Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221042 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 642 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 642 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 Given latest obs showing cooling temperatures and winds veering to the west and northwest suggest the cold front has made it through most the region this morning. Given the radar trends could not see any reason having slight POPs this morning and therefore cleared that out. The fog is probably limited but kept some patchy fog for an hour for the valleys. Overall forecast is on track at this time but did update with latest obs and trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW winds and high pressure to build east. Latest SAT data does show some high cloud streaming in and therefore did keep a few more clouds in the forecast today from what guidance was suggesting. Do think this will be mostly high clouds at or around 20 KFT. Did keep a small area of slight POPs this morning, otherwise based on radar trends most will remain dry this morning as drier air advances east. Tonight an upper level shortwave across the lower MS River Valley and 850mb jet aid in cyclogenesis across Lower MS and AL. The surface low will deepen as it ejects into the Carolinas. There remains some uncertainty in how much or any moisture can make it north into the region. Perhaps the biggest issue will be cloud cover and how much. This will have implications on temperatures and therefore held back more on temp splits in the east and southeast. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland valley locales. Do introduce slight POPs in the far SE toward dawn, but uncertain if this will in fact play out as mentioned above. This complication continues Tuesday, as a surface low tracks NE. The ECMWF and some CAMs suggest showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible in the far SE. Given that could not go completely dry, but do think that best shot of seeing anything will remain in the far SE toward VA. This as convection to the south and east will likely cutoff much of the moisture into eastern KY. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 422 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 An amplified and unsettled pattern will remain in place across the CONUS through the long term. A deep long wave trough will be in place across the middle of the country through mid-week. This will shift to the Eastern Seaboard towards the end of the work week, with some transient short wave ridging to move through the Mississippi Valley on Friday. Another trough, of lower amplitude than its predecessor, will then move in for the weekend. There is decent model agreement through the middle of next week, before some evolution and timing differences crop up for the latter half of the forecast period. Periods of showers as well as below normal temperatures will be the main weather story across eastern Kentucky through Thursday night, as the deep trough gradually swings through the region. The best forcing coupled with some instability will culminate on Wednesday, bringing the threat of some thunder. Lowering freezing levels may allow for some of the showers/storms to contain small hail/graupel at times. Dry weather will temporarily return across eastern Kentucky by Friday, as the aforementioned transient short wave ridging moves across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Precip chances then ramp up once again from Friday night through the rest of the weekend, with another trough approaching from the west, with a frontal boundary likely nearby at the surface. The coolest highs will arrive on Thursday, with readings likely in the mid 60s. Highs will then return to the upper 70s on Friday, and then around the 80 degree mark for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of eastern Kentucky this hour. The more robust convection is nearer to the Cumberland Valley region. These will slide east and bring brief drops in CIGs and VIS over the next hour. Overall most sites will see drying conditions and improving CIGs and VIS through the period. The caveat may be the deeper valley locales where fog could form in areas that saw more rain today. Otherwise a surface high to our west will build in behind cold front moving across the area to lead to VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain light through the period and will veer to the west overtime behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ

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