Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 222215 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 615 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 615 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 WSR-88D radar indicating isolated to scattered showers and storms are tracking slowly south and east across eastern KY. The best coverage has resided across the north and east portions of the CWA. The CAMS have struggled given the more mesoscale driven nature of the storms. Also not handling the outflow boundary which is emanating southwest from the storms. While this outflow may kick off a few more storms as it moves SW, the loss of daytime heating will lead to a down tick overall in any storms ongoing or that develop. Those that do see storms will see heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. More minor updates to mainly pop to better handle ongoing convection.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Two issues to address in the short term part of the forecast. First is the chance for thunderstorms for the remainder of today and then on Saturday. A weak mid level short wave is passing across the area this afternoon. Convection that has been developing in the northern part of our area has been short lived with an apparent mid level cap in place which is hinted at by some of the model data. As this cap continues to weaken should see isolated to scattered storms mainly in the north and west for the latter part of the afternoon. With outflow from any convection late today possibly triggering additional convection, the threat for a few showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight. With the passage of the short wave tonight it appears that the better chance for thunderstorms on Saturday will be over the southern part of the area. However chance will remain low, about 30 percent chance in the south and 20 percent chance in the north on Saturday. The second issue to address is the heat for Saturday. Current temperature forecast for Saturday is for maximums in the lower 90s, and this will combine with humidity to once again push heat indices to around 100. With heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees will still not need to issue a heat advisory for our area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Models continue to show good agreement and continuity with mid and upper level features through the period. Broad, flattened mid and upper level ridge across the southern CONUS buckles in response to multiple short wave troughs tracking across the northern tier. The main center of the high retrogrades to the west coast just as the all too familiar Bermuda High reforms off the southeastern United States. In between a mean trough develops over the Upper Mid-West and Great Lake Region by the end of the forecast window. With our area lying on the southern periphery of an active northern stream, sensible weather will manage some isolated to at times scattered convection at just about any time through the period. There will be a greater chance of rainfall early next week as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late Monday, or possibly Tuesday. This boundary stalls out and will tend to keep any convection focused across the region through mid week. What`s left of the boundary lifts northward Thursday, just as another trough begins to drop into the region from the northwest by late Thursday or Friday. The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for this time of the year, or possibly slightly cooler. But overall our weather will remain quite muggy. Overnight lows will be warm, running a little above normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with the exception being some MVFR visibility in fog late tonight and early Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will affect the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon, and will carry a VCTS at SYM. Some patchy fog will likely develop late tonight, mainly in the LOZ and SME areas and in river valleys. Winds will remain light through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across the entire forecast area. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...SBH

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