Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240603 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Watching a mesoscale convective complex push into northern Indiana with plenty of elevated instability and moisture to work with downstream, assuming it can make a turn south. Valley fog will remain in the offing, although should be less robust than that last night/yesterday morning given less rainfall Saturday and approaching cirrus ahead of aforementioned MCC. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Isolated convection this afternoon has been confined to near the TN border apparently in association with remnant boundary from yesterday`s convection. Also isolated convection being noted in association with higher terrain near the VA border. With steering flow very weak any convection this evening will be very slow moving, so will once again need to monitor for locally heavy rain. Current indications are convection should diminish fairly quickly after sunset. For Sunday, it looks like mean layer moisture may be a little less than today and 850 mb temperatures slightly warmer, thus allowing for slightly higher maximum temperatures. Forecast for Sunday is mostly in the lower 90s with heat indices still around 100. Thus still not reaching heat advisory criteria for our area. Will still highlight the heat index values in the HWO. Any convection on Sunday should have even less coverage than today, but an isolated thunderstorm will still be possible. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Morning runs are showing quite good agreement and continuity with mid/upper level features. The operation gfs/ecmwf solutions do diverge somewhat beyond Thursday but overall trends are consistent. Broad, roughly zonal flow gradually amplifies with time across the CONUS resulting in ridging over the west coast and across the east Atlantic. A mean trough takes shape over the Upper Mid-West and Great Lake Region. Our area will lie on the southern periphery of an active northern stream, with a few weak disturbances and a couple more significant short waves eventually digging out a trough across the eastern CONUS. Consequently, sensible weather will include at least scattered showers and thunderstorms through the bulk of the forecast window. The best chance of rainfall will come early next week as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late Monday. This boundary becomes quasi-stationary and will act as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity through Wednesday. What`s left of the boundary lifts northward by early Thursday. Additional weak disturbances drop into the region from the northwest ahead of a more significant trough taking aim for our area by the following weekend. The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for this time of the year, generally in lower to mid 80s. But with dew points hovering around the 70 degree mark, our weather will remain quite muggy. Likewise overnight lows will be warm, running a little above normals in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Current VFR conditions expected to mainly dominate through the period, with the best chance of sub-VFR conditions likely residing at SME nearer a local water source. May very well see similar conditions this morning around 10-12Z at JKL as valley fog mixes up the ridge. Any patchy fog will mix out by early-mid morning with a few cumulus developing by late morning into the afternoon as an overall slightly drier and more stable airmass takes hold today. Will have to monitor approaching mesoscale convective system across northern Indiana with plenty of moisture/elevated instability available downstream. Not expecting high enough coverage to include mention of thunder at any site. Winds will remain light through the period, generally averaging less than 5 knots from the south/southeast early to southwest this afternoon. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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