Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050927 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 527 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH KY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ACROSS THE AREA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S. SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EARLY CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE DAY. WILL DEAL WITH SOME FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS BURNS OFF JUST AFTER 14Z. ALOFT...THE PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ROUNDING OUT JUST ALONG THE TN VALLEY. HEADING INTO THE DAY A STRONG WAVE HAS TRAVERSED THE RIDGE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NOW STREAKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN WESTERN KY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALREADY NOW INTO WESTERN KY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KY BY 15Z. THE BETTER FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM IN MO AND KS WOULD SUGGEST AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A TAD OVER DONE...SUGGEST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.6 TO 2.0 RANGE. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING STORMS. A RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND LACK OF WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUB SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE BULK OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WAVE ARRIVES IN EAST KY. CONCERNING TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...MODEL PROFILES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD INDICATE QUITE A STEEP WARM LAYER...NEAR 2 INCH PWATS...AND CAPE PROFILES EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ALONG THE COLUMN ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE A BIT QUICKER AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE ALLOWING LESS RESIDENCE TIME...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INGREDIENTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THUS...ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FROM THE DAYS HEATING...THOUGH LESS...WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONE FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNING CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE...SO THIS WOULD MAKE PRECIP RATHER INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF ANY OF THIS DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME OR A COLD POOL DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BECOME A WIND THREAT BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN SHARPENS UP MORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...BEFORE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST ONCE AGAIN AND AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REPLACED WITH A DEEPER TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE APPROACH. A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE DECREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY ON THE HORIZON BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS PAST EVENING HAS LEFT A SATURATED SURFACE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THIS A VARIABLE CONDITION THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS HEATING INTO THE DAY BEGINS. WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE TOWARDS THE EVENING SO WILL INTRODUCE VCTS TO THE TAF SITES. FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104- 106>120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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