Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200545 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 DID AN UPDATE TO THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ARE MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AGAIN DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT REMAIN OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE EXIT OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THESE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING NICELY NOW...WITH READINGS IN THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN IN THE LOW 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 60S. CIRRUS IS ALSO STARTING TO THIN OUT...SO MAINLY JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AVIATION PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING LIGHT DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GREIF

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