Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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737 FXUS63 KJKL 090352 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1052 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SMALL FLAKES BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY PRESENTLY. THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LIKELY LARGER DENDRITES ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A REPORT OUT OF BELL COUNTY EARLIER ALREADY HAD 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW AND THAT WAS BEFORE THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW WENT OVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VERY SLOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE FLAKE SIZE. HOWEVER...AREAS OF ENHANCEMENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE AREAS WHERE WEST FLOW PUSHES UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPING TO SPAWN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. UPDATED POPS/WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT CURRENT ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL. BETTER BAND OF SNOW IS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WHERE WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088- 104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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