Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260531 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 131 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL SO FAR TONIGHT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH OUT THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN POPPING AROUND DAWN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL LATER INTO THE NIGHT WHERE SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS AND ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWERED THE TEMPS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED AN UPDATED ZFP AS CONVECTION WANES LATER TONIGHT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OT THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 LONG LIVED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTH TO THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGIME AND ITS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. ONCE ACTIVITY PEAKS THIS EVENING...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE PRECIP MOST PLACES TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL AGAIN ENHANCE OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ON TUESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT. AN EVENTUAL DECLINE IN PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONE OR TWO OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOZ AND SME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SYM MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER IN AN HOUR OR SO...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE SYM 6Z TAF. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST DATA...THE 15 TO 16Z TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE WHEN ALL OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE A SHOT AT EXPERIENCING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AROUND 1Z TONIGHT. AFTER THAT THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR

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