Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301957 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 PRETTY AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND PRECIP COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT PULL OFF TO THE EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2 INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL STAY ON PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AS THE MODELS STAYED IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN FORMING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOG SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...AR

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