Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290604 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 WITH NEW AVIATION FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS AND POPS STILL LOOKED REASONABLE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION. IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND PIEDMONT. THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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