Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281355 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 955 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOW BE NEARING THE WESTERN FRINGES OF KY...ELONGATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN THE LATEST PRECIP TRENDS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...HAVE DECIDED TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE POPS INTO OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE LINE...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN 17 AND 19Z. THIS MATCHES UP WITH ILN/S UPDATES AS WELL...AS THEY ARE ALSO ANTICIPATING THIS LINE MOVING THROUGH THEIR CWA AT A MUCH FASTER RATE THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW THE LINE LOSING SPEED AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN KY...SO WAS ABLE TO BLEND IT BACK INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/S GRIDS BY LATE TONIGHT...AROUND THE TIME THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END IN THE WEST. ALONG WITH SPEEDING UP THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...NEEDED TO MAKE SURE THAT THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS WERE WELL REFLECTED. UPDATED THE DIURNAL CURVE TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND IN TEMPS /AND INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/ ONCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGAN MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE CWA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. BASED ON TIMING TOOLS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS REGION SHORTLY AFTER 2 PM. BASED ON THIS TIMING...HAVE BROUGHT UP POPS A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE VERY MINOR IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW...SEEING MOST STATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS HAVE GONE THROUGH REPORTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HAD ONE STATION IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA REPORT A WIND GUST UP TO 40 MPH EARLIER TONIGHT...SO IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 RIDGING HAS SLID WELL OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO ENTER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EXTRA CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY...PREVENTING US FROM REACHING MORE RECORDS. HOWEVER...THE JACKSON RECORD IS ONLY 78...SO WE COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING VALUE...BUT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE US FALLING SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDER CHANCES LOOK DECENT LATER TODAY. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 50 MPH. SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A 5 PERCENT AREA OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE SKY COVER...LEAVING A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO THE LOWER 60S...MAKING FOR A FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY FOR MID FALL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE MOVE INTO LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP SOME AREAS FROM MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS AIRMASS USHERS IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO EVEN LOWER 40S IN SOME SPOTS AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. MOVING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH KILLING FREEZE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER RETURN FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TAF SITES WILL ONLY FEATURE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER STORM OR SHOWER COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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