Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251348 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 948 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 948 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 Surface analysis shows low pressure still resides off the Carolina Coast line and we remain in the east to northeast flow at the surface. However, there is a decent southeast 850MB jet punching into Appalachia and this is aiding in inducing some light showers in the far east this morning. This jet is expected to decrease and this will lead to a loss in rain showers. No major changes needed for this forecast update. UPDATE Issued at 657 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 A few showers have made it into our far eastern counties, so tossed in a chance of rain for the morning hours, mainly impacting our eastern most 3 counties. Showers should wind down by mid day as the mid level ridge works towards the region. No other changes planned at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 An upper level low will slowly push north along the Atlantic coast through Wednesday as shortwave ridging pushes into eastern Kentucky. Presently, moisture from the system off to the southeast is starting to work back west across the Appalachians, but hasn`t been having much luck making the long journey over the mountains. This will likely continue to be the case despite the models trying to have precipitation spread back into our eastern counties this morning. We could see a few sprinkles, but we will be hard pressed to see much measurable precipitation. In fact, latest radar trends continue to show the front edge of precipitation barely making any progress over the mountains. Thus, will go back towards a dry forecast for today with some early day clouds. As the ridging spreads in the clouds should gradually thin and diminish through the day. This will set up a couple pleasant days as highs today will be well into the 70s. Weak return flow on Wednesday will boost highs back into the 80s. With little or no precipitation, rivers should continue to recede through the period. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 444 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 The models remain in good agreement with an amplified long wave pattern to affect the CONUS through the period. The central CONUS will be under the influence of a trough, with several short waves to translate across the Mississippi Valley. This will result in generally unsettled weather across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, although unseasonable warmth will also accompany this pattern. A cold front will approach and eventually move through eastern Kentucky late Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. This front will be shearing out as it moves through, and instability will likely be modest; however, given the stout 0-3km shear in place, can not rule out some damaging winds, and have continued to mention this in the HWO. A developing warm front will be nearby Friday and Friday night, with POPs ramping back up to good chance, especially across the Bluegrass. This boundary will lift far enough north by Saturday, to only allow for a rain showers at peak heating. By Sunday, a robust system will be taking shape to our west, with a more stout cold front approaching and eventually moving through Sunday into Monday. For now, have accepted the highest given POP for Sunday night; however, this may shift in time. The front will be exiting on Monday, with rain chances decreasing from west to east through the day. Temperatures will average well above normal through the period, with highs generally in the 80s Friday through Sunday, while lows average in the 50s and 60s. As was mentioned previously, this will ensure April of 2017 as one of the warmest Aprils on record across eastern Kentucky. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 657M EDT TUE APR 25 2017 Some patchy IFR/MVFR cigs have developed across the area this morning mainly impacting our eastern areas, including KJKL and KSJS. Will carry these low cigs for the next few hours this morning before cigs gradually improve towards midday or early afternoon. Some valley fog will also burn off this morning, but this is not currently impacting any TAF sites. After VFR conditions and light winds this afternoon, valley fog will once again dominate across the region tonight. While the fog could creep into some of the TAF sites, not confident enough to include at this time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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