Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211130 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 730 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 730 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017 Have freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points through this morning to account for the fog dissipation. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017 Surface high pressure rules across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Aloft, an upper level ridge is expanding across the Mississippi valley, with some troughiness lingering across the Eastern Seaboard. The models are in good agreement with the ridge gradually strengthening across the Ohio Valley through the short term, bringing above normal temperatures and drier weather. For today, eastern Kentucky will start out foggy once again in the valleys. Some short wave energy passing south on the leeward side of the ridge axis will allow for a threat of mainly isolated convection across our area today. Convection will die off quickly into this evening, with dry weather to follow as the ridge builds in stronger through Friday. High temperatures will average in the mid 80s each day, with Friday a degree or so warmer than today. Lows tonight will average in the low to mid 60s, with areas of dense valley fog setting up. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017 The first full week of fall looks to stay fairly mild as strong ridging dominates over the eastern US from Friday night through next Wednesday. Highs will continue to run in the low to mid 80s through this period with overnight lows generally around 60. Areas of locally dense valley fog will continue to be seen each morning through Wednesday. Looking beyond Wednesday, models are in fairly decent agreement on bringing a cold front across Kentucky next Thursday and then bringing a push of much cooler weather for the following weekend. Thus, this may be the last full week of real warmth before the pattern shifts to a cooler one. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017 LIFR or worse fog will lift and dissipate through 14z, with most of the affected TAF sites clearing by around 13z. Scattered cumulus ranging from 3 to 5k feet agl will develop during the day and a stray shower or storm may be seen during the afternoon. These should be isolated enough to keep out a mention in the TAFs. Skies will clear out once again tonight, with LIFR or worse fog forming mainly in the valleys. Winds will be light and variable through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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