Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210545 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. THIS COOLING IS HELPING TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DEEP INTO THE 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...THANKS IN PART TO LIGHT WINDS KEEPING THE AIR ON THE HILL TOPS MIXED. EXPECT THE RIDGES TO DROP OFF TOWARD DAWN...BUT A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREE ELEVATIONALLY BASED DIFFERENCE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER FROM THE LOW RH/S EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING WEST LIBERTY...WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO BETTER PICK UP ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE LOW RH LOCATIONS TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND MIX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK FOR A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AND BEGINNING TO THE DAY MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. INCONSEQUENTIAL PATCHES OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 4 AND 6KT FEET MSL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...CONTINUING AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF

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