Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 310050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 BECOMING READILY APPARENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS INCREASED FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A STREAM OF STORMS WILL RIDE NORTH OUT OF TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AN EXTENSION OF NWS NASHVILLE/S FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WAS COORDINATED WITH LMK. DECIDED TO EXTEND THIS WATCH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD IN TIME BUT RIGHT NOW COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT WATCH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND PRECIP COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT PULL OFF TO THE EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2 INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... WITH MAX READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL STAY ON PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AS THE MODELS STAYED IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SLUG OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF TENNESSEE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BEST RAIN COVERAGE APPEARS TO STAY WEST OF JKL THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD THEN AFFECT ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A LOWERING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND KEPT THINGS MVFR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME TOMORROW WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR IF THAT MAY HAPPEN FOR ANY APPRECIABLE LENGTH OF TIME IS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...ABE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.