Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221159 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 759 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Freshened up the sky cover, temperatures, and dew points, according to the latest trends in observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 Surface high pressure is currently centered across Arkansas, with ridging nosed north into the Great Lakes. An area of low pressure is gradually pulling off of the New England coast. Aloft, troughing is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard, with broad ridging occurring across the Plains. Heights will gradually recover across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the short term, with the surface high pressure sliding southeast, reaching the gulf coast states by Sunday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will emerge from the Plains and head east, dragging a cold front across the Ohio Valley by late Sunday. Partly cloudy and cool conditions will be on tap today across eastern Kentucky, as highs struggle into the mid to upper 50s. Skies will clear out tonight, with valleys down into the upper 30s. Southwest winds will engage on Sunday, with some gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible during the afternoon. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 The forecast has a reasonable amount of confidence through the upcoming week as models continue to align fairly well. It looks like a dry cold front will sweep south Sunday night and Monday, doing nothing more than keeping temperatures a tad cooler. Still looks like highs should top out in the 60s both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday could be interesting as model soundings show quite a bit of dry air just off the surface and we should be able to mix deep into the dry air with relative humidities possibly falling to 25 percent or lower. This could also help send our afternoon temperatures higher, with a large diurnal swing anticipated. Despite the chilly start with lows in the 30s Tuesday morning, should still be able to pull off some mid 60s for highs. Opted to keep frost out of the forecast given we really never tap into the lower dewpoints until Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints generally above freezing typically support more fog. Frost might be more possible in a few sheltered eastern valleys Wednesday morning, but again, such low coverage not worth mentioning in the forecast. Models are all trending sharper with a mid level trough pushing across the area from late Wednesday through Thursday. Forecast pops have been increased to high end chance and likely for Thursday with this forecast package. Both the ECMWF and GFS support rainfall totals exceeding a half an inch on Thursday. I would imagine rain chances will continue to increase with modest model agreement. The 00z GFS is so much stronger with the feature on Thursday, it actually generates a cut off low. This solution has been very much an outlier from previous model runs, and will maintain a faster moving system with rain chances exiting Thursday night. Plan to leave the forecast dry into the following weekend per the ECMWF solution with strong ridging building across the region. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered to broken stratocu in the 3-6k feet agl range will gradually thin from west to east this afternoon. Northwest winds will continue at 5 to 10 kts through early this evening, before diminishing thereafter.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.