Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 311730 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NEW ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO POP UP IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS GOOD UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SHAVE SOME COUNTIES OFF OR CANCEL IT ALTOGETHER BY THE 4 PM AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN PLANNED AS OF YET. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 THE BAND OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL KY IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO EASTERN KY. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REGION REMAINED IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PW OF 2 INCHES OR MORE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WORKING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ATTM AS THE FIRST WAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEPART. HOWEVER...THE NEXT WAVE IS WORKING INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE INITIAL WAVE WILL DEPART TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT THE NEXT MOST EVIDENT AT THE 850 MB AND 700 MB LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INTERACT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO EASTERN KY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS TROUGH WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS BRING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ATTM AND WE PLAN TO KEEP IT IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER EXTENDING IT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...BUT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHTER THERE COMPARED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF WAYNE COUNTY AND FROM MCCREARY COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO LAUREL COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BELOW SATURDAYS LEVELS BY THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE WAVE DEPARTING TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO DIMINISH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. AT LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...WHERE ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. ON MONDAY...THE REGION WILL MORE OR LESS BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED POPS WERE USED. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON TAP. A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE STALLING. SOME WEAK FORCING WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DECENT SHEAR PROFILES...COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND VIRTUALLY WASH OUT. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKS END GIVEN THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ALL THE COOLER AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 13Z ON MONDAY...AS RAIN AND FOG FROM SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY AFFECT THE TAF AIRPORTS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER 0Z THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 8Z. EASTERN KENTUCKY MIGHT EVEN BE RAIN FREE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN FIRING UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS YET ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.