Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190024 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 824 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- A deep trough passing aloft brings a threat of snow flurries early this evening. - A hard freeze later tonight could kill any cold-sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early season warmth. - Gusty southwest winds transport warmer air into the region on Tuesday, but dewpoints are slower to rise leading to low afternoon relative humidity and Fire Weather concerns. - A passing dry cold front brings another day of Fire Weather concerns on Wednesday. - Temperatures rebound back to near normal for Wed into next weekend, with lower confidence in the next potential chance of precipitation moving in towards the end of the work week.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Issued at 824 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024 Mostly cloudy skies, isolated flurries, and a few snow showers, are ongoing across the area early this evening. Looking upstream, satellite reveals some thinning and this should continue as a stout short wave trough axis exits off to our southeast. For now, have delayed the cloud and flurry diminishment in the forecast for the next few hours, given the current conditions. Forecast lows look on target, but have adjusted the hourly temperatures to better match up with the trend in the current conditions. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 437 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024 The forecast is generally mostly clear and dry...and that poses a problem. At the moment, a strong upper level system is moving across the Ohio Valley, resulting in mid-level cloud cover. The air below this cloud deck is very dry. However, apparently not dry enough that a few flurries and sprinkles aren`t making their way down to the surface across the northern CWA. While we are just above freezing at the surface, the air is much colder aloft, so most of the precip that has made it to the ground has been frozen (flurries). Meanwhile, winds are predominately out of the NW and with good mixing, they have been a bit breezy. Gusts between 15 and 20 kts have been on tap through much of the afternoon at the TAF sites. The combination of this very dry llvl air and these breezy conditions has elevated the fire danger across the region. This has been aided by the lack of rain (nothing in the last 48+ hours according to the KY Mesonet) and dry fuels. While winds are expected to dissipate a bit overnight, they won`t likely become calm and variable, at least not for long. There is enough mixing with this system that we could see predominate W to SW winds throughout the overnight, generally between 5 and 10 kts. Even still, the lighter winds combined with increasing RH will lesson the fire threat during the overnight. However, this doesn`t mean that the overnight is without it`s own hazards. Due to the strong CAA and clear skies that will accompany these lesser winds, all of the CWA is forecast to drop into the 20s, with lowest temperatures in the deeper valleys (generally low to mid 20s). Given abnormally warm conditions we`ve been having over the last week, quite a few plants have already started their spring blooms. This hard freeze could damage these susceptible plants. Fire weather concerns then ramps back up for Tomorrow/Tuesday. Strong NW flow will remain in play aloft, continuing to advect in very dry air. Temperatures will be aided by the continued SW flow at the surface and abundant sunshine, warming to the low 50s by the afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure will still be in place across the Commonwealth and points southward. Despite winds becoming more SWrly at the low levels, the strong NW flow in the mid and upper levels will overcome any moisture advection, keeping RH very low. Nudged the dew points towards the 10th percentile of the NBM, keeping RH in the upper teens to lower 20 percent range. In addition, strong mixing will remain in place, ramping up throughout the day. With such strong winds aloft, it won`t be unlikely that we can tap into some higher gusts, generally 20 to 30 kts. The Bluegrass region of the CWA may have the highest winds, with gusts in excess of 30 kts possible during the afternoon. Sustained winds will range from 10 to 20kts, while the Bluegrass will be between 15 and 25 kts. Then we take into account the fuels, which are also quite dry across the state. The USFS at the Daniel Boone National Forest noted that while the 1-inch fuels are not overly dry, the leaves and the grass are CRISP. All this to say, that if any fire is ignited during the day tomorrow, it could very quickly get out of hand and spread. After collaborating with the neighboring offices, there is still some concern of only meeting borderline criteria for some of the Red Flag Warning thresholds in many areas. Therefore it was decided to give a heads up to our fire weather partners, and keep with Fire Danger SPS and wording in the HWO, which our partners seemed okay with. Would not be surprised, however, if things continue to trend drier and windier, that some locations may end up upgrading to a Red Flag during the day tomorrow. Either way, Red Flag or not, fire weather and danger will be the top concern during the day. Again, winds are expected to slowly dissipate during the overnight Tuesday night, but should still remain somewhat mixed. RH will also increase as temperatures fall. However, lows on Tuesday night should not be quite a cold as the previous night as the NW flow continues to relax a bit, and we were warmer during the day Tuesday compared to today. Lows will bottom out in the mid and upper 30s in most locations. This may still pose a frost risk for some locations, especially in the deeper valleys, but not a hard freeze like tonight. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 355 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024 The large scale upper scale pattern across the CONUS to begin the extended will feature ridging aloft along the west coast with a developing small scale wave of low pressure aloft to the east of the ridge. The northeastern quarter of the country looks to start off under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure aloft, especially the Great Lakes and New England. An elongated and flat ridge of high pressure might also be in place along the Gulf Coast to start things off. The southwestern CONUS trough will be our initial weather maker in the extended, and should be moving through our neck of the woods Thursday night through Saturday. Our highest rain chances during that time should be from late Friday morning through late Friday night, as the trough moves by to our south and merges with a fast moving northern stream system that will be moving through the Great Lakes and into New England. The GFS Ensembles did a good job depicting the southern stream trough, while the GFS and ECMWF operational runs contained more details on the northern stream system and its evolution. High pressure will bring dry weather to the area both Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday being the warmer of the two days as strong sunshine and subsidence aloft will be in place. Thursday should be a bit cooler, as winds shift to the north and then northeast, as high pressure moves off to our east ahead of the next incoming trough. Clouds will be on the increase Thursday into Thursday evening, as low pressure moves our way, and we should see the first rain moving into our southern counties sometime late Thursday evening from the southwest. We should see another breif period of dry weather from late Saturday through early Monday morning, as we await the arrival of another area of low pressure, that is forecast to bring another round of rain to the area by Monday afternoon. Regarding temperatures in the extended, readings should be above normal on average, with most days seeing readings ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. We could see highs reaching the low to mid 60s on Sunday, and the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday, as strong warm air advection occurs ahead of the incoming storm system that day. We will also likely see very low dewpoints again on Wednesday. With winds again expected to marginal, and afternoon RHs also low, we will continue to monitor critical fire danger thresholds across the area through mid-week.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024 Mostly cloudy skies, with ceilings ranging from 3-6k feet agl, will hang on through this evening, before scattering out from northwest to southeast overnight, as a deeper upper level disturbance exits. Some flurries and even an isolated snow shower will also be seen early this evening, with KSJS seeing the best chance of temporary MVFR/IFR conditions from these through 01z. The rest of the terminals will remain VFR. Once the lower clouds diminish, only some passing high clouds will be seen through the rest of the period. West northwest to northwest winds of 8 to 12 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts, will diminish to 5 to 10 kts through 01 or 02z. Winds will then back to the southwest towards dawn Tuesday. These will increase to 12 to 17 kts, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts, by late morning. Winds will peak during the afternoon hours.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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