Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191858 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO WANE. EXPECT A CONTINUED DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NO THUNDER...FOR THE EVENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS A NEARLY CONSTANT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT...AND A SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ESE ACROSS IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EAST KY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AFTER SUNSET AS THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. EVEN SO WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR VICINITY...AND MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. THE MUGGY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES SLOWLY THROUGH TIME. TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN OUR STANDARD MODEL BLEND MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM THOUGH CONSIDERING HOW WET MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN RECENTLY AND ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOW 70S MUCH OF THE TIME. NEVERTHELESS...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY FEATURE SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER...OR AT LEAST EQUAL TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED JULY 10TH THROUGH THE 13TH. WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH A DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR EAST... THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSER TO THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS GIVING WAY TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SBH

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