Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 292000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH A MERIDIONAL RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. IN FACT...A RATHER COOL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE PATTERN. THIS SOLUTION IS SHARED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE MCS TYPE SET UP WITH THE EXTENDED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THE REMNANTS OF SOME CONVECTION DIMINISHING BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FEATURE SEEMS MORE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO KY...ESPECIALLY WITH A SEEMINGLY STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS KY. THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE AS WELL AS THE PATTERN...THE GFS SOUNDING ARE SHOWING LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE ORGANIZATION WITH THESE FEATURE SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST. PERHAPS THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INABILITY CLEAR OUT THE AREA DUE TO SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE EURO IN AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...THIS SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY CASE AND HENCE THE MARGINAL MENTION IN THE DAY 3 BY SPC AND THIS MIGHT EVEN PERHAPS BE OVERDONE. HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE INSTABILITY SEEMS A BIT BETTER AND ORGANIZATION WOULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY AND THIS IS SUGGESTED IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL. FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...BUT ONCE AGAIN LACKING A BIT IN INSTABILITY SO THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZATION BEING TIED TO THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND EURO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE PATTERN AND THE EURO BECOMING MORE ZONAL OR AT LEAST A MORE FLATTENED FLOW. DUE TO THIS AND BEING THE LAST 2 DAYS IN THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAN MORE TO A COMPROMISE OF THE SUPER BLEND AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE RESULT OF THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE DIURNAL DOMINATED TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAKENING OR FLATTENING PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY THE EURO...AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE GENERALLY DISSIPATING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING. PATCHY FOG WILL SET IN LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER CLEARING OUT MAY BE PROBLEMATIC...SO AM ONLY CARRYING MVFR FOR NOW. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 12Z...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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