Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261136 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 736 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 736 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Patchy dense valley fog is affecting the commute this morning. Getting plenty reports of dense fog, but satellite and web cams suggest the worse is restricted to the immediate vicinity of our rivers and other bodies of water. Since current zones have patchy dense wording will not update the zone package ATTM. However, did update the grids for recent hourly trends. Fog should gradually lift and burn off by mid morning, or around 10 a.m.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Mid/upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS will keep a hot and humid air mass in place across eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon across our southern and southwestern zones as a very weak upper level disturbance manages to track around the south side of the mid/upper level ridge centered over the Atlantic seaboard. Sensible weather will see summer like weather with hot and humid conditions continuing across the forecast area. Weather will also be dry except for isolated showers and thunderstorms generally off the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia border Saturday afternoon. Seasonably hot afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower 90s today and Saturday. Very humid air in place will keep overnight lows up around 70 tonight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A strong upper level high will be centered just to our east at the start of the period, with a hot and fairly humid air mass in place at the surface. Diurnal heating may be enough to get some thunderstorms going in this regime, especially over higher/more rugged terrain. With very weak flow aloft and nothing in the way of meaningful features aloft to clearly focus convection, convection will be disorganized and relatively low in coverage. The upper high is expected to weaken during the long term period, and an upper trough will deepen over the northeast CONUS. Both the ECMWF and GFS show this scenario, but do not agree on how deep the trough will be. Often in this scenario we will have a back door cold front pass through. However, neither of the models shows a cold front, but only a potential for a gradual filtering of slightly drier air into our area by late in the week. One more factor in some recent model runs involves a tropical system possibly moving through the southeast CONUS, but the most recent GFS and ECMWF suggest this may be less of an issue. With such a murky picture, slight chance POPs are in order through much of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Area terminals are taking a hit this morning from patchy dense fog. CIGS and VSBYS are variable this morning, fluctuating across the entire spectrum of possible flight conditions. Felt this situation was best handled with TEMPO groups where fog is present. Do expect fog to lift and dissipate by 10 a.m. with all sites climbing into VFR ranges by mid morning. Weather looks very similar for tonight, so persistence should give model guidance a run for its money. Decided to mirror timing for the redevelopment of fog tonight. However, being so far out in time and basically within the planning period, went with an average VSBY based on this morning`s hourly trends. Otherwise expect winds will be generally light and variable through the period.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...RAY

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