Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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713 FXUS63 KJKL 201734 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 134 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Temperatures are off to a slightly faster rise than our database showed and with similar 850 mb temps progged today compared to yesterday, expect most locations to reach similar highs to what were observed yesterday. The biggest concern is with mid level debris clouds moving toward the area from the west at this time. These are breaking up some as they approach however and should not affect temps much, if at all. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Upper level clouds from the remnants of the MCS have been streaming over the southwest portion of the forecast area. These clouds, along with drier air, have been enough to keep the fog at bay across the western half of the area. Intermittent reports of dense fog were noted in the far eastern locations but expect this to lift around 12Z. Other than the morning fog, the weather remains quiet this morning. Refreshed the hourly grids and sent updated to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Drier air continues to filter into the region early this morning as a frontal boundary washes out to our south. This will allow dew points to lower into the mid and upper 60s, making things slightly more comfortable. However, we won`t see much change in daily temperatures as afternoon highs are expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s both days. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler, in the mid and upper 60s, before returning to the 70s by the end of the work week. The weather will remain dry as high pressure stays in control of eastern Kentucky. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 The driver for the long term forecast will be the continual building of a persistent upper level ridge into the Ohio Valley, enabling the full effects of summer to be felt across the region. This trend of hot, humid weather will continue throughout the weekend as heat indices approach and at times supersede the 100 degree threshold Friday through Sunday. Although current model soundings indicate ample instability throughout the weekend, a strong cap in conjunction with lack of upper level support and deep layer moisture will preclude thunderstorm development Saturday. That being said, a brief reprieve from the heat may be possible Sunday afternoon as moisture advects into the area ahead of a shortwave dipping through the Great Lakes as the cap weakens ever so slightly, allowing for the development of a diurnally driven thunderstorm or two. Towards the beginning of the next week, the persistent ridge will slowly retreat to the southwest supporting a more zonal flow over the northern half of the CONUS. As previously mentioned, a shortwave confined to this zonal regime will develop and intensify over the Great Lakes, supporting a surface low over Michigan tracking along the US-Canada border. The associated cold front is progged to move through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours Monday evening, providing the region with its best chance of showers and thunderstorms in the long term as it intrudes on instabilities of around 1500 J/kg. Although a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, abysmal deep layer shear should inhibit severe potential. Following this front, weak cold air advection should provide for a cooling down across the region. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 VFR conditions can be expected throughout the forecast period with high pressure in place. Patchy valley fog will develop tonight. However, with drier air in place, there should be less coverage than there was this morning so will keep it out of the TAFS at this time. Winds will be light from the north/northeast.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GOUDEAU/GEOGERIAN AVIATION...ABE

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