Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 021741 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON... THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JVM

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