Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 282001 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE MINDFUL OF. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER 02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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