Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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408 FXUS63 KJKL 221449 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1049 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1049 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Radar and satellite trends show convection over south central Indiana diminishing, while stronger convection further west continues moving south into far western KY. This is being handled fairly well by short range models. Convection has been increasing from central OH into southwest OH, and this will be monitored. This convection is not being handled very well in the short range models and could impact the northern part of our forecast area this afternoon. The short range models are still indicating any convection moving into our area this afternoon should be on a diminishing trend, with the north and west most likely affected. Updated NDFD hourly data based on latest observational trends but did not make any changes to precipitation chances at this time. Also did not make changes to afternoon maximum temperatures but if there is more debris cloud from convection to our north and west maximums may be a few degrees lower. UPDATE Issued at 754 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Mostly cloudy skies have overspread the area from the north, thanks to a thunderstorm complex that continues to develop more on the southwest flank. Another line of convection has fired up in northern Ohio; however, it is unclear whether this line will develop enough of a cold pool to sustain itself, as it gets further away from forcing with time. Will maintain pops as is for now, keeping the better chances in the northwest. Did beef up the cloud cover through the mid-morning hours, and consequently tempered the diurnal rise. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 The latest surface map continues to feature a weak synoptic signal, with an outflow aligned along the northern Ohio Valley, and a weak stationary front laid out from west to east from northern Wyoming to the Minnesota/Iowa border. Aloft, the ridge centered near the Oklahoma panhandle is the dominant feature. A thunderstorm complex is currently rounding the periphery of the ridge, currently impacting Illinois and Indiana. Convection has been diminishing on the eastern flank of the system, with outflow only slowly advancing to the south. Eastern Kentucky is currently enjoying another fairly cool night, with the last of the reasonable dew points in the low to mid 60s likely enjoyed for a while. Humidity will be on the rise through the short term, along with an increase in thunderstorm chances. For today, the higher resolution models have been picking up on the eventual influence from the outflow from the weakening MCS. It looks like mainly our northwestern third of the area would see the best chances of convection, with lesser coverage to the southeast, where deeper moisture will still be lacking. Highs today will make it into the lower 90s for most locations, with heat indices nearing the 100 degree mark, especially west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass. Depending on the evolution of today`s convection, at least small chances of convection may linger a bit longer into tonight, with the potential of outflow boundaries. Tonight`s lows will be closer to 70 degrees, although a few of the cooler valleys may still dip into the upper 60s in the east. On Saturday, capping in general will be a little weaker, so chance pops across the entire area looks reasonable. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees for most locations as higher humidity continues to overspread the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 The models remain in general agreement with broad upper level ridging reigning across the southern half of the CONUS gradually weakening into next week. The ridge will be buckled by short wave energy riding east across southern Canada. Eventually, the ridge will consolidate back across the desert southwest and off the Carolina coast, with broad troughing taking shape across the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week, which will allow for a period of more unsettled, but slightly cooler weather. Heat...humidity...and daily chances of thunderstorms will be the rule across eastern Kentucky through early next week. The best chance of convection still looks to arrive on Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The boundary will stall across or just south of our area into the middle of next week, keeping chances of storms in the forecast. Better chances look to return by Thursday, with another increase in forcing. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 VFR conditions will mainly prevail through the majority of the period as an upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control. Enough heating and moisture return will allow for some convection to develop during the afternoon hours today. The better coverage will be along and west of I-75, as well as along and north of I-64. Have allowed for VCTS at SME, LOZ, and at SYM through 01z, before a gradual decrease in coverage is expected through the overnight. Some patchy fog will likely develop late tonight, and have carried MVFR at LOZ and SME. Winds will remain at or below 5 kts through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.