Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041156 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 656 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 648 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A LAYER OF LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH STILL NO SIGNS OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KY...BUT MAY GET EXPEDITED SOMEWHAT BY DAYTIME MIXING AS THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OVERALL...FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND WINDS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB...THOUGH NO NEW FORECAST PACKAGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. AS LOW END VFR CLOUDS BEGAN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THAT THIS CLOUD DECK MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH LLVL SATURATION TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLE OR FLURRY ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LESS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED FROM THE MODELS...AND HAS THUS NOT PRODUCED ANY PRECIP SO FAR. EVEN THE LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OR MORNING. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AN REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THIS FROM THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY NW WINDS TODAY WILL PROMOTE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOLING CONDITIONS. DESPITE GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 40 BY THIS AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE RECORD BREAKING MID 60 HIGHS YESTERDAY. CALM WINDS TONIGHT...AND ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY LOW 20S ACROSS THE CWA. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW...THIS COULD PROMOTE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS KY...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 40S WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALOFT...IN THE BROADEST SENSE... THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEY ARE FAR FROM MESHING WITH THE SHORTER WAVE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY AFTER THE WEEKEND. LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND...THEY ALL PUSH A BRIEF RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWEEPING A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH...ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW...THOUGH THE GFS IS NOW THE WEAKEST AND FASTEST WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MATCH UP BETTER. WHILE THAT SOUTHERN LOW IS PASSING...A NORTHERN STREAM ONE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY WITH JUST SOME WEAK ENERGY SLIPPING THROUGH OUR STATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN PROMPT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS THE MODELS AGREE UPON...WITH THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF TAKES THE CORE OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG...BUT BROADER...TROUGH FROM THE GFS COVERING THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION PORTENDS AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WHOLE TROUGH QUICKLY FILLS AND GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST WHEN THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AND SEEP SOUTHEAST. SEEMINGLY MINOR DETAILS AROUND THE TROUGH/LOW DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST AT THE SFC AND WITH WX DETAILS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND REMAINS THE PREFERRED STARTING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED GRIDS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY AND SLOWLY MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER A BROAD EXPANSE ENCOMPASSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND DOWN OVER THIS PART OF KENTUCKY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THIS EVOLUTION LOCALLY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL SFC LOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FOCUS ON THE CLEARER INDICATIONS OF A COLDER TURN TO THE WEATHER AND SOLID CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE FAR MORE TRICKY AS THE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE COASTAL INTERACTION AND COULD TURN OUT RATHER PALTRY WITHOUT A SOLID CONNECTION TO THE EAST COAST WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNSATISFYINGLY LOW FOR AN EVENT THAT IS JUST A HANDFUL OF DAYS AWAY. AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A REASONABLE AMALGAMATION OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN KY. EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SOME MIXING TO ALSO HELP MIX OUT BKN CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY 15/16Z. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS. LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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