Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 150828 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 328 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 Available shortly... .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 The period begins Saturday night with high pressure to our southeast and ridging aloft. Despite the gradient from approaching system to the southeast think the eastern valleys will decouple early and lead to at least a 5 degree ridge/valley split Saturday night. Then we see a southern stream shortwave ride northeast out of Texas and this will bring overrunning precipitation toward the area by Sunday. We continue to see models slowing the progression of this system and therefore have slowed this down further from previous forecast. There was talk of mix precipitation in previous forecast, but given the slower progression this has been removed. The models have also trended drier, as the upper level wave dampens overtime and 850mb jet is fairly weak overall. The better low level jet will be strongest in the afternoon on Sunday leading to more confidence for later onset. We remain in the southwest flow regime through early next week and therefore keep small chances of precipitation each day with lowest POP day being Monday. The next best chance of rain showers will be Tuesday, with the help of a jet streak and shortwave aloft. The flow aloft does flatten out and a surface high progresses east out of the Central Plains to round out the period. This will lead to cooler nights and better shots of seeing ridge/valley splits. Overall afternoon high temperatures will be near to above normal and low temperatures near to above normal.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 114 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017 A stratocu deck will expand and gradually lower down to MVFR levels across the area through around dawn. This deck will then raise up and dissipate by the mid to late morning hours, with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Light and variable winds through the late morning, will become westerly at 5 to 10 kts, with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts at times, in the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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