Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020755 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 355 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH IT IS RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST. SO FAR THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER EAST KENTUCKY WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF SC AT 5K FEET SPOTTED JUST NORTH OF JKL. DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN AS THICK IN THE VALLEYS AND ELSEWHERE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE TOWARD DAWN WITH PATCHY DENSE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THE RIDGES TO THE MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE MAJOR TRANSITION THAT WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A SHARP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE/PORTION OF THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH PASSING PLOWING INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...MODERATE RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED OUT THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS ALONG WITH SOME ADDED BLENDING FROM THE LATEST ECMWF. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WHAT COULD BE THE WARM SEASON/S LAST HURRAH AS WARMTH IS PUMPED OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. THE INITIAL FRONT THEN CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY AND SECONDARY BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE HEALTHY WIND FIELD THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THOUGH LOW INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THEIR DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE LATE FRIDAY. USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THERE AFTER. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT KEEPING THEM UP ON THE RIDGE WHILE ALLOWING THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO BRIEFLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE CONVECTION MOVES IN. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 ...A COLD WEEKEND ON TAP... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH STRONG CAA KICKING INTO FULL GEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...COMBINED WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY. 00Z ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TROUGH...CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. THUS...PLAN TO KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO ACTUALLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MODEL SUPPORT IS LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. NOT SURE WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH MAY KEEP THE CLOUD COVER HELD IN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS LOOK TO BE HANDLING THE SKY COVER VERY POORLY. REGARDLESS...CAA ALONE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...IF NOT LOWER THAN THIS. IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A PLEASANT DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH A BLUSTERY WEST WIND...PUTTING EVEN MORE OF A CHILL INTO THE AIR. SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF CLOUDS HOLD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY MAY ACT TO INSULATE THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF WELL INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER...IF WE CLEAR...SOME LOW TO MID 30 READINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE THERMAL RIDGE IS STILL UPSTREAM BY SUNDAY MORNING...ITS MORE LIKELY WE KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...AND THUS...LIMITING THE FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...THEY ARE GENERALLY COLDER. THUS...PLAN TO STAY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS FOR NOW GIVEN THE PATTERN. IN FACT...00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING MORE CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE FOG MAY IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES...SUCH AS SME AND LOZ...TOWARDS DAWN. IN FACT...LOZ ALREADY IS SHOWING MVFR FOG DESPITE A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREAD. EXPECT THEM TO BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR JKL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THOUGH A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS...AROUND 4K FEET...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM FRONT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LLWS A POTENTIAL ISSUE FROM 06 TO 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT NEAR 10 KTS LATER THAT EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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