Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180520 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 120 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2017 GOES-16 Advance Nighttime Microphysics RGB showing fog becoming solidly entrenched in the valleys once again tonight. Given the past few nights, have opted to go ahead with an SPS to cover the dense fog through 10 am Monday morning. Conditions are very similar to last night, but perhaps visibilities and temperatures in the obs about an hour behind the pace set last night. Thus, overall, very little distinguishable difference between the two nights. UPDATE Issued at 1123 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Forecast still on a good track late this evening. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast was on track with current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package will be sent out to change to overnight wording. UPDATE Issued at 934 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Forecast seems to be in good shape so far this evening. Freshened up the near term grids to make sure they were on track with current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Did a quick update to freshen up the near term grids, making sure the temps, dew points, winds, and clouds were on track with current conditions. This resulted in only minor tweaks, including warming temperatures across our SW for the next couple of hours. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. No updates to the forecast package are needed at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 450 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 20z sfc analysis shows relative high pressure through the area and this is keeping the shower threat at bay while some activity is noted well to the west. On satellite, a cu field at near 5k feet is starting to diminish as the sun is heading down. Temperatures did get up to the low 80s most places, just above normals and the earlier guidance. Meanwhile, with light northerly winds, dewpoints are generally in the lower 60s. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a weakening ridge over the southeast part of the nation. Through this, some weak mid level energy will pass over Kentucky. The first patch of these fade out tonight with another one reaching the northern part of the area Monday afternoon before dissipating to the north into the night. Given the model symmetry will favor a blended solution with a lean toward the higher resolution CAMs and a good bit of persistence - especially at night. Sensible weather will feature more of the same in this relatively stagnant pattern. Expect mostly clear skies at night with areas of fog developing toward midnight and becoming locally dense in the river valleys. Monday will be another warm late summer day with partly sunny skies and just a small chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm and mainly just over our Bluegrass region in the northwest parts of the CWA. Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point of all the grids making some adjustments to the temperature ones each night based on terrain in anticipation of small to moderate ridge and valley splits. As for PoPs, kept them in for Monday afternoon as the sfc high and ridge aloft is not that strong and there have been hints of convection in the models for that time frame in the past couple of runs. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 The latest blended model data suggests that eastern Kentucky will see periods of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Saturday. Any storms would occur mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. There will be a couple of days when most or all of the rain will occur along and south of the Mountain Parkway, and a few other days when the showers and storms will be scattered across the entire area. It still appears that temperatures in the extended will be well above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s expected, and nightly lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. Winds should be generally light and variable. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2017 Another night of dense valley fog will be seen in eastern Kentucky with the fog lifting onto some of the ridgetops around daybreak. This is very similar to what we have seen the last several mornings. Visibilities and temperatures are about an hour behind yesterdays pace, so only change was to go about an hour slower with the onset of the fog tonight in the TAFS. Otherwise, expect fog to burn off by 14z again with VFR conditions returning. Fog will be possible again Monday night, with fog developing after 03z, but not impacting TAFS until after 06z. Light winds are expected through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KAS

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