Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211104 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL 9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FAR EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY... AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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