Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221228 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 728 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 728 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 A line of moderate to heavy showers is working its way east this morning. The more intense cores have been putting down a half inch of rainfall in less than 30 minutes. Northwestern Fleming County has seen more sustained rainfall overnight, and have included a Flood Warning for this area through the mid-morning. Once these showers move out this morning, activity will be more spotty this afternoon and into tonight. Have freshened up the POP and temperature trends through the rest of this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 333 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 The latest surface map features a stationary frontal boundary aligned from central Virginia southwest to the Tennessee/Kentucky border and then into Mississippi and Louisiana. Aloft, an amplified pattern remains in place, with an unseasonably strong ridge across the western Atlantic, and troughing across the West. This is allowing for deep southwest flow to stream in across the Mississippi Valley. Showers have been ongoing across the western two thirds of Kentucky during the overnight hours, with locations mainly along and north of I-64 seeing the more sustained precipitation over the past few hours. Temperatures reflect the stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of the area, with mid to upper 40s being reported north of I-64, and lower 60s noted near the Tennessee border to the south. Expect showers to gradually shift southeast with time through this morning, as a surface wave makes it way northeast along the boundary, along with a passing short wave trough traversing the Ohio Valley aloft, helping to lend some upper level support. The better rainfall totals will be favored across the Bluegrass, with another half inch or so on top of what falls through 12z this morning. This should not be enough to cause much in the way of problems besides some full ditches and moderate response on creeks and streams. A relative lull in the activity looks to occur tonight, before another surface wave tracks along the boundary into Friday. Again, higher POPs and QPF will be favored to our northwest; however, the forcing will not be as strong, so QPF does not look to be excessive. As such, will continue to roll with the ESF, and look towards this weekend for the potentially excessive rainfall. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the north, to around 70 in the far south. On Friday, readings will be back towards record territory once again, with mid to upper 70s expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 333 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 The first part of the extended will feature multiple rounds of rainfall, which could be heavy at times, especially Saturday night into Sunday. We may even see a few thunderstorms across the area Saturday and Saturday night, as a cold front moves through the region. The rain will last through Sunday morning, before tapering off and exiting the area Sunday afternoon and evening. After a period of dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday night, another round of rain will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, as an area of low pressure moves across the region. Temperatures during the period will be cooler than what we`ve seen the past few days, but should still be above normal each day and night. The warmest days will be Saturday and Sunday, when day time highs are forecast to max out from the upper 60s to lower 70s and the low to mid 60s respectively. The coolest days should be Tuesday and Wednesday, when highs should top out from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Nightly lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s Friday night to the mid to upper 30s Monday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 728 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 IFR/LIFR ceilings and showers will linger across most locations through 15z. The areal coverage of the showers will become more scattered in nature through the rest of the day, with ceilings eventually improving to VFR by late this evening. Low level wind shear will threaten through the mid-morning hours, before subsiding. Variable surface winds averaging around 5 kts will eventually veer around to the southeast and south by the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.