Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030250 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES TO DISCUSS AT THE END OF THE EVENING SHIFT. FIRST...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WAS UPDATED AND ISSUED AT 1040 PM. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO IT...JUST WANTED TO ISSUE AN UPDATED PRODUCT SO THE MID SHIFT WILL NOT HAVE TO MESS WITH IT UNTIL LATER IN THEIR SHIFT. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND OTHER UPSTREAM LOCATIONS. LEFT IN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN CASE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRES OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE POPS ARE A LOT LOWER THAN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING...THERE JUST WILL NOT BE AS HIGH A LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DIMINISHEDSHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 FORECAST STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL LEAVE THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO UPDATE LATER IN THE SHIFT TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING AND TO UPDATE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL. THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER WHENEVER A THUNDERSTORM OR INTENSE RAIN SHOWER AFFECTS A TAF SITE...PERHAPS RESULTING IN LIFR OR WORSE CIGS AND VSBYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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