Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS63 KJKL 180523
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
123 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Issued at 101 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016
IR SAT showing a few high clouds streaming across portions of
eastern KY this hour. The surface analysis shows high pressure off
to our east and we are beginning to see the gradient setup.
Overall mild night across the region particularly on the ridges,
and no surprise the typical 10 to 15 degree ridge/valley split has
setup. These aforementioned elements will set the stage for a
warm and breezy day today. Overall grid are in great shape with
only a few minor edits for the latest obs and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 1030 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
Forecast remains on track tonight with lows expected to be a few
degrees higher than this morning. Increasing winds should help the
most locations stay mixed overnight, limiting the fog potential.
So have reduced fog to just patchy in the deepest valleys.
Otherwise, freshened up the hourly temps to reflect most recent
obs and sent updates to NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
Quick update to freshen up the hourly temps. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
High pressure centered off the coast of the mid Atlantic states
will provide a continuation of mild and dry weather through
Tuesday night. Lows tonight will not be too far off from last
nights temperatures, but could be just a degree or two warmer.
Highs on Tuesday will ease upwards likely a few degrees above
highs today. By tomorrow night, cloud cover issues start to come
into play, as clouds may start to drift into the area ahead of an
approaching cold front. Thus, will go a bit milder on lows.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
The ridge of high pressure that has been bringing well above normal
temperatures and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past couple of
days will finally begin to break down and move off to our east
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The reason for this will be the
approach of a strong cold front, that will be moving eastward out of
the Great Plains. Rain showers are expected to moving into our
northwestern counties late Wednesday afternoon, out ahead of the
front. The rain should become more widespread Wednesday night into
early Thursday, as the front begins making a big push to the east.
Based on the latest model guidance, the front should be moving
across eastern Kentucky Thursday afternoon and evening. As it does
so, the rain showers will become numerous, and we may even see a few
thunderstorms fire up along the front, as cold air aloft creates
some instability in the low levels. The front is forecast to only
slowly exit the area, with scattered to numerous rain showers
expected to last through around dawn on Friday. The front should be
out of our area by early Friday morning, with a few rain showers
perhaps lingering behind the boundary due to moist upslope flow. The
rain will likely be slow to exit the area, as a large scale trough
aloft if forecast to push across the eastern half of the CONUS Friday
and Friday night. The last rain showers should be exiting the area
by very early Saturday morning. The weekend overall is expected to
be dry with below normal temperatures, as the air mass behind the
departed cold front is going to be quite cool.
In fact, highs on Friday and Saturday will be hard pressed to reach
60 degrees for most locations. Low temperatures Friday night and
Saturday night are still expected to fall into the lower 40s around
the area. Some of our deeper and most sheltered valleys may even see
upper 30s. The question now becomes, regarding low temps over the
weekend, is how much clearing will take place? If we see more
clearing than we are currently expecting, more widespread minimum
readings in the 30s may be experienced, especially Saturday night.
For now will continue with only minimal low readings in the upper
30s for a few spots Saturday night. The first couple of days of the
extended should continue to see well above normal temperatures, with
highs on Wednesday forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, and ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Nightly lows are expected
to range from the lower 60s Wednesday night to around 50 Thursday
-- Changed Discussion --(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016
VFR will be the story through the TAF period. The biggest aviation
concern will be the potential for LLWS through dawn, as a SW LLJ
creeps into the region from west to east. Then increasing gradient
and mixing through the day will lead to gusty SW winds area wide
through the late morning into the early evening hours. Wind gust
of 20 to 25 knots are not out of the question especially across
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. While CIGS will remain
VFR there is the potential for diurnally driven CU at around 5
KFT and added that thought through the afternoon. The CU and gusty
winds will dissipate by the early evening hours.
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