Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031917 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 BASED ON WIND READINGS ACROSS THE REGION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RESIDE FROM BETWEEN MOREHEAD AND FLEMINGSBURG...BACK TO THE EAST TO FRANKFORT AND LOUISVILLE. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALLOWED FOR 2500J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME 30-35 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO LIGHT UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. UNFORTUNATELY...ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN ALIGNED EAST TO WEST AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...FRONT FINALLY SLIPS SOUTH TAKING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY MAY STILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE MORE HIT OR MISS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TIMES OF PEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE QUIETER WEATHER AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN PLACES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 SKIES WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE BACK UP. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF/KAS AVIATION...KAS

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