Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300845 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 345 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND TROUGHING ARE CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S. THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOLSTER THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THANKS TO READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES YESTERDAY WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW RESTRICTED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT COVERING ON SOME SHADED AREAS ALONG ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IS STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN LOWS FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DUSK WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO OVERCOME. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM DUE TO THE MODEL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BRING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US LOW AND TRY TO PHASE IT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER... THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS IS WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES....ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST 12Z/29 GFS RUN WHICH DEEPENS THE SFC LOW AND TAKES IT UP ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS. ONE THING THE MODELS DO HAVE IN COMMON IS THE AMOUNT OF QPF THEY SHOW. ANOTHER QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR STAYS IN PLACE AND THIS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THAT BEING SAID... HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD MOST OF THE MOIST COLUMN BELOW ZERO WITH SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW. THOUGH...STILL BELIEVE THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A COLD AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF USHERING IN WARMER AIR. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO KENTUCKY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT ENDING ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS IN BEHIND IT... DROPPING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY BUT QUIET DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 149 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALSO BRING A WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. W TO NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DUSK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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