Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030657 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...KAS

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