Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 450 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 450 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 20z sfc analysis shows relative high pressure through the area and this is keeping the shower threat at bay while some activity is noted well to the west. On satellite, a cu field at near 5k feet is starting to diminish as the sun is heading down. Temperatures did get up to the low 80s most places, just above normals and the earlier guidance. Meanwhile, with light northerly winds, dewpoints are generally in the lower 60s. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a weakening ridge over the southeast part of the nation. Through this, some weak mid level energy will pass over Kentucky. The first patch of these fade out tonight with another one reaching the northern part of the area Monday afternoon before dissipating to the north into the night. Given the model symmetry will favor a blended solution with a lean toward the higher resolution CAMs and a good bit of persistence - especially at night. Sensible weather will feature more of the same in this relatively stagnant pattern. Expect mostly clear skies at night with areas of fog developing toward midnight and becoming locally dense in the river valleys. Monday will be another warm late summer day with partly sunny skies and just a small chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm and mainly just over our Bluegrass region in the northwest parts of the CWA. Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point of all the grids making some adjustments to the temperature ones each night based on terrain in anticipation of small to moderate ridge and valley splits. As for PoPs, kept them in for Monday afternoon as the sfc high and ridge aloft is not that strong and there have been hints of convection in the models for that time frame in the past couple of runs. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 The latest blended model data suggests that eastern Kentucky will see periods of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Saturday. Any storms would occur mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. There will be a couple of days when most or all of the rain will occur along and south of the Mountain Parkway, and a few other days when the showers and storms will be scattered across the entire area. It still appears that temperatures in the extended will be well above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s expected, and nightly lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. Winds should be generally light and variable.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Scattered to broken cumulus at around 5k feet agl will affect the area through the rest of the afternoon before disipating this evening. IFR or worse fog will be seen once again in the valleys between 06 and 12z with some impact expected on the TAF sites, but not quite as bad as this morning. Winds will average below 5 kts through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF

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