Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191523 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1023 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1023 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 A few light showers (mixed with snow in the far southeast high elevations) are still ongoing across portions of eastern Kentucky but have been on a dissipating trends over the last hour or two. Will let ongoing pops ride as they show this dissipating trend too, but will continue to monitor and update as necessary if pops drop off faster or slower than forecast. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecasts for temps and winds were on track with current conditions. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Will send out a new forecast package to remove early morning wording. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 Updated the grids to mainly adjust the PoP and Wx ones through the next few hours. Snow likely continues on top of Black Mountain and at least mixing in on the ridges above 2500 feet. The bulk of the measurable pcpn will depart by 10 am with just some lingering flurries or sprinkles remaining behind into the early afternoon. Also, added in the latest obs and trends from the T/Td grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 315 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 07z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into eastern Kentucky in the wake of a strong weather system now moving into northern New England with its cold front approaching the East Coast. The pressure gradient between these main features is relaxing and as such the winds are subsiding. Accordingly, will allow the wind advisory to expire at 4 am as currently outlined in the NPW and headlines. Cold air advection and upslope flow on brisk northwest will continue through the rest of the night and into Sunday. Temperatures are dropping across Kentucky behind the cold front with mid and upper 30s noted west and lower 40s in the east. The exception to this is the higher terrain along the Virginia border where readings are falling through the 30s. In fact, Black Mountain is reporting 32 degrees and certainly snowing as light pcpn is moving through. Would not be surprised to see up to an inch of wet snow on its peak. Otherwise, any mix with or change to snow will not occur until closer to dawn most places with only locations above 2500 feet see a potential of a light coating. Sprinkles will be the rule for most of the night over mainly just the eastern two thirds of the area and into Sunday morning with some flurries possible on the ridges from dawn through midday. The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the region in the wake of the main, large trough that has now shifted east into New England. A secondary, weaker wave will push east through the area today with its own batch of mid level energy. Following this latter wave, heights will start to rebound over the area in benign northwest flow devoid of any minor waves tonight into Monday, By Monday evening the pattern will flatten out over Kentucky and start to take on a southwest cant as some weak energy moves into the state. Given the excellent model agreement have favored a model blend along with a lean toward the high resolution, near term models like the HRRR and NAM12 for forecast details. Sensible weather will feature light showers and sprinkles mixes on the ridges with snow or flurries. These will diminish with time through noon. Look for the area to dry out and pcpn to come to an end by afternoon. All this will take place under cloudy conditions and continued CAA on west to northwest winds keeping temperatures from rebounding off of morning lows, too much. Look for the clouds to start to break up tonight from southwest to northeast with a potential for some radiational cooling adding to the mix for valley spots. Sunshine will return in earnest for Monday helping to send temperatures up toward 50 degrees for highs. Again used the CONSShort and Shortblend as the starting point for all the grids through the short term. Did end up making some fine tune adjustments to lows tonight based on terrain. Also, lowered temps a notch for highs today given the clouds, winds, and light pcpn around. Did nudge PoPs up a bit today based on our more upslope favorable areas of the higher terrain in the east. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 339 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 A very quiet stretch of weather is set to arrive this week, allowing for good travel conditions ahead of the holiday weekend. A moisture starved cold front will cross the area Tuesday evening, but outside of producing a reinforcing shot of cooler weather, not anticipating much impact from this front. As high pressure builds in for Wednesday through Friday, we should see a continuation of quiet weather conditions. We could see another nice warmup up Friday into early Saturday as southwest flow develops ahead of a cold front pushing towards the region. This cold front will then bring another big cool down to end the holiday weekend Saturday night into Sunday. At this time, models do not show much moisture associated with this cold front, so will continue to hold onto a dry forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 715 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 The main concern for aviation this cycle will be the MVFR cigs still affecting the area into the early afternoon hours before breaking up from southwest to northeast. Winds will remain from the northwest at around 10 to 15 kts through the day before diminishing this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.