Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040311 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1011 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1011 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 We continue to see the atmosphere moisten across the TN Valley but we struggle to see that across eastern KY. This should happen over time as we see a more top down approach, but the BL winds remain out of the east which will make this process more difficult. Therefore continue to blend in the consshort which progresses the POPs in slower. That as the suite of CAMs show precip making it into the Lake Cumberland region by 6z to 7z at best. Other edits were more minor for this update. UPDATE Issued at 652 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Starting to moisten up across the TN Valley this hour and showers will continue to move NE toward the region overnight. This as moisture streams north and the moisture begin to lower into the lower levels overnight. Based on downstream obs precip is being seen in areas with around a 7 to 8 kft deck at best. Given the slower progression lowered POPs in the first few hours as better moisture remains to our SW. Otherwise more minor updates to latest obs and trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The short term period will continue to feature a cold and wet weather pattern, with mostly light rain expected from this evening through the day on Monday. The latest model soundings have trended a bit warmer in the lower levels, so only a few isolated instances of rain/snow mix are expected late tonight into early Monday. An area of low pressure coming out of the southern Plains will be our weather maker through Sunday night. Temperatures during the period will quite cool, with overnight lows in the 30s and highs on Sunday in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A third system, however, is on track to move across the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the departing area of low pressure. Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30 degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow sets up across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Pesky low deck remains in place over a portion of eastern KY this evening, but there are some signs of improvement seen at JKL this hour which seems to be along the periphery. IR SAT does show we at least have some high clouds above that will continue to stream into the region. Therefore the fluctuation from MVFR to VFR will continue through the evening for the more northern and eastern sites. The next issue will be moving through the night we do expect clouds and moisture to continue to stream in from the SW. This will lead to a top down approach to the cloud layers and eventually we will see MVFR creep in from SW to NE through 12Z. Also as we moisten up we will begin to see rain showers toward dawn and perhaps some snow mixes in briefly before changing to all rain. We could begin to see IFR conditions toward the end and beyond the TAF period, as moisture continues to lower based on the latest model sounding data. Winds are expected to remain light through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ

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