Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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501 FXUS63 KJKL 270547 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Lowered min temps for this morning slightly in most areas, with obs showing a bit more of a drop than was previously forecast.| UPDATE Issued at 1051 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies across the area as all of the convection has dissipated. Have updated to input the latest observations. The rest of the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 933 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 The line of showers has dissipated and the area is relatively clear. Have updated to remove pops from the early tonight period. The forecast issue through tonight will be cloud cover as any breaks will allow fog to develop. Have put fog in the forecast and also in the HWO for tonight. The other forecast problem tonight will be the lifting of a warm front into the area. While weak and vague due to convection earlier, this may provide enough forcing for a few showers over the north to develop towards dawn. UPDATE Issued at 618 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Current conditions feature a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms moving into eastern Kentucky. These storms will continue with a weakening trend through the evening as they continue to move into a more unfavorable environment. In fact, hi resolution models indicate a complete dissipation by 06z. Have adjusted the forecast to account for this and updated the current obs as the rain cooled air has dropped temps across the area this evening. Later tonight, a warm front looks to lift north through the area as some weak forcing may be enough for a few showers to develop over the north towards dawn. Have put in a slight chance of showers for this possibility.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Strong troughing across the southwest conus and ridging for the southeast conus has led to SW to NE flow aloft across the mississippi and Ohio River Valley. Several short waves continue to eject ne along this flow and into the Ohio River Valley, including the one that spawned a strong line of showers and thunderstorms this morning over western KY and Illinois. This line has sustained itself throughout the day and is now traversing central KY. Decent instability present, along with good mid level drying, have led to several of these storms going severe. Most of the hi res models have had a fairly good handle on this system through the afternoon, with preference for the HRRR which has been initializing well since this morning. They also all have this line weakening as it moves into our western CWA, then quickly dissipating as it moves east late this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show good CAPE, LI`s -6 to -8, and steep lapse rates. However our shear is lacking, and strong storms will likely not be able to sustain themselves. As such, agree with models to a certain degree. We could still see some isolated embedded cells that could pop up to severe limits, or produce small hail at the least. But do agree that there will be a diminishing trend as we head into the evening. By overnight, this line of showers and thunderstorms will move eastward out of the region. High pressure will take hold, generally to our southeast, leaving southerly flow across the region. The continued moisture influx, in addition to the lingering moisture and a night time inversion taking hold, could lead to fog development across the CWA, especially in the valley locations. High pressure will remain in control tomorrow. However southerly flow will continue, allowing temps to easily climb into the mid and even upper 80s by the afternoon. With that southerly flow will also come moisture, so diurnal CU development will be likely. Afternoon instability will also be in place, so scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop for the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 We begin the period more influenced by the upper level ridge extending west out of the Mid Atlantic Coast, while upper level closed low resides in the Central Plains states. Overall better PVA will remain east of the region, but enough influence to include some higher chance pops mainly toward the northern and western portion of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday. Now moving into the first part of the work week more uncertainty exists with regard to waves and any residual down stream storm complexes that hold together. Also another complication exists in the tropics with potential for a developing tropical system near the Carolina Coast line. Right now the GFS has been the most volatile with little continuity run to run, while the ECMWF seems to be more consistent. The influence from this overall should reside latter portion of the long term period, therefore for now will stick with model blend approach for now. This especially as shear will be nil through the long period leading to little if any organization of storms. Toward the very end of the period ridging breaks down more allowing for more height falls. This will lead to higher chance pops by Thursday given this looks to be the overall best synoptic feature we have seen. Given the ridging a more summer time feel will remain in place through the long term period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Localized fog was affecting a few places late tonight, but most of the area (including reporting TAF sites) had vfr conditions at TAF issuance. Mid and high level clouds were abundant, but were on an overall decline, and that trend should continue through the morning. This will allow continued cooling of our already moist air, which will allow more fog to develop. Non ridgetop sites are forecast to fall to MVFR or IFR, but it is not a high confidence forecast. Conditions will improve after sunrise, with all locations expected to return to VFR during the morning. After heating and destabilization on Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon and last into the evening.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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