Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181925 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 A rather stagnant weather pattern remains in place across eastern KY with a dissipating front extending from southwest IN and western KY to central OH and weak surface high pressure across our area. A few showers and storms have been noted with the dissipating front over western KY, and there have once again been scattered showers and storms in the higher terrain of the Appalachians to our southeast. An isolated storm even developed over the higher terrain of Wise County VA this afternoon. With the nearby storm in VA we will continue with a slight chance of a thunderstorm in our highest terrain near VA for the next couple of hours. Wednesday will be very similar to today. There will be some fog to start the day, mainly in the river valleys. There will also once again be a very small chance for a thunderstorm in the highest terrain near the VA border during the afternoon. Afternoon maximum temperatures will again be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 At the start of the period upper level ridging will be over the center of the country while an upper level low is along the Carolina coast. The ridge will gradually flatten and extend east as we move into the weekend, with the upper low working its way back east on the south side of the upper high. Our main weather message going into the weekend will still be the heat with highs mostly in the lower 90s for the end of the week and the first part of the weekend. While temperatures will be above normal this is still nothing that unusual for this time of year, though overnight lows in the lower 70s for Friday through Sunday are only a few degrees away from record warm minimums for this time of year. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the weekend and into early next week as the ridge flattens, troughing begins to take shape in the northeast U.S., the upper low already referenced moves west across the Gulf Coast states and a surface cold front drops into the OH valley where it will likely become stationary. This change in the weather pattern will also result in temperatures closer to normal for early next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017 Weak high pressure across the area will result in a rather stagnant weather pattern through mid week, with VFR conditions and light winds prevailing into Wednesday. A scattered cumulus cloud field at 4K to 5K feet will dissipate this evening. There is still a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm right along the VA border this afternoon. Fog will once again develop in the river valleys tonight with fog and LIFR conditions likely affecting SME for a couple of hours around daybreak. All other TAF sites will continue remain VFR through Wednesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH

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