Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280353 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1053 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1041 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY AND POINTS TO OUR N AND E. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF EROSION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY COVER WEST CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE OUR CWA BEGINS CLEARING OUT...IN WHICH CASE CONTINUING THE CLOUD COVER SEVERAL HOURS LONGER IN THE GRIDS WAS WARRANTED. GIVEN THE NW WINDS...FALLING TEMPS 30 AND BELOW...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...FLURRIES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AND IN NEIGHBORING CWAS AS WELL. THE UPDATE MADE EARLIER THIS EVENING INTRODUCED ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING BACK...THESE FLURRIES WOULD PROBABLY HAVE WARRANTED EITHER A SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD WORDING. WITH THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...SINCE IT IS LIKELY THAT MANY LOCATIONS ARE SEEING SOME STOPPING AND ENDING TO THE FLURRIES...INSTEAD OF CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. EXPECT THESE FLURRIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KY AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. IN ADDITION TO THESE CHANGES...ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THESE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR AND OBS CONTINUED TO SHOW REPORTS OF ISL TO SCT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SUPPORT CLOUDS POSSIBLY STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY. IF CLOUDS DO STICK AROUND LONGER...SO TOO COULD THE FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE. THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN THE TEENS. THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS KY. AS IT DOES...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ACTUALLY PERSISTING LONGER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WHEN THEY SHOWED CIGS LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...KEPT MENTION OF BKN CLOUDS IN TAFS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...LOWERED THE CIGS TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VFR CONDITIONS WILL BREAK IN OCCASIONALLY...BUT MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION UNTIL THE DRY AIR FINALLY STARTS WORKING IN. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...NW WINDS...AND COLD CONDITIONS...SCATTERED AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...INCLUDING AT KSJS AND KJKL. THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD POSE LITTLE AVIATIONAL IMPACTS...AND SHOULD NOT BE CONTINUOUS. AS SUCH...KEPT MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND THE CLOUDS BEGIN ERODING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

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