Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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079 FXUS63 KJKL 191339 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 939 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE VA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT UPSLOPE NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE STRATUS AND STRATOCU TO PERSIST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO VA BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS FALLEN HERE AT JKL IN THE PAST FEW MINUTES FROM THE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON RADAR RETURNS...THIS IS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING IN OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COALFIELDS AS WELL. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. A COUPLE HOURS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS ADDED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO TWO TO THREE TIERS OF COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF THE VA BORDER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THAT TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE REMAIN IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AS A RESULT WSR-88D RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SPOTS ARE SEEING SOME FOG STILL THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE DAY. MADE MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT ON IR SAT THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING USHERED INTO THOSE AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING BASED OF WSR-88D RADAR. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS AIR MASS COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO NO WINDS AND AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY ADDING TO THE MOIST AIR MASS HAS FOSTERED AREAS OF FOG...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT GENERALLY AFTER 13Z...AS FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SUN RISES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH REASONABLE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES. ALSO GIVEN CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WE MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WILL BREAKDOWN AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A PIECE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AT MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IT WILL GET PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AROUND THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF AND NAM GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP IN OUR AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY. WITHOUT A CLEAR PREFERENCE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE LOW POPS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE ON A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...TURNING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SE CONUS RIDGE AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FEATURES PRECLUDING HIGHER POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 SITES ARE STARTING OFF IFR TO LIFR THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IR/WV SAT AND OBS INDICATE DRIER AND AT MOST HIGH CLOUDS INCHING CLOSER TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT WITH MOST SITES EXPECTED TO GO TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THINK THIS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR ON THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ

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