Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 061812 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 212 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WERE INCREASED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES HAVE BEEN DONE TO FINE TUNE THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A SANDY HOOK TO JACKSON TO HARLAN LINE FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...CU DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THAT EASTERN LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. IN THE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER AREAS...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN THE SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR AWAY...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP CLOSED LOW DESCENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EVENING BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND DEPARTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A MINOR WAVE WILL SQUEEZE BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THE NAM12 THEREAFTER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO SET UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW AND AS A RESULT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SPECIFICALLY...CAPE WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOW LIS AND VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND SOME TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ADJUST POPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE THE POPULATION SCHEME...IN THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND ALSO FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CANADA REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SWING A FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE OPENS AND EJECTS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. FOLLOWING THIS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHIFTING. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DRIER THAN THE EURO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE EXTENDED SEEMS QUITE WET AND ACTIVE. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS WELL KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED. NEAR THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS UP A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE EURO MIGHT SUGGEST AN MCS SET UP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SEEM SUBSTANTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSING ON MAX HEATING. STRONG CAPPING HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LIMIT CONVECTION A BIT MORE AS THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. STILL WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP GOOD INSTABILITY IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 CU AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF JKL AND NEAR SJS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SJS AND JKL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AT NEAR 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET AT THE TAF SITES WITH CU OR STRATOCU IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS SHOULD THEN SLACKEN...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND 15Z...MAINLY AT SYM...LOZ...AND SME. VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN FORM AND MAY LIMIT VIS TO IFR RANGE BETWEEN 4Z AND 13Z IN SOME AREAS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 8Z AND CIGS DOWN NEAR 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A STRAY SHOWER. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JP

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