000
FXUS63 KJKL 221820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST
OF JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE
EAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH
AND THEN SOME CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. AT THE TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH TIME
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABSENT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOME
THUNDER WILL BE ADDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST OF
JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE EAST
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE CONVECTION
GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH AND THEN SOME
CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. AT THE
TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUT SOME MIST IN THE FORECAST THINKING THAT
ALL THE STATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. LATER THIS EVENING AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO IFR VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR UNTIL AFTER 6Z WHEN
SOME MIST WILL BE FORMING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ