Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221919 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 319 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Outflow from convection last night has kicked off some convection as it has crossed northern Kentucky this afternoon. A modest shear gradient is over eastern Kentucky with modest unidirectional flow in the north, to much weaker flow to the south. This will keep the stronger storms in the north through this evening with more isolated and weaker activity to the south. All of this should gradually weaken into the evening as the outflow moves on through. Focus will shift back to the north later this evening as a cold front will focus additional convective development back to the north tonight. This activity will likely evolve into an MCS as it outflows to the south. This will carry any shower/storm activity into northern Kentucky once again. Some uncertainty remains in the track of any activity as initiation will play a big part on where a potential MCS tracks. However, most of the CAMS have some activity working into our area overnight into early Sunday morning. With a moist boundary layer remaining, some gusty winds will remain possible with storms as they track south and east. Tomorrow, the cold front will continue to make slow progress southward across eastern Kentucky and will continue to be the focus for additional shower and storm activity. What happens later in the day may be impacted by how the morning MCS pans out and what boundaries are left behind. However, we will keep the rain chances going through the day and through tomorrow night with better chances gradually shifting south with the front. Modest shear will be place along the cold frontal zone and will aid in the potential for a few severe storms with damaging winds continuing to be the main threat. Overall, looks like a few periods of wet weather will be possible over the next 36 hours. With the increase in clouds and precipitation, temperatures may stay a touch cooler tomorrow, but we may warm up between the morning MCS and afternoon convection, with mid to upper 80s still anticipated. This will keep heat index values in the 90s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Long term discussion to follow shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017 Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through the period. A widely isolated shower or storm could impact areas through this afternoon. A brief wind gusts up to 20 or 30 mph will be possible with this activity. Activity will diminish this evening, before another chance arrives late tonight. If we stay clear, we could see some valley fog develop. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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