Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
615 FXUS63 KJKL 152359 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 759 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 759 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 Strong, fast moving cold front is a little more than half way through the forecast area. Expectations are that it will exit eastern Kentucky between 9 and 10 p.m. this evening. Winds along and just behind the front have been gusting as high as 40-45 mph through the late afternoon and early evening. But there seems to have been a decreasing trend over the last hour or so. There has also been some isolated thunder through the evening as well. But the threat of thunder should end in the next hour or so. Frontal boundary will continue to push east overnight as northwesterly winds gradually drop off. Clouds will also linger until closer to dawn. Adjusted PoPs, sfc temps and dew points for the early evening update, mainly in an attempt to better capture changes in sensible elements associated with the frontal zone as it pushes across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 A broken line of showers well ahead of the approaching cold front is moving across the area. The lack of instability has limited the strength of the convection, but instability is a little greater in the southwest part of the area where 18Z SPC mesoanalysis has CAPE over 1000 j/kg. Some lightning has shown up southwest of the forecast area in far northern TN near the KY border so will continue to carry a slight chance of thunder for the next few hours. Other scattered showers are near the front which has passed SDF and CVG. There are some gusty winds with the front with a peak wind of 36 knots at CVG and 39 knots at SDF. The front will move quickly southeast across the area late this afternoon and early evening and be southeast of KY by around 00Z. The shower chance will diminish quickly after the frontal passage and much cooler air will spread into the area. While fog will likely limit frost formation Monday night, there may still be some scattered frost in some areas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 There is good model agreement with the evolution of the overall upper level flow across the United States during the coming week. Initially there will be weak troughing in the east, and weak ridging over the southwest U.S. This will transition to a slightly wavy zonal flow, but by the end of the week as troughing develops in the west, upper ridging will build in the east. Overall this means an extended period of dry weather for us, with warming temperatures. At the beginning of the period we will still be under the influence of the cool air mass which will overspread the area Sunday night, and frost remains a possibility in a few spots Wednesday morning. However on Tuesday the surface high will begin a gradual shift to the east and this will combine with a building upper level ridge late in the week to bring a warming trend, with temperatures well above normal by the end of the week. Very warm weather will continue through next weekend with readings around 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 Strong, fast moving cold front is a little more than half way through the forecast area. Expectations are that it will exit eastern Kentucky between 9 and 10 p.m. this evening. Winds along and just behind the front have been gusting as high as 40-45 mph through the late afternoon and early evening. But there seems to have been a decreasing trend over the last hour or so. There has also been some isolated thunder through the evening as well. But the threat of thunder should end in the next hour or so. Frontal boundary will continue to push east overnight as northwesterly winds gradually drop off to around 5 kts and shower activity comes to an end. Generally MVFR CIGS will linger until around dawn. Northwest winds will increase again as diurnal effects kick in, generally about 10 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...RAY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.