Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271107 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE FOR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IS STRATUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CREATED MVFR CIGS AT JKL...SME...AND SYM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE TAF GRIDS THROUGH 15Z TO REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ANTICIPATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY ONCE THE SUN IS UP...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...NO MENTION WAS MADE OF THEM IN THE TAFS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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