Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012343 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 743 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN. THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT BUT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS DAWN ON FRIDAY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER LATE IN THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY THIS WILL LIKELY JUST BE SHOWERS AS AXIS OF BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOG FREE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED... AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE A SURGE OF VERY COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS DRAMATICALLY. 8H TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST HIGH IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY BEING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON SKY CONDITION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN SOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED NEAR DAWN AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT JKL. THE VLIFR DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT. THE VLIFR VALLEY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ANY HELICOPTERS TRYING TO LAND AT VALLEY HELIPADS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JJ

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