Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011840 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 140 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 140 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS MAINLY TO LOWER TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE AREA UNDER THICK MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...TWEAKED THE POP AND WX GRIDS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM THIS NORTH OF KENTUCKY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WITH THE WARM FRONT FELL AS VIRGA...BUT THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AS IT PASSED. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES VARY FROM UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. DEWPOINTS SHOW EVEN GREATER DIFFERENCES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THOUGH INCREASING WINDS ARE NOW STARTING TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE I39 AND DVK OBS. NEXT UP WILL BE THE CORE OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. THIS WILL MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURATE THE AIR AS IT MOVES IN SHORTLY WEST TO EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE SHOULD ALL FALL AS RAIN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN SHIELD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP WILL BE ISSUED CLOSER TO NOON TO REMOVE THE MORNING/AFTERNOON WORDING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO WARM THE LOWER LEVELS AND NOW HAVE SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT SO HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/S PRECIP ARRIVAL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND WHILE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE LESSENED INTO THE DAWN HOURS...NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ANY OB SITE IN KY SO FAR. IN FACT...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRESENT OUT WEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z FEATURE SOME VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST. DESPITE WEAK RETURNS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NO PRECIP WILL LIKELY REAL THE SURFACE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 DEGREES AND GREATER IN SOME AREAS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WOULD EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL THEN EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH PWATS IN THE 0.70 TO 0.80 RANGE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WITH COLDER BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...EARLIER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LEAVES QUITE QUICKLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT SOME AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH OMEGA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN TAKES OVER ON MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HINT AT A SECOND TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH SOME 30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDING WILL MAKE FOR SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS A SQUALL OR TWO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...FOR SNOW TOTALS...HAVE GONE WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT BORDER VIRGINIA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS MENTION IN THE HWO NOT ONLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT ALSO THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...SO DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOME BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THREATEN THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...INITIALLY AS RAIN...AND THEN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST AND SLOWER. THIS HAS IN GENERAL BROKEN WITH CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE OF CHILLY MORNINGS WITH TEENS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS MODERATE RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A LOWERING OF THE VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL...IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z WITH THE MODERATE RAINS MOVING THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER VIS BEING THE MAIN AVN CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL START SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE WEST PREDAWN. GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON THROUGH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL WILL KEEP THE VIS RATHER LOW THROUGH MID MORNING IN MOST PLACES. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING BY MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GREIF

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