Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220537 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY COMING UP TO FREEZING OR ABOVE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET WHICH HAS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S EARLIER TONIGHT IS NOW AT 31 DEGREES AND CLIMBING FAST. WILL PLAN ON GOING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL A FEW AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. DOWNSLOPING CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CIG HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4KFT AND HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED UPWARDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY STEEPENING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...GOING TO PULL OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS TOO MUCH IS GOING AGAINST ANY RAIN SHOWERS. WILL STICK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HOLES DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FLOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ALREADY THIS EVENING AND WARMER TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO BE DISPLAYED AT MAINLY RIDGE LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEYS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WINDS THIS EVENING AND AS SUCH HAVE BEEN WARMER AS WELL. THE DEEP VALLEYS IN THE WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY REACH THEIR LOW TEMP FOR THE NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL START TO WARM TOWARDS DAWN. ADJUSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SPRINKLES AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID ISSUE A NEW ZFP MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING... CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN KEEPS CLOUD HEIGHTS HIGHER. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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