Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010212 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1012 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 JUST SENT OUT THE FINAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING. ENDED UP GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS STILL LINGERING IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND IN VALLEYS SEEING LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES FROM DAWN THROUGH SUN UP. REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED PREVIOUSLY OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT. LASTLY...UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THAT VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...MOST OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MOMENT. SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE A STRATUS DECK MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT AT THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEY FLOORS BELOW. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE FINAL FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING. WILL SEND OUT AN OFFICIAL UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT LATER IN THE SHIFT WITH FINAL GRID EDITS AND GENERAL WORDING UPDATES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL VORTS IN THE VICINITY OF KY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONE OF THEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE OTHER MEANDERS TO THE WEST. THE VORT THAT MEANDERS TO THE WEST WILL COME BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE IS HANDLED GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT ITS EMBEDDED IN...BUT THE MODELS AT LEAST ALL AGREE ON KEEPING TUESDAY DRY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVES BY THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE 60 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED BOTH NIGHTS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS TODAY SPAWNING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MEANDER VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIME AND THIS MAY SPAWN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OVER OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO MERGE WITH A PIECE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS OR DEEP SOUTH...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...THROUGH THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY HANDLING THE WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE MORE DOMINANT RIDGE VERY WELL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO TEMPER THE HEAT SOME...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND WILL PREVAIL. FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST AROUND 4Z THIS TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED BY DAWN TUESDAY. HAVE PUT IN IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSEST FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

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