Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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544 FXUS63 KJKL 260015 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 815 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 800 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 23z sfc analysis shows a stagnant weather pattern with weak high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky. The only clouds out there are some high ones loosely connected to the outflow from Maria as they spin north and east over the southern and central Appalachians. These should have little impact on differentiating the wx overnight from that of the past few. As such, expect a decent ridge to valley temperature difference through the night with areas of fog developing in the valleys - locally dense near the rivers and other bodies of water. The fog should be similar to how it was Monday morning and not quite as thick as it had been late last week and into the weekend. Even so, that will be something to watch through the late hours of the night. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints running in the low to mid 60s most places amid light and variable winds. The grids have been updated for current T/Td/Sky obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 Upper ridging continues to hold strong from New England through the Tennessee Valley as Hurricane Maria sits off the mid-Atlantic coast with another weak low across the Gulf coast. These latter features will bring additional cirrus cloud cover through this afternoon and into this evening before drier air advects into eastern Kentucky in the upper levels later this evening into tonight. Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid-upper 80s this afternoon as north to northeast winds keep dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clearing skies and light winds will promote typical valley fog later tonight into Tuesday morning as temperatures dip into the upper 50s while ridges remain in the low-mid 60s. Anomalous warmth will continue Tuesday with only subtle weakening of the synoptic ridge locally, allowing for temperatures in the mid-upper 80s once again. Northern stream energy from the northern Great Lakes into Ontario will further dampen long-residence ridging, but persistence will once again spell the forecast for Tuesday night with a similar ridge/valley temperature split and areas of valley fog. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Wednesday with the jet stream largely positioned over the northern CONUS. While a closed low seems to become cut off over the southwest and Hurricane Maria just off NC coast, ridging largely remains over the the mid and lower MS Valley as well as into the TN Valley. The only other threat of precip remains with the storm track over the northern CONUS. The pattern along with the period of dry conditions that have persisted, a low chance of measurable precip is likely to persist. The northern stream at this point remains unable to push a feature through the lower OH Valley that will bring a significant rainfall at this point. The two troughs dropping south on Wednesday and Saturday significantly shear out and dry out as they approach the Appalachian Range. This is confirmed in the latest Euro and GFS runs. At this point, the main impact from these will only be an increase in cloud cover. This dry trend is confirmed with the Super Blend showing a dry forecast through the extended. Even into Monday, the newest GFS and 12Z Euro run shows a dry forecast with ridging remaining strong over the Middle Atlantic area and central Appalachians. Thus have lowered pops for Day 7. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 VFR conditions look to largely continue at all sites through the period. The exception may be later tonight into early Tuesday morning as valley fog develops and brings local MVFR or worse visibilities. Have elected to only stick a tempo at SME late tonight in keeping with a mainly persistence based forecast for next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GUSEMAN/GREIF

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