Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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345 FXUS63 KJKL 251125 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 725 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 700 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017 Although the front has helped to clear out the fog from the more open areas and ridges, it is holding on in the river valleys - likely dense in spots. This shows up well on the nighttime microphysics composite channel of GOES 16. Have fine tuned the sky cover and fog coverage for the next couple of hours and also updated the T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017 07z sfc analysis shows a summertime cold front dropping south through eastern Kentucky. This is attempting to bring drier air into the JKL CWA on light north to northeast winds. This is also helping to keep the fog in check north of the Mountain Parkway while locations to the south are still experiencing patchy fog with likely some locally dense spots in the sheltered southern valleys. Temperatures currently are varying from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s in the south. Meanwhile dewpoints are running in the low 60s far north to the upper 60s and lower 70s south. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict rising heights over the region as a large area of ridging spreads in from the southwest. This occurs in the wake of a departing trough over the Northeast. Weak energy packets will slide southeast in the mid level northwest flow through the Ohio Valley but stay too far north to have much of an effect on Kentucky in the rising heights environment. Given the agreement have favored a general model blend through Wednesday evening. Sensible weather will feature patchy fog along with some local dense spots dissipating by mid morning with a drier and somewhat more comfortable afternoon for most places thanks to high pressure and a change of air mass. Look for a quiet night to follow with temperatures about a category cooler than early this morning and any fog likely confined to the deeper river valleys. Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today and humidity levels will climb as the front to the south starts to work back north with returning moisture. Can`t completely rule out a shower or storm in the far southwest for Wednesday afternoon, but in all likelihood the entire area will be dry through Wednesday evening. Again used the CONSShort as the start for the forecast grids with only minor point adjustments made to lows and highs. Basically zeroed out PoPs for all but the Cumberland Valley today and Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017 Eastern Kentucky should see a brief period of dry weather to begin the period, as a ridge of high pressure remains in place Wednesday night. Based on the latest model data, however, this ridge will quickly be displaced by an approaching cold front Thursday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to break out in the warm moist air ahead off the front Thursday morning. The precipitation will gradually become more widespread Thursday afternoon, as the front begins to move southward through the Ohio Valley. The most widespread rain is expected to occur Thursday night and Friday, as the front drifts southward across the region. By late Friday afternoon, showers and storms should begin to move out of the area and into eastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia. This trend should continue Friday night, as the front moves into the Tennessee Valley. The last bit of rain should be out of the area by around dawn on Saturday. Another ridge of high pressure should then bring more dry weather to eastern Kentucky Saturday and Saturday night. A series of passing weather systems are then forecast to bring more rounds of showers and storms to the area from Sunday through Monday night. Temperatures are expected to start out around normal to begin the period, before transitioning to normal to below normal values from Friday onward. The coolest period should be Friday through Saturday, when temperatures are expected to max out in the lower 80s. Nightly lows will start off around 70 degrees the first couple of nights of the extended, before decreasing to the low to mid 60s the rest of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017 Drier air has started to work in from the north helping to keep the fog at bay for the northern TAF sites this morning, though some patches of lower stratus in the MVFR range did develop. Conditions everywhere will improve to VFR by mid morning, though winds will remain light, near 5 knots or less, mainly from the northeast. Expect some patchy river valley fog to also develop tonight but likely only affecting the SME and SJS sites.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF

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