Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050533 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM. INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EXPAND. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF JACKSON AND HAZARD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVEN IMPACT AREAS A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH SOME CLEARING COMING OVER THE AREA. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED 36...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH JUST ABOUT TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. CERTAINLY A CHILLY MORNING OUT THERE. THIS COLD START...COMBINED WITH THE DAMP AND CLOUDY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING DAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR SOME OF THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND 40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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