Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241151 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING. DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN AFTER 5Z TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z TONIGHT...AND JKL AND SJS BETWEEN 7 AND 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO THREATEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS AT ALL SITES.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR/GEOGERIAN

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