Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 092027 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 327 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 327 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Surface high pressure will continue to build east through the night. While the primary high will remain in Canada, but lobes of the high will progress east into the region and will crest around 09 to 12Z time frame. This combined with cold air mass in place and clearing skies will lead widespread teens across the region. The valleys in the SW will have the best chance of seeing lower teens given the high timing and placement. We will probably see a few clouds in the north where Stratocu remains this afternoon and perhaps you could see a flurry. However the moisture in the growth layer is not nearly as much as advertised for last nights snowfall. Surface high will move east through the day Saturday and upper level pattern will flatten out. While most of the area will get above freezing some spots could remain around freezing. There will also be some high to mid clouds sliding across the region. That said even though the high continues to shift east would think we could see upper teens in the far eastern valley locales once again for Saturday night. The question will be clouds given moisture moves across the Northern Ohio Valley region, but the precip stays well north of eastern KY through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Longer range models continue to have a very cold look with cross polar flow aimed into the northern U.S. by the end of the period. Someone is going to get really cold, but questions remain about how far south the cold air makes it and whether or not it arrives with snow. First things first, a shortwave passing from the northern Plains Sunday into the Great Lakes region on Monday will force a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Model timing differences are diminishing and overall timing is slowing some with the bulk of the precipitation expected Sunday night into Monday morning. This should be all rain with good warm advection in advance of the front. In fact, temps will likely rise Sunday night but will have to watch our eastern valleys as the dry airmass preceding the system will cool quickly if there are any breaks in the clouds during the evening. This could set us up for some patchy freezing rain at onset, but that is only a remote possibility right now. At least another half an inch of rain is likely to fall with this system before it exits on Monday. Forecast details for the Tuesday through Friday period remain rather murky, especially with precipitation chances. Model agreement is actually not that bad with temperatures, as the 12z runs of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all show an arctic cold front passing through Wednesday or Wednesday night. The GFS moves this front through with some rain, followed by a brief shot of snow. The ECMWF remains largely precip free. Both models have wavered little with their solutions over the past couple of days. The SuperBlend guidance continues to offer a nice compromise offering a small chance of rain on Tuesday followed by a 30-40 percent chance of rain/snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a lingering chance of snow into Wednesday night. Will keep Thursday and Friday dry for now with well below normal temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 MVFR CIGs remains the story for TAF sites this afternoon, and VIS SAT does show that this deck is starting to erode in the Lake Cumberland region. This low deck is expected to continue to erode and should scattered out between 20 to 21Z timeframe from SW to NE. Winds have been around the 5 to 10 knot mark as expected and will die off this evening once we decouple. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJ

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