National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KKEY 171359
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
959 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE INTERROGATION SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CONGESTUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY WINDOW
VISION. THE KBYX RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT RUNNING INTO SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT. THE DRY AIR IS SHOWN ON THE MORNING SOUNDING DATA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
WITH DEAD CALM AT MOLASSES REEF AND LONG KEY LIGHTS...VERY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AT SMITH SHOAL AND KEY WEST COAST GUARD...AND EAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS AT SAND KEY. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NORTHEAST NEAR 5
KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS WEAKENED...THE VEERING PROFILE IS NOT
QUITE ORGANIZED AS WELL AS WE LIKE TO SEE THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY TO DISCOUNT
THE POTENTIAL THOUGH...THE VEERING PROFILE MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
DURING THE DAY AFTER THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH BREAKS UP THE
RIDGING A BIT MORE. THEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH WINDS
BACKING MORE TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST PRODUCING CLOUD LINES...WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL
PROFILE WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 TO
120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IS REFLECTED IN LIGHT
WINDS. WITH THE WEAK WIND REGIME EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE
MOISTENING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS ARE EXPECT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z/18TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTERS
(NEAR 025) THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL
BE AT SEVERAL LAYERS INCLUDING 025...050 AND BETWEEN 080-100. MOSTLY
EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 17TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 135 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST