Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280756 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A "dirty" subtropical upper ridge persists over the region, but is weakening. Forecast soundings suggest that daytime heating will lead to development of scattered showers and thunderstorms today. With a lack of any significant upper level support, they are expected to again die out during the evening. The upper ridge will weaken further on Monday, and surface high pressure is expected to pass east southeast over the Great Lakes under west northwest flow aloft. Models indicate advection of somewhat drier low level air into our area in the flow around the surface high on Monday. This will probably keep convective precip more limited, and only slight chance pops are being used. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Our weather pattern looks quiet through the upcoming work week. The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures above normal and humidity elevated. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible over our higher terrain along the VA border in the warm and muggy airmass Tuesday afternoon. The ridge breaks down by mid week and we transition to northwest flow aloft. A weak and moisture starved cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, possibly sparking a few thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure will then build in behind this front for Thursday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. The forecast for Friday into the Labor Day weekend is low confidence. Longer range forecast models want to develop a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico and bring it northeast into the Southeast U.S. as a shortwave dives in from the northwest. The GFS and GEM bring some moisture into our southeast counties while the ECMWF keeps everything on the other side of the Appalachian Mountains. The model blend did offer some PoPs as early as Friday in our southeast but trimmed this back some with the drier airmass over our region and the low confidence outcome with the potential tropical system.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Convection finally died out late in the evening, and a quiet finish to the night should now be in store. Will look for fog to develop in the typical valley locations. Expect most TAF sites to have relatively minimal impacts from it. KSJS stands the greatest chance of having a period of IFR conditions for a couple hours around sunrise. Any fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning, leaving mainly VFR to finish the period. The exception will be localized IFR in scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be less than 10kts. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...HAL

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