Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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426 FXUS63 KJKL 281806 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 206 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 158 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 Forecast is in good condition early this afternoon. Only made a couple minor tweaks to make sure the temps, dew points, and winds were on track with the current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 932 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 Some high clouds are starting to move into the region late this morning, however these should pose little concern throughout the day. Otherwise forecast remains quite benign through today. Loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds to make sure the near term forecast was on track with current conditions. These updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new zone package was sent out to remove morning fog wording. UPDATE Issued at 701 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 The forecast is on track so far this morning. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids a couple of times to establish new trends. Aside from that, no other changes to the forecast were necessary.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for the residents of eastern Kentucky today and tomorrow, as a ridge of high pressure settles over the region. High temperatures will return to closer to normal values today and tomorrow, with max readings in the low to mid 80s expected. Tonights lows will also be warmer, with ridgetop temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 60s, while the surrounding valleys bottom out in the upper 50s. Winds will be generally light and variable with mostly clear skies also on tap across the area through tomorrow morning. Clouds will be on the increase Thursday afternoon, as an area of low pressure passes by to the south of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms may evening across the Tennessee border into our southwestern counties Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 424 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast coast will be moving around the western side of surface high pressure over the Atlantic, resulting in rising dew points in our area at the start of the period. There should be little in the way of features on the map locally at the start of the period, and convective precip is expected to be mainly diurnal in nature, with very little left by 00Z on Thursday evening. Redevelopment is expected with destabilization on Friday, but still with very limited coverage due to lack of features. A shortwave trough rotating around a general trough over the north central CONUS will bring falling geopotential heights and temporarily nudge the upper level westerlies further south, supporting a weakening cold front to move into our area on Saturday. This will bring the highest POP of the extended forecast period. The upper trough lifts out to the northeast on Sunday and some limited drying occurs as the cold front washes out with passage. Forecast soundings suggest this will be enough to knock out convective precip for a couple of days. However, with little change in air mass and more sunshine, temperatures should actually climb Sunday and Monday. Another upper level trough moves in from the northwest on Monday night and Tuesday, and low level moisture creeps higher. This supports at least a mention of thunderstorms once again. However, the highest POP will remain to our northwest. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through out the period at all five TAF sites. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap throughout the remainder of today. Valley fog may once again be possible overnight, especially near bodies of water and in our deepest and most sheltered valleys, but should remain suppressed enough to not affect the TAF sites. Cloud cover will be on the increase late tonight and into the day tomorrow as an area of low pressure moves by just to our south, but VFR conditions should still prevail. Can`t rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms in southern KY, possibly affecting KSME and KLOZ, but confidence was too low to include mention in TAFs at this time.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.