Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
075 FXUS63 KJKL 050800 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE NEW FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS/GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.