-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 200559 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
159 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FEW SHOWERS IN ERN TENN BUT THEY ARE STAYING THERE AS THE FRONT THAT
THEY ARE FORMING ON HAS BECOME STATIONARY DOWN THERE. IN FACT WE ARE
HARD PRESSED TO EVEN FIND A COUPLE WISPS OF CIRRUS OVER ERN KY. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A DEG ABOVE FCST WITH DWPTS ON TRACK. FEEL THE
TEMPS WILL CATCH UP TO FCST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN THE FALL
SHOULD SLOW DOWN TO MATCH THE FCST. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST OBS BUT THE ZONES HAVE NOT CHANGED ENUF TO WARRANT NEW ISSUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

SKY IS CLEARING QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. DWPTS ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS THE SAME AS THE EXPECTED LOWS. COLD
POOLING IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RH IN THE VALLEYS WITH
A THERMAL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR ON THE RIDGES. VALLEY FOG EXPECTED
TOWARDS DAWN. ALL THIS HANDLED WELL IN TE ZONE FCST. UPDATED GRIDS TO
INPUT LATEST OBS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED INTO KY ON TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR THE TN BORDER AND IS CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTH. TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER ONTARIO. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH GENERAL
RIDGING  ALSO EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

HEIGHT RISES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME SOME WEAK TROUGHING OR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
BOUNDARY WILL DROP FURTHER INTO THE TN VALLEY AND BECOME ILL DEFINED
AND WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSOLVE. AFTER SOME DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN
AROUND THE SFC HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SFC DEW POINT SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY ON THU. WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO BE TO OUR WEST ON FRI...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...QUITE A BIT OF CU SHOULD DEVELOP AND SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS DURING
PEAK HEATING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE ON FRI
EVENING AND WE OPTED TO EXTEND THIS BACK INTO FRI AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TN AND VA BORDERS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT ON THU...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

EACH NIGHT VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP THOUGH IT MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES MORE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LIFT UP
TO MID-SLOPE AND SOME RIDGETOP LOCATIONS BY DAWN ON THU. WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD
BE A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT THAT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
EARLIER THAN BECOME SMALLER AS THE INVERSION LIFTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THU NIGHT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO START THE
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING AND BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IN PLACE THERE IS LITTLE
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT MODELS ARE HINTING THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WE ARE
IN A POSITION ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THUS BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE AREA. THE STANDARD
BLENDED LOAD SHOWED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR FOG TO CONTEND WITH AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z...WITH IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AROUND THE
4K FOOT AGL LEVEL. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BORDERING
TN/VA AS WELL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN