Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160919 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 419 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY RIDING JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...LOCATED SOMEWHERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO INDIANAPOLIS. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ENEWARD...IT IS CURRENTLY PULLING A WARM FRONT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA /SHOULD BE THROUGH BY AROUND 12Z/...AND THEN WILL FOLLOW UP WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN APPROX 10Z AND 15Z. WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...WE ARE CONTINUING TO PICK UP LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT...AND ANOTHER AREA JUST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME SHOWING A WELL DEFINED PRECIP FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM. LEANED ON A MIXTURE OF RADAR TRENDS...THE HRRR AND RUC /WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION/...AND SOME LESSER INFLUENCE FROM A BLEND OF OTHER HI RES MODELS...TO COME UP WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH TODAY. AS SUCH...THE CURRENT RAIN /AND ISOLATED THUNDER/ OVER CENTRAL KY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AROUND 10 TO 11Z/...WHILE CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG MUCH OF THE NE CWA AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. DID CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE SHOWS UP AS BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH TODAY...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT SHOWERS. ONCE DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT IT TO ONCE AGAIN TRAP A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 15Z TOMORROW...LONG AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WHILE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT IT COULD BE MIXED IN WITH DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...WITH A MIXTURE OF ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...THEN LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE SOME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH SOME PLACES IN THE EAST POSSIBLY PULLING OUT SOME LOW 50S DUE TO THE WAA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY FALL FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...DYING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS BY OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SE. AS SUCH...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE LOCATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A MENTION OF THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT IN CASE ANY FURTHER ACTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL FALL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ONCE MORE...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING...SO HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE STEERING THE FORECAST TOWARDS GENERAL MODEL TRENDS SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MAINLY BE PROVIDING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST. INITIALLY...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH...AFFECTING OUR AREA VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED NOTICEABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO DIFFER QUITE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF COOLER AND THE GFS WARMER. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD BRUSH WITH THE RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER DID ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED TEMPERATURE REGIME DURING THE PERIODS OF GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 102 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 A COMBINATION WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY...WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING A SW TO NE PASS ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE REALLY PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUING TO GUST INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR...AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE FUEL ALTERNATE CATEGORY BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE SHOWERS TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE IDEA FOR DRIZZLE HANGING AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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