Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 192044 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 344 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 344 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 A shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley this morning is currently exiting to the east this afternoon. This has impacted the CWA, keeping moisture in the form of low clouds across the region as well as some sprinkles (and flurries in the highest terrain) throughout the morning and early afternoon. As this shortwave continues to shift eastward, expect these sprinkles/flurries to taper off over the next few hours. Latest satellite imagery shows the back edge of the llvl clouds now over central Kentucky nudging towards our CWA. Expect clouds to begin clearing out late this afternoon and into the evening from west to east. As we head into the overnight, an area of surface high pressure will begin nosing in from the SW, and should be located across the CWA by 12Z Monday. Winds will turn more SW as the system approaches, then remain S to SW through the day Monday and into Monday night as it slowly shifts eastward. Made adjustments to the valley winds and temps, lowering them based on the decoupling that is likely to take place with high pressure overhead, especially Monday night under the more southerly flow. Meanwhile, southerly flow will help to boost temps on Monday afternoon back to around 50 degrees in most locations. Latest soundings show a very dry airmass in place across the region with the incoming high, so expect mostly clear skies throughout the remainder of the short term forecast period after clearing clouds this evening. While a few patches of fog can`t be ruled out in the most sheltered valleys, the overall likelihood of fog is fairly low based on how dry the latest soundings are, therefore kept out of forecast. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 The period will be dominated by a general longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, and periodic impulses rotating through to affect the trough`s amplitude and position. At the surface, these impulses are expected to support a cold front moving through our area Tuesday night, another cold front which dies as it approaches the Ohio Valley Thursday night, and a strong cold front expected to pass through our area next weekend. No significant moisture return is forecast ahead of the fronts. In the 12Z model runs, the GFS does generate light precip over our northeast counties on Saturday, and its ensemble mean shows light precip over our area on Saturday into Saturday evening. Have allowed for a slight chance of showers over our northeast counties in those periods, with that being the only mention of precip during the long term period. For temps, a couple of brief mild spells are forecast in the warm air advection immediately ahead of the cold fronts. Otherwise, readings are expected to be near or below normal.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017 BKN to OVC MVFR to low end VFR CIGS are still ongoing across eastern Kentucky, though there is a defined back edge now moving across western Kentucky. Expect CIGS to start clearing out during the evening from southwest to northeast. Clear skies will then stay in place through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain from the west to northwest throughout the rest of the day, generally around 8 to 12 knots, though some isolated higher gusts will be possible. Winds will then dissipate throughout the evening and into the overnight, remaining under 10 knots through tomorrow as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW

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