternoon, and possibly near/north of I-64, but it should not offer up much in the way of restrictions. The next round of more significant weather will not arrive until late tonight. Showers and lower ceilings are expected to spread into the JKL forecast area from the southwest before dawn on Sunday. The worst conditions should be in the far west and southwest, with at least MVFR if not IFR occurring on Sunday morning. Further east, drying downslope flow will work to erode the lowest clouds, and the eastern tip of the state should remain VFR. However, there still could be some showers even in the far east before the end of the period. A few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out in the southern part of the area by mid day on Sunday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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