Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020350 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE A WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE EFFECTS CLEAR OUT IN PLACES LIKE SOMERSET. THE PATTERN THAT ALLOWED FOR SUCH STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH WFO LMK...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE WX ONES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE FFA AND ZFP/HWO UPDATES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER STORMS AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH TRAINING AND HIGH PWATS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO DAMPEN THE START OF THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MODE OF CONVECTION IN THIS SITUATION IT IS HARD TO BITE TOO HARD ON ONE SOLUTION SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THIS SCENARIO A BIT IN THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO HIGHLIGHTING THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE...OVER TO STANTON. ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS KEEPING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WEAK COMPARED WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIE OFF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO SEE WHAT CONVECTION FIRES OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS. MODELS REMAIN VARIABLE ON TRACK OF MCS TONIGHT. GOING TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHT WILL EVOLVE. ANY MCS WOULD LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT. WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER VERY UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN GOING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. PW`S ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THUS...IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING STORMS...THEN A BETTER FLOODING THREAT MAY BE REALIZED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US. MODELS CONTINUE TO VERY IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER AGREE WITH A OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE FRONT AND OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND TROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 SME AND LOZ WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE EVENING STORMS...WHILE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LIKELY COME BACK DOWN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT FALLING BACK TO AT OR NEAR IFR FOR MOST PLACES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE STRATUS COULD BUILD DOWN ONTO THE RIDGES...CREATING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FOR OUR MOUNTAIN TOP AIRPORTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION FROM AN MCS THAT MAY ORGANIZE UPSTREAM. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FEATURE TRACKS...WE COULD GET MORE RAIN/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO JUMP TO HARD ON THIS IDEA SO FOR NOW HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>088-114>118. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF

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