Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151941 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 341 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 TWO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THIS SEEMS LIKE A VERY REASONABLE SCENARIO. IN FACT...THE EXISTING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOKED VERY GOOD. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE HERE AND THERE FRO TONIGHTS LOWS...BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES EASILY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST FOLKS...WITH SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS. THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A HARD FREEZE. THE NEW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS AND OUR FREEZE WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN UPDATED AND IS GOOD UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINGS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WE WILL SEE TONIGHT. AREAS OF FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND THE SITUATION WILL BEAR WATCHING TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER FREEZE PRODUCT WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF NUANCED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT MAKES THE EXTENDED FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT. ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND AS IT DOES IT WILL FALL APART. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHET ER THIS WILL BE MOSTLY JUST CLOUDS OR WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. CHOSE TO GO WITH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH TENDS TO PUT MORE ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM RATHER THAN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SJS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA. JKL AND LOZ COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD CREATE ANY REAL ISSUES FOR AVIATORS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA AND LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PERSIST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY BETWEEN 1 AND 3Z TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...AR

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