Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS... TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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