Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261445 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 945 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 945 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 UPDATED MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE ZONES. BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE QUITE COLD AND WE APPEAR TO BE SLOW GETTING OUT OF THE GATE. TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY UNDER FULL SUNLIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE SLOWED DUE TO DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. NO TREAT OF WINTER PRECIP AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET AND TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA WITH MAINLY A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP FROM GAINING MAX COOLING AND COULD EVEN BRING POTENTIAL OF SOME FLURRIES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE. ALSO BASED ON MODEL SOUNDING THE MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT HIGH WILL BE MOSTLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WOULD EXPECT THIS TO ONE OF THE COLDER NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW GOING WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEEN TO LOWER 20S WED NIGHT. MOVING INTO THURSDAY MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH 500MB SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNER AND HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE SPREADS NE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN TX. RIGHT NOW JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIX RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY VERSUS FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 635 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY VFR TO THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME MVFR OR LOCALLY LOWER FOG IN THE DEEPER NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT THIS MAY BE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY THE 14Z TO 15Z PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ER SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JP

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