Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 061550 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1050 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING. JUST DEALING WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOADED IN THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS TO BETTER DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES. MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY. ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K FEET AGL RANGE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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