Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 270228 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1028 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. AS PREDICTED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WERE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TONIGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED MAINLY ON EXTRAPOLATION AND THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. IF ANY OF THE LOCATIONS MIX OUT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD JUMP OVER 10 DEGREES. SINCE THE WIND HAS BEEN SO LIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT MIX OUT AND A NORMAL NOCTURNAL DROP WILL BE EXPECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE BEFORE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THEM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO DROP FURTHER IN THOSE VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE FIRST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TRANSITING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPROACHES. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL A CHALLENGE. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT. BUT AFTER SEEING GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGHTS ARE THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL AND MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TRANSITION OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA PROPERLY...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THAN MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE WE WARM UP QUITE NICELY TOMORROW FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE HAD IN AWHILE. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE SHOWING UP OVER THE HORIZON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 TWO SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST ONE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE FRONT NEARS...EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPS BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING...BUT STILL SHOW THE LEADING AND TRAILING EDGES OF THE PRECIP IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA AT 00Z TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAKES THE 12HR POP FOR DAY VERSUS NIGHT TRICKY. THINK THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE PRECIP FROM THE SYSTEM...JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER IT OCCURS DURING THE DAY OR NIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY IS STILL INDICATED IN MODELS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS AGAIN INCLUDED. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT SE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE FAIR WX AND TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AT MIDWEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO HONE IN ON HOW THE SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...AND ARE STILL SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AGREEMENT ON A VERY CHILLY AIR MASS ARRIVING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...PROBABLY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON BY SUNDAY MORNING IN MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WHERE IT HAS NOT ENDED YET. IN TERMS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE VARIATIONS IN EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM HAVE RAMIFICATIONS FOR PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOW POPS FOR THIS ARE IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE FOG IS GOING TO BE A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE BEFORE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THEM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO DROP FURTHER IN THOSE VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE FIRST. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THOSE VALLEYS...THE FOG WILL ALSO BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORM. SO EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SOME VALLEYS WITH VLIFR AND SOME MVFR. THE TAF STATIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.