Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER. DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY... BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS. OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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