Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201100 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 700 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 IR SAT SHOWING SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH HAS ALLOWED MORE MIXING OVERNIGHT...SO NOT SEEING MUCH OF THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. ALSO A FEW MAINLY RIVER VALLEY SPOTS ARE SEEING SOME FOG THIS MORNING AND IS EVIDENT ON A COUPLE OF AREA WEBCAMS/OBS...BUT THIS WAS WANED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BY THE MIXING. DID KEEP THE PATCHY FOG GIVEN AREA WEBCAMS/OBS AND UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE HAS FLATTENED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT USHERED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STAY FAIRLY MIXED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH...SO SEEING A MORE SUBTLE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THIS MORNING. DID OPT KEEP MENTION OF VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MIXING MOST PLACES WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY ISSUES THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK THERE WAY INTO THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY. ALL EYES THEN TURN TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF ISSUES TO MENTION IS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOES WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EAST...HOWEVER THAT SAID MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE POP CHANCES WITH GFS BEING THE WEAKEST. GIVEN THIS TREND DID COME UP SOME WITH REGARDS TO POPS BUT STAYED IN THE HIGH RANGE OF CHANCE. ALSO DID KEEP ALL ACTIVITY AS JUST RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE TN BORDER. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES BUT WOULD THINK WE WOULD ONLY BE LOOKING AT ISOLATED CHANCES IF THAT. OTHERWISE DID BUMP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS DOWN FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE TREND FROM THE THE GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER/GENERAL NW FLOW IN PLACE. THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEARING 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR 75 AT JKL AND 77 AT LOZ. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MORNING LOWS DUE TO LOW DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE AS IT ARRIVES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL SLIP AWAY OFF THE EAST COAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS EARLY IN THE WEEK...AN OVERALL INCREASE IN POPS IS ALSO FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN BY TUESDAY AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH HIGHER POPS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KY. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FEATURES CAN BE DISCERNED IN THE FLOW ALOFT...AND IT IS QUITE A DISTANCE OUT IN TIME...SO HAVE USED A DIURNAL TREND FOR PRECIP WITH PEAK POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 IR/WV SAT INDICATING A SLIGHT RETURN IN MOISTURE WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. NO AFFECTS ON TAFS WITH SITES COMING IN AT VFR THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...THE TAF SITES ALL REMAIN VFR AND NO FOG. THESE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO DID INTRODUCE VCSH LATER TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW AM KEEPING SITES VFR...HOWEVER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ

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