Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 262127 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 427 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7 AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WENDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROMT THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER

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