Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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261 FXUS63 KJKL 181058 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 658 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 Made some minor adjustments to the temps based on the current observations. Also made some adjusted the diurnal curve throughout the morning to better show the warming transition from this mornings lows. Also loaded in the latest observations for dew points and winds. Seeing a few observations of fog across the region, but nothing dense, so will kept with patchy fog mention over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, light winds and clear conditions are holding strong. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 356 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 As a strong upper level ridge continues to expand eastward into western and Central Kentucky today, a shortwave will transition into a closed low over the Carolinas. This closed low will slowly make a shift eastward toward the Atlantic coast through the short term period as heights continue to rise across Kentucky. At the surface, a dying stationary boundary will remain draped across the northern extent of the state, near the Ohio River. This is expected to fizzle out completely through the day today. High pressure will then be found across the remainder of the state. Temperatures are expected to continue their above-normal trend in response to this building ridge. Most locations could brush 90 degrees for highs today, with similar temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 expected for Wednesday afternoon as well. Conditions should also remain mostly clear and dry throughout the short term. These clear conditions will once again prompt some good ridge/valley temp differences overnight. Fog will also be present in the valleys, however with continued lack of moisture over the last few days, the extent and severity of this fog will continue to diminish, so only mentioned patchy wording. The only caveat to this benign pattern will be the potential for an isolated thunderstorm along the VA border during the afternoon today. Deeper southerly flow across central the Appalachians and points eastward interacts with the upper level energy in place, with convection potentially expanding across the high terrain and into portions of eastern KY. By Wednesday, this system will have pushed just enough eastward to alleviate any further chances across east KY. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 436 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 We will initially be on the periphery of a strong mid/upper level ridge over the south central CONUS, with surface high pressure over our area. This will likely keep our weather dry at least through Thursday. The NAM is showing some precip making it as far south and west as our area during this time, but is not supported by the operational GFS or ECMWF. There are a small number of GFS ensemble members with some light precip. While the POP is not zero, a value below the 20% threshold for inclusion of precip in the forecast seems the most appropriate. Ridging at the surface and aloft should break down Friday through the weekend. In the upper levels, this will allow for slight cooling and a modest increase in wind as the westerlies drop further south. At the surface, increased flow will help to bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area. The combined result will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest Sunday and Monday, and this is when the highest POP will be carried (in chance category). Conditions will be uncomfortably hot and humid during the period. The highest temperatures are expected on Friday, before the increase in clouds and precip starts to hold temperatures down. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period, as high pressure remains in control. Some MVFR to IFR fog may be present in the deeper river valleys through 13z. There is still a potential that, like yesterday, fog could propagate into SME as it lifts this morning, so kept a tempo MVFR group in through 14Z. Otherwise, some diurnally driven cumulus ranging from 4-5k feet agl will be seen across the area during the afternoon, dissipating in the evening. Winds will remain light and variable. Calm and clear conditions tonight will once again promote fog development in the deeper valleys to round out the TAF period, but with continued dry conditions in place, moisture will be more limited and impacts should continue to be less than nights before. Don`t expect this fog to impact TAF sites.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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