Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300757 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A 20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS... THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A DETERIORATION TO IFR AND MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL

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