Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050300 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1100 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND 40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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