Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250136 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 936 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA...VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY PART OF THE FORECAST THAT NEEDS UPDATED. ADJUSTED MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG. EASTERN VALLEYS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH THESE LOCATIONS DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RIDGETOPS WILL STAY SOME 10 DEGREES MILDER...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THEIR POORER PERFORMANCE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY AND ENOUGH CAPPING STILL IN THE MID- LEVELS...THINK THAT MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BESIDES A STRAY SHOWER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW SHOWERS MAY THREATEN THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS IN OUR VICINITY. ON TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS OHIO/INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH. MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY IS WHETHER MOISTURE CAN INCREASE FAST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT STANDS NOW...MODELS ARE ALREADY OVERACHIEVING ON MOISTURE RETURN TODAY...AND SAME MAY BE TRUE TOMORROW. THUS...WITHOUT MUCH OF A TRIGGER ON TUESDAY...HARD TO SEE CONVECTION BEING MORE THAN ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON IF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THEN DRIFT SOUTH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS COULD GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE LATER TIMING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY MINIMAL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...AND KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING TO SPEAK OF ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON POPS A TAD AS COVERAGE MIGHT BE MORE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING OUR BEST FORCING OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY ONWARD AS FAR AS WHERE FRONT SETS UP...AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPART. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL SQUEEZE IN SOME DRY PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW THURSDAY AND BEYOND BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL...PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE STILL CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL DEVELOP SOME FOG...THIS WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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