Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 301748 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 148 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE DIMINISHING ON RADAR...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND START THE ISOLATED POPS AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. ALSO...WE ONLY HAVE A COUPLE SITES ACROSS THE REGION REPORTING FOG AS OF 13Z...AND THE ONES THAT ARE SEEM TO BE SHOWING RAPIDLY INCREASING VISIBILITIES. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FOG FROM ONGOING FORECAST AS IT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY BURNED OFF DURING THE 13Z HOUR. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS IN. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN NOW SOME SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER. SO UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT THEM TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...A SEPARATE SLUG OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL AND GA COASTLINE. THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH FL COAST TRACKS NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE AL AND FL PANHANDLE TRACKING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL...THIS BEING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THIS CLUSTER OF CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING EAST WILL PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM. ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AN EVER PRESENT WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE UNDER THIS PATTERN BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DEPENDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT IN THIS PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE TERRAIN AREAS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE TYPICAL SHORTCOMINGS GIVEN THE PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF EASTERN KY. FROM THESE CLOUDS WE ARE SEEING RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD SIGNIFY RAIN. HOWEVER...SO FAR...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN ELEVATED AND HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSME WHO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO/. DON/T WANT TO RULE OUT RAIN COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF COVERAGE AT THIS POINT MAKES IT HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR EVEN IF A SPECIFIC TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE ALL TOGETHER. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS AND GFS GUIDANCE ARE STILL POINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z DESPITE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG AT EACH TAF SITE...SO JUST TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR AT THIS TIME. BY TOMORROW...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS TODAY...WITH FOG DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING AND A DIURNAL CU DECK SETTING UP ALONG THE MVFR/VFR ZONE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.