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888
FXUS63 KJKL 081945
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Our main thunderstorm potential lasts into early Thursday, with
  some showers then possible at times through early next week.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible until late tonight or early
  Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats, but there is also a risk of tornadoes. Locally heavy
  rainfall could also lead to flash flooding, especially in the
  Cumberland basin.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold
  front passing on Thursday will bring cooler temperatures from
  Friday through early next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Effective warm frontal boundary has lifted north across southern KY,
with new storms increasing in coverage now that earlier stratiform
rains have ended. Upstream storms have produced some hail and wind
reports, with a potential tornado farther into western KY. As the
afternoon rolls on, expect instability to increase in our southern
KY counties, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds, and at
least a narrow window for tornado potential. The farther you get
from the KY/TN border, the smaller the window for severe potential
late this afternoon and evening. In fact, overall rainfall totals
from hi-res models have come down the farther north you go. Will let
the ongoing Flood Watch hang on for now, but wouldn`t be surprised
if it could let parts of it go later this evening.

As we get into Thursday, a broad area of low pressure will be
crossing northeast KY. We`ll keep in chances for thunderstorms, but
these will not be severe, and those chances will end by late
afternoon as the low heads to the mid-Atlantic coast. We`ll see some
sunshine by then as well, and expect temperatures to rise to the
upper 70s to around 80.

Thursday night, another shortwave rotates across the Midwest and
will bring in some light rain chances towards daybreak Friday. Lows
should generally be in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Cooler air will continue to flow into the region behind a
cold front departing to the southeast on Thursday night.
Significant precip will be gone by Thursday night, with only a
slight chance of showers lingering. Below normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the weekend. A mid-upper level trough
supporting the cool weather will be anchored over eastern Canada
and the northeast CONUS. Multiple waves will rotate around the
trough, with one passing over our area on Friday, and another on
Saturday. Each of these will bring a potential for an uptick in
showers. Have held back on the mention of thunder, with forecast
soundings suggesting convection won`t be deep enough.

The trough should be lifting out to the northeast on Sunday, with
rising geopotential heights locally. Along with warm air advection
and at least partial sunshine, warming temperatures will result.

After this point, model differences become more significant. An
upper low lingering above the western CONUS over the next several
days will begin to open up and get picked up in flow aloft. The
GFS is faster than the ECMWF to bring it eastward, and has light
precip arriving here from the west on Monday and carrying into
Tuesday. The slower ECMWF does not generate light precip until
Tuesday. A model blend would suggest nothing more than a slight
chance of precip Monday, followed by a chance on Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Light rains across southern KY will continue shifting eastward.
Storms will start to fire mid to late afternoon, except for mid-
evening for KSJS/KSYM. Expecting another broad area of rain
showers to develop overnight. Ceilings should lower late tonight,
with perhaps IFR conditions at those two northern sites tlikely
after midnightoward daybreak. Storm chances diminish by daybreak
areawide, with conditions slowly improving. Winds will pick up
from the southwest Thu. early afternoon.
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&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHARP