Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250525 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MORE ROBUST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST. WEB CAMS AND SEVERAL OBS THROUGH THE AREA SUGGEST THAT THE FOG IS ALREADY PRETTY THICK IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS AND ALSO ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS...ZONES...AND HWO. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH THE GRIDS. ALSO...FINE TUNED THE SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REFLECT EARLY THAN EXPECTED ONSET OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON PAR WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO ASSESS IF ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED LATER IN THE SHIFT...BUT FOR NOW...THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADVECTION OF VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LAG BEHIND...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD COOL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS WOULD YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700MB AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A SEVERE WX THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO ARRIVE. EVEN SO...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON MONDAY AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES AWAY AND GETS SCOURED OUT. HAVE CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE IT HERE AT MIDWEEK...AND PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE LARGE TROUGH...AND PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS GENERATE PRECIP...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY...HAVE OPTED TO USE NOTHING HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS...AND ONLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HALTING AND STAGGERED THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE TREND IN THE CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE DOWNWARD. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TAKEN THEM DOWN TO VLIFR FOR A TIME TOWARD DAWN WITH SOME TEMPOS ON THE WAY DOWN. THE FOG WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING WITH JUST SOME VFR FAIR WEATHER CU LEFT BEHIND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GREIF

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