Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281106 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 706 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...ABE/JP AVIATION...JMW

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