Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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187 FXUS63 KJKL 260257 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 957 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1000 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 Updated the grids in input the latest observations. Just about all cloud cover has cleared out with the exception of the far north and northeast. The rest of the forecast remains on track. The grids have been updated and sent to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 Updated the forecast to adjust for some trends heading through this evening and into tonight. The cloud cover across the area is finally beginning to clear out with the exception of the far north where some broken layers are gonna hang around a bit longer. Overall, trends suggest the area will clear out within the next few hours, especially with the dry air moving into the area. This also means that with the upper teen dew points, some of the valley areas have the potential to drop into the lower 20s tonight if not a few teens. The one saving grace here is that most places will at least have a light wind. Also adjust the valleys and ridges for a slight ridge to valley difference. With the changes made, a new ZFP was sent out.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid 20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday. Highs tomorrow should rise to around 50 degrees at most locations. Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s by Monday morning, which will be quite a bit warmer than tonights expected lows. A mix of rain and snow showers is then expected to move into the area from the west late tonight into early Monday morning, as moisture associated with our next weather system begins to interact with the cold air mass that will still be in place. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 406 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 An unsettled pattern will be in place through much of the upcoming week as cyclonic flow across central and eastern Canada sends periodic impulses of energy into the U.S. The first of these will be in the form of a dampening shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest and Ohio Valley early Monday. Moisture advection will have a difficult time returning as far north as Kentucky given the recent subsidence and dry air in place during the latter half of the weekend, as evidenced by lingering low level dry air in forecast sounding profiles along with southeast downslope surface winds. Much better rain chances will materialize early Tuesday as a warm front lifts north east of a surface low ejecting into the central Plains and Midwest, downstream of an upper trough traversing the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon, promoting increasing low level instability and thus some thunderstorm activity. Height falls will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as deep layer shear increases to on the order of 60-70 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. Instability may prove to be a limiting factor in storm intensity/coverage, given the exact timing of the front and ongoing cold pool strength/depth following Tuesday`s precipitation. Nonetheless, a double-barrel surface low may further foster additional lift for ascent. A sharp cooldown will ensue late Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures very likely falling below normal for late week. A few snowflakes may fly into early Thursday and again early Friday as a potential clipper system grazes the Great Lakes, but currently not expecting any impactful accumulation. A warming and drying trend look to occur into next weekend at this point as backing flow aloft takes shape across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 Current conditions at the TAF sites feature winds becoming light and skies beginning to clear out. a very dry air mass and winds remaining light will mean that while a few very localized areas may see some fog tonight, most locations will not see any develop despite the soaking rains no more than 24 hours ago. Winds will decouple and become light within the next couple hours. Skies will be mainly clear with the exception of some mid and upper level layers moving in tomorrow afternoon. Overall, a VFR forecast is on tap. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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