Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271848 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MAKING CHANGES...MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR HOURLY TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WERE OUT OF THE GATE FAIRLY STRONG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND HAD RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. BUT CAA ON THE BACK OF A FAIRLY STEADY 5KT NORTHERLY WIND APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TEMPER ANY ADDITIONAL...OR MEANINGFUL RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 FLURRY AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE IN THE EAST. STILL...THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE IN THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE NOON TO FINALLY REMOVE THE FLURRIES. REPORTS OVER THE AREA HAVE ACTUALLY COME IN WITH AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR EAST BUT THIS IS STILL INDEED A HIGH RATIO ACCUMULATION. DECIDED TO LET THE SPS FALL OFF BUT LEFT THE HWO MENTION OF A FEW SLICK SPOTS DUE TO REFREEZING DAMP SPOTS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DECREASING TODAY AS WELL BEFORE MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH FRESH OBS AND SENT THE GRIDS TO THE NDFD SERVERS. THE ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD TO GO AND WILL NOT NEED TO BE UPDATED.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE LAST PUSH OF SOME FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA OF A HALF AN INCH AT THE VERY MOST IN SOME AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH SOME 20 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. UPSTREAM...SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT THIS WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN TO OUR AREA. WITH THAT SAID...REFLECTIVITIES COMING TO A FINE END IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BE THE END OF THE ACTIVITY AS HEAD INTO THE DAY AFTER DAWN. THE TERRAIN IN THE EAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE SOME PROLONGED FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY BUT THAT WILL BE THE END OF THE ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...WILL BE LETTING THE SPS FALL OFF AT 5AM. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN WILL EAT AWAY AT THE SKY COVER INTO THE DAY ALLOWING SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S AND EVEN NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE BLUEGRASS AREAS MAY SEE NEAR ZERO FOR LOWS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE IN EARNEST INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY MORNING...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RISING BEFORE DAWN IN SOME AREAS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BUT DEW POINTS ALREADY RESPONDING INTO THE MID 20S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE GIVEN HOW DRY THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS WAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY FOR HIGHS. IN FACT...OVERRUNNING PRECIP BY SATURDAY EVENING WILL ALREADY BE DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN IN AT THIS TIME. THIS SEEMS PRETTY QUICK IN DEVELOPMENT BUT THE NAM AND THE SREF SEEM TO BE ON BOARD WITH THIS ARRIVAL TIME INTO THESE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A VERY PERIOD IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD WILL ACTUALLY START OFF FAIRLY QUIET...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ABOUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH BELOW FREEZING AIR THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND WARM AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. AFTER THIS SHORT RESPITE...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY...AS WARM GULF AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA AND OVERRIDES THE WARM FRONT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HOURS ON TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY LETTING UP. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. HYDRO ISSUES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MELT THE EXISTING SNOW PACK...WHICH WILL CREATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS ADDITIONAL WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AS WELL. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT PAST TWO WEEKS. THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO FEATURE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE AREA. THE WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MERCURY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MAY EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AFTER LOWS IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT COULD CONCEIVABLE FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BEHIND YET ANOTHER DEARLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE START THE FORECAST...VFR THEREAFTER. FLURRIES ARE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CU FIELD WILL LIFT A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTING CLOUD BASES TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CIGS EXIST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD VEERING FROM OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RAY

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