Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171820 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 120 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 119 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 Winds are mixing a bit deeper than anticipated across eastern Kentucky. While 8% fuel moisture values wont be reached, especially in the south where soaking rain in the last few days has occurred, critical fire weather conditions are possible to be reached. Therefore, updated the grids, HWO and sent out an SPS to address the fire weather conditions. UPDATE Issued at 1235 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 Currently, temps are on the increase this afternoon as some locations have already reached 60 degrees across the area. In addition to this, as expected some of the RH reports are already in the lower 30s percent range with a location or two in the upper 20s. Have updated the forecast to account for these trends. Winds have been up out of the southwest with some gusts to about 18 knots. UPDATE Issued at 919 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 Updated the forecast for today input the latest observations in the grids. Refined the valley temps for the day and into tonight. It seems that with the southwest flow increasing, there may not be as much of a ridge to valley temperatures difference tonight before the cloud cover rolls in ahead of the next disturbance. One concern is with the strong southwest flow today gusting to 20 knots in some places, will some drier air be mixed to the surface this afternoon, dropping our low 30 percent RH`s even lower. Will monitor this heading into the day. UPDATE Issued at 624 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 The forecast is still on track early this morning. Today should mark the beginning of a nice warm up across the area, with highs still expected to max out in the low to mid 60s across the area. Skies should be partly cloudy to mostly clear with southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 mph. The latest obs were ingested into the forecast to establish new trends, but no other changes to the forecast were needed.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring continued warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky today and tonight. Mostly clear skies and generally southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph will prevail across the area today and tonight. Cloud cover will begin to increase from the southwest towards dawn tomorrow, and we will finally see precipitation chances return, as an area of low pressure approaches the area from the southwest. The first rain showers are expected to begin moving into our southern counties early Saturday morning. The rain will then gradually overspread the area through out the day on Saturday, with the best rain chances anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures should be well above normal both today and tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 60s expected today, and ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s on Saturday. Tonights lows are forecast to bottom out in the lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 A split flow long wave pattern is progged across the CONUS through the middle next week, with amplified, but generally progressive systems to contend with in this regime. The models continue to be in good agreement through the weekend on the small scale features, but then begin to diverge by late in the period due to evolution and timing differences. There is high confidence in the well above normal temperatures progged for the extended portion of the forecast. Highs on Sunday will average in the low to mid 60s, with readings in the 65 to 70 degree range expected for Monday and Tuesday, and then in the mid 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. A few daily high records may be threatened on Monday. Lows will generally average in the 40s through the period, and only adjusted some of the valleys down a bit during the more favored ridge/valley split pattern at times. A brief bout of unsettled weather will be in place Saturday night into early Sunday morning, as an upper level low passes through the KY/TN border. Sharp upper level ridging will then take hold into early next week, providing the dry and unseasonably mild weather. A longer period of unsettled weather looks to return for the middle of next week, as several short wave troughs move through the Mississippi Valley. Plenty of uncertainty remains in the evolution of the northern and southern streams, so have only maintained chance POPs throughout the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017 VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period as today, southwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 knots will be the main concern for aviation. Skies will remain relatively clear with the exception of some cirrus. Towards the end of the TAF period some mid level decks will roll into the area from the southwest tonight. By 14z tomorrow, a 5 KFT layer will roll in with a few showers possible by the end of the period. This may be enough for a brief MVFR period due to visibility in showers. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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