Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 021854 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL. THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 LONG TERM WILL BE OUT SHORTLY... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STORMY TAF PERIOD OVERALL. THIS AFTERNOON MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES ARE SEEING LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM THE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THIS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID KEEP TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT VCTS/VCSH AT THIS POINT. ALSO SEEM REASONABLE THAT FOG AND LOWER CEILING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...EXCEPT PERHAPS WITH STORM ACTIVITY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.