Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290838 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 438 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 A COLD FRONT IS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HELPING TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WHILE ONE BATCH OF RAIN IS ON THE WAY OUT INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ONE IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. FARTHER NORTH...AREAS NORTH OF I-64 HAVE DRIED OUT...AND SHOULD STAY THIS WAY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE THE BIGGEST THREAT. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. PRETTY GOOD CLEARING BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND THIS SHOULD ALSO WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 60...BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S. WHILE NOT IDEAL...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FAVOR MORE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...SO WILL CONFINE THE FROST TO MAINLY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER A COLDER START THURSDAY AND THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THIS SAID AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SE TOWARD THE REGION EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUAL TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT. THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SINCE YESTERDAY WITH DEEP UL LOW BASED ON DPROG/DT. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STILL MORE ON THE SIDE OF RAIN SHOWER HOWEVER DID INTRODUCE MIX WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT. POPS DO DROP OFF SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SE OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH HARD FREEZE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING MONDAY UNDER RETURN FLOW. CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY WILL STICK WITH BLENDED POPS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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