Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 090103 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 903 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. EARLIER SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION DESPITE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS. CONVECTION NEAR THE TN BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT WHERE IT OCCURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 STORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. UPDRAFTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME SOME WARM AIR BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER GOING AWAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DWINDLING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS COMING MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS MODEL...WITH A DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS NOW FOR A VIGOROUS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN CANADA AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE AT ITS MOST POTENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS IT DIPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN LENDING ITSELF TO MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLER DAY TIME HIGHS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE START OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WARM AND HUMID. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 9Z OR SO...THOUGH CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 3Z SHOULD COME CLOSEST TO SME AND LOZ. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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