Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240223 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 923 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES. SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118-120. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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