Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171943 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 343 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 343 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 Available shortly... .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 The period will begin with the upper level trough axis swinging across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. After this heights rise and pattern flattens through Tuesday before another trough digs into the eastern US to round out the period. The models are in decent overall agreement upper level wise through the long term period. This initial trough will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to the far north Saturday afternoon. Then a break will come for late Saturday into early Monday. There remains some question on what will develop for Monday and right now there is only a small chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Mountain Parkway in the afternoon. However, this is really only showing in one model solution and therefore confidence remains low. Then the next trough will approach by Tuesday and bring best chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough will swing east and push a cold front through the region, with chances lessening through the day on Thursday. That said, there is some disagreement on how much the front pushes through in the guidance and this could lead to changes in the timing and coverage on Thursday. Temperature through the period will remain near to above average for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 Scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing over the eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area at the start of the period. Very localized IFR conditions were likely present in the heavier rain. Elsewhere, conditions were VFR. The current precip will likely slowly exit to the east late this afternoon and early evening. However, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight, especially in the northern part of the area between about 03z and 09z. IFR conditions due largely to low ceilings are then expected to develop for most locations overnight and persist into Friday morning. VFR should return toward the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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