Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230234 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT A BIT. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES AS THEY CONTINUE TO FALL OFF QUICKLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DROP OFF HAS BEEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE LATEST HOURLY VALUES ON THEIR WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS BY MORNING. WHILE A FEW UPPER 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE...MOST OF THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH THE FACT DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT QUITE WELL YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD VERY LITTLE FOG WITH ONLY SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S IN SOME SPOTS...FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE 3 TO 4K FT LEVEL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEARS BODIES OF WATER. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER 6Z. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD...EXPECT IT TO FIZZLE OUT UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND GENERALLY OF THE HIGH CIRRUS/STRATO VARIETY. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OR THE OVERALL WEATHER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SPEAKING OF TOMORROW...OTHER THAN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEIR INCREASING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. STILL LOOKING A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 40S OVERNIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERALLY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A DIURNAL FLAVOR EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT MIDWEEK PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE COVERAGE AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE GENERALLY DOMINATING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR BEST CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THE REGION MIGHT END UP CAPPED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF AIRPORTS. IF ANY FOG WERE TO AFFECT AN AIRPORT...SJS MAY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AS DEWPOINTS ONLY FELL INTO THE MID 40S TODAY IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...LOWS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THESE VALUES...SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KAS

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