Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220813 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 413 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL SINK SE FROM WV TO THE SEABOARD OF VA AND NC BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NE DIRECTION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A SHALLOW RIDGING PATTERN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...AND RIDE ALONG NW FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NE/RN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP THESE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES JUST ALONG PIKE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PULL OF WINDS FROM THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT...LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAY TODAY. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO...BESIDES HIGH WINDS ALOFT...IS A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARDS AND INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW..AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN TALK BETWEEN THE OFFICES CONCERNING WHETHER OR NOT TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFTS AND LET THEM DECIDE IF ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER ADDING IN FROST FOR LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS 37 DEGREES OR LESS...WE STILL SEEM TO BE A BIT LIMITED ON COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE FAR NORTH...FAR SOUTH...AND IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ADDING IN FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTING 38 DEGREES AND UNDER...WOULD PUT MUCH OF THE AREA IN PATCHY/AREAL COVERAGE AND MATCHED UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WEIGHING BOTH SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO STICK WITH INCLUDING FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 37 DEGREES OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF SPARSER COVERAGE...SINCE 38 DEGREES SEEMED TO BE PUSHING THE LIMITS OF BEING TOO WARM FOR ICE TO FORM. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E. KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW

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