Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271856 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACK END OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO POSSIBLY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THIS UPPER HIGH IN PLACE...THE SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE IT WILL BE SWELTERING AND DRY OUT WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CORRECTION DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. ON THE DAYS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...THE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY...MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY HEAD INTO THE JACKSON CWA...BUT SOME LIGHTNING AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS SEEM TO BE MAINTAINING VFR STATUS /OR BORDERLINE MVFR/...AND RAIN SEEMS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LITTLE RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED. MAIN FOCUS FOR TAF PERIOD WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT AN EVENT THAT IS RARE FOR EASTERN KY IN JULY. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GENERAL IDEA ON THE POTENTIAL THREATS. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING THE VSBY TO AROUND A MILE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS WELL. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES THAT THE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES FOR THE TAF SITES AS NEEDED ONCE STORMS BEGIN INITIATING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JMW

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