Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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386 FXUS63 KJKL 262000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 The latest surface map features a modest ridge of high pressure aligned from the Ohio Valley down through Florida. Broad low pressure is located across Missouri and Oklahoma, with a warm front aligned to the east into central Indiana. Aloft, the flow is fairly zonal across the southern half of the CONUS. Further north, a short wave trough is pulling away from southern New England, with another deeper trough aligned from south central Canada down into California. Eastern Kentucky has enjoyed a welcomed dry day, with dew points down into the mid 50s, and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Unfortunately, this tranquility will be short-lived, as a return to stormy conditions across the area is anticipated into the Holiday Weekend. Tonight, an MCV, currently located in northern Illinois, will track east. Organized convection will track east and southeast, with most of the model guidance showing activity mainly staying just north of our area. Will allow for some slight to chance POPs after midnight; however, given a stout cap in place, will keep out the mention of thunder. Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 60s for most, although there may be a few sheltered valleys that dip into the upper 50s, given the early clearing and drier dew points in place. On Saturday, the leftover convection to our north will likely bring a surface boundary closer to the I-64 corridor. Another instability axis may also develop closer to the TN/KY border. The model guidance is erratic with timing and placement of the convection for tomorrow afternoon. As such, have stuck with mainly a persistence forecast, keeping chance POPs, peaking in the afternoon. Model soundings remain supportive of a few storms possibly approaching severe limits. Saturday night, a short wave trough will be moving into the Ohio Valley, with organized convection likely approaching the area after midnight. There is still some uncertainty on the timing and to some degree the placement of the MCS. Have continued with likely POPs across the western half of the area, with somewhat of a weakening trend to the complex towards dawn as it heads further east into our area, as is more typical with these types of systems as they move further away from the main forcing. The greatest threat with this complex will be damaging wind gusts and also isolated flash flooding given the recent wet conditions. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 The long term discussion will follow shortly. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 Expect mainly VFR conditions to hold on through the period, as high pressure gradually retreats off to our east and southeast. Scattered cumulus at 4-5k feet agl will scatter out through this evening. Clouds will then increase and lower as an area of low pressure tracks east, north of the Ohio River. An organized area of showers and thunderstorms will follow suit, with most of this convection staying to our north. Some isolated to scattered activity will be possible after midnight; and will mention VCSH at KSYM and KSJS. West southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts, will back to the south tonight, before veering back to the southwest during the day on Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.