Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241525 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 15Z SFC FORECAST ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS MAKING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BEEF UP THE POPS RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO KEPT THE IDEA OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AS THEY PASS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME ROOM TO GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BRING THEM BACK DOWN...FOLLOWED BY CAA FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING TEMPS MORE DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP WITH THE HWO TO FOLLOW TO ADD THE THUNDERS CHANCES. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA. ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE RETURN FLOW. .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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