Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011544 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1144 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING POPS THROUGH NOON. ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPENDING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON SEEM LIKELY WITH THE DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT OUT A NEW ZFP. UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 UPDATED NEAR TERM POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...JUST BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST.|
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN SOME LOCATIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE VA BORDER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WAS RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF AND MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH VFR AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL

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