Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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099 FXUS63 KJKL 012025 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 325 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016 As of mid afternoon, a closed upper low was over eastern Ontario and western Quebec with a general broad trough over much of the CONUS and North America. At the sfc, high pressure was centered over the lower MS Valley with ridging extending into the OH and TN Valleys. Locally, the stratus and stratus has lifted into cu and has been mixing out from the south and west. This evening through Friday, the upper level low will move into the St Lawrence Valley and Maritimes with a couple of weak disturbances rotating around it across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. One of these may lead to an increase in low and mid clouds tonight, with some mid level height rises to follow on Friday. At the sfc, high pressure will continue building into the area. Mid level height rises should continue into Friday night with a ridge of sfc high pressure in place. Although bands of clouds will move through the area from time to time, particularly later tonight and again Saturday night, dry weather is anticipated through the period. 850 mb temperatures are progged to be 0C or lower for most of the period and this combined with some clouds will lead to below normal temperatures through Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016 The extended period will feature three separate precipitation events. The first is forecast to occur late Saturday night through Sunday night. Two weather systems will partially phase together and affect our area. One will be a northern stream system that is progged to move across the norther CONUS and across the Great Lakes and New England regions. The second system will be a weaker southern stream system that looks to move along the Gulf Coast. The result will be scattered rain to at times numerous rain showers across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures may be even be cold enough late Saturday into early Sunday morning to allow some snow to mix with the rain across our area. The ground will still be far too warm for any snow accumulations to occur. A second weather system is progged to bring another extended round of rain to the area Monday through Tuesday. This air mass with this second weather system should be warm enough to keep all precipitation in liquid form. This second trough of low pressure should bring a good wetting rain to the area. After This trough departs to our east, another trough of low pressure aloft is forecast to move in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday. This trough has much more uncertainty associated with it since it is entering the picture near the end of the forecast period. There is a small chance of this system also having some mixed precipitation late Wednesday into early Thursday, but will hold off on introducing any wintry precip for now due to model uncertainty. Temperatures for most of the period look to be below normal, with several days having highs in the 40s, as a series of cold air masses move across the region. Nightly lows will be generally in the 30s and 40s. The exception will be the middle of the week, as southerly flow increases some ahead of an approaching trough. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could top out in the 50s, and maybe even top 60, as winds become persistent out of the south and southwest on both of those days.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016 A stratus and stratocu deck has lifted into a cu deck across much of the area, though it is scattering out from the south and west. Low level moisture is expected to remain and as an upper level disturbance rotates through the OH Valley, a VFR deck may return later tonight into early on Friday. Thus, VFR should prevail through the period. West/southwest winds near 10 kts are expected to start the period, with gusts as high as 15-20 kt. However, these winds will diminish by the 21Z to 0Z period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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