Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280543 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO. THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND... GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR 16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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