Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181757 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1257 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 100 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Current conditions around the area feature a swath of moisture advecting north from the southwest in the form of some showers. Trends have made for some difficulty of saturating the atmosphere for rain to reach the surface given the rather dry past 24 hours. Finally over the past hour has a few locations along the TN border has some reports of measured rainfall occurred. Have updated the forecast to account for this slow development and according to WPC, QPF amounts have been lessened as well. Due to this, should begin to see the bulk of the rainfall in the next 6 to 8 hours as the disturbance traverses the area. Sunday and Sunday night look to be a dry period as high pressure shifts back over the area. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Forecast still on track early this morning. Rain showers are beginning to move across the Tennessee border and into eastern Kentucky as we speak. These showers will be isolated to start, but should become scattered by late this morning. The rain will persist through the overnight hours, and should exit the area by mid morning Sunday. The rain will be generally light, with a quarter of an inch or less expected at most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley regions. The first rain showers should begin moving into the area early this morning, with scattered showers spreading across the remainder of eastern Kentucky through out the day. The rain should begin to taper off tonight, with the last rain showers exiting the area mid morning Sunday. Based on the latest model data, precipitation amounts should be meager at best, with a quarter of an inch or less expected pretty much everywhere. Above normal temperatures will persist during the weekend as well, with highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected, and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday. Tonights lows should only fall into the low to mid 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph today, and will shift to the west on Sunday after the area of low pressure moves off to our east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 346 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Springlike warmth will remain in place through the upcoming week. While the vast majority of the week looks to remain precipitation free, later Tuesday into early Wednesday looks to bring some meager rainfall amounts of perhaps one to two tenths of an inch. This will come by way of a shortwave trough extending from the Northwestern Territories to Mexico, following deep layer ridging and an invasion of balmy 850 mb temperatures, warming temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday. Further promoting this warmth will be a downslope wind component with east/southeast low level winds in place. Any lingering rainfall Wednesday morning will shift east during the afternoon, although would not be surprised to see drying ensue by early Wednesday morning given the northern stream of this wave dampening and shearing out as the southern stream portion digs into the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, temperatures will remain warm, in the mid-upper 60s, despite a period of low clouds and without a notable change in airmass. An upper level disturbance will then develop across the Great Basin and Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, an upper low from the Canadian Prairies to Hudson Bay will usher energy into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Not expecting any resulting rainfall for eastern Kentucky from this latter feature, but will have to monitor lead impulses ejecting downstream of the former system. Slim rain shower chances will thus result Thursday, before chances increase later Friday into the first half of next weekend. Currently looking like a cold front will finally kick through eastern Kentucky, bringing bonafide rain chances and cooler temperatures. However, upper low track across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes warrants skepticism as to greater rainfall and also potential thunder chances. Will therefore keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast until prospects for more appreciable/robust large scale forcing for ascent become clearer. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Expect VFR conditions to persist through 00Z tonight for all the TAF sites but as the bulk of the moisture advects into the region over the next 6 hours, there may begin to be some lowering of cigs. Have put this into the TAFS mostly after 03Z tonight with some lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR. These cigs should persist at least into Sunday morning. Winds should remain light through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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