Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 250031 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 731 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 716 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND WINDS ARE NOW HEADING EAST OF THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LESS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE...THINGS SEEM TO BE DYING DOWN. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE SHORT TERM POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED BOTH ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND THE LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA. THIS ADDED ISOLATED CHANCES BACK INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT ALSO BUMPED SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK DOWN TO ISOLATED COVERAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BUT THESE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO BOONEVILLE TO BARBOURVILLE. A SOLID LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE LASTING LESS THAN 10 MINUTES BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE LINE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY AROUND 6 PM. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND PROVIDES A RENEWED...BUT OVERALL SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL ALOFT...AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO NOT COOL OFF QUITE ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH VALLEYS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT LEAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DY4...SUNDAY. THEREAFTER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE TREND MODELS DO APPEAR TO AGREE ON HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN... GENERALLY DEEP AND BROAD WESTERN CONUS TOUGH WHICH OPENS UP INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS ADVERTISE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST... AND/OR BAJA. IF CORRECT THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED WE SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUALLY COLDER PATTERN WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY SET US UP FOR SOME INTERESTING WEATHER BEFORE OR BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...BUT AGAIN OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER DY4. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WARM...WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER OUR WEATHER BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. BUT WHAT HAD BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN WITH A FASTER SECONDARY WAVE FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS PROGRESSIVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A MODEL BLEND HANGING ONTO SOME LOWS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 730 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF THE REGION...LEAVING BEHIND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WINDS WHICH ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO SUBSIDE. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY...COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD POSE LITTLE THREAT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 25KTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE HEAD INTO OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVC AND IN THE MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE TAF PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE QUITE CALM. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.