Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240820 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 320 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD. THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088- 118. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...DJ

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