Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271250 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 744 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF THIS BAND WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL DISSIPATION WITH EACH NEW RUN. MOST RECENT RUN INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE US WITH SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES. THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE BAND HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT THUS FAR. THEREFORE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR THE EARLY AND MID MORNING TIME FRAME WHILE MAINTAINING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALSO INCLUDED A SWATH OF SPRINKLES AHEAD OF THIS INITIAL BAND FOR SOME AREAS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ACTUAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY WERE LATE IN PICKING UP ON POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA. HRRR IS PICKING UP ON ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR WEST...OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND DOES BRING THAT EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. BUT ACTIVITY SUPPOSEDLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AROUND MID MORNING. OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE MODELS WIND UP HANDLING THIS POORLY AS WELL AND POPS NEED TO BE RAMPED UP MORE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED OVER CUBA IS RETREATING EASTWARD WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO RETREAT EASTWARD. CONTINUED MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE A SERIES OF SFC LOWS...THE FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TODAY. THIS FIRST LOW WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER WET THROUGH TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WEAK IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXITING TO OUR EAST...WITH CORRESPONDING ACTIVITY EXITING AS WELL. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH WE COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING TO NOON AS THE SECOND AREA OF ACTIVITY TO OUR FAR WEST WEAKENS WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. OUR MAIN EVENT...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH A RELATIVELY LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO PREFERRED TO GO WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE CWA MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SLOWLY LESSEN POPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS BETTER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. AFTER THIS THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION. OTHER THAN THAT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS EXIST AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY. TIMING ON THE PRECIP DIFFER AT THIS POINT WITH ECMWF MOST PROGRESSIVE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DID STICK REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND AND TRYING TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION. THIS DOES GIVE WAY TO SLIGHT POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. GIVEN COOLER TEMPS ONSET OF POPS WOULD BE A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN MODEL DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...DROPPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR TERRITORY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS RAIN PICKS UP AND LINGERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL RUN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY

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