Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230325 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND. THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO SLIP IN LATE. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY. SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JORDAN LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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