-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 230838
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS TO START
THE TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

AS TIME GOES BY...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO
THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY COINCIDING WITH THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREEPING
EASTWARD WILL POSE A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER
NORTHEAST. HAVE USED A GENERALIZED APPROACH AT THIS POINT...GRANTING
CREDENCE TO BOTH SOLUTIONS AND USING 20 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD FROM
MONDAY ON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS FOG TRIES TO FORM DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 2 AND 3K FEET AGL. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME...WITH IFR AT JKL...HOWEVER TEMPORARY
FLUCTUATIONS ESPECIALLY IN VISIBILITY COULD BRING IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR
STATUS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN