Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 061835 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH SUNSHINE IN FULL FORCE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK SYSTEMS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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