Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050307 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH IN REALITY THE POP IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO BE ON AN OVERALL DECLINE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5 DEGREE MARK. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THEY COULD BRING VERY LOCALIZED IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL VALLEY FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL SPREAD AND GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LEAVE VFR. THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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