Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS62 KKEY 231453
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1053 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
A prefrontal trough is nearly stalled across the Florida Keys and
has been the focus for linear clusters of thunderstorms throughout
the morning. Surface observations and satellite imagery highlight
a cold front diving southeast through the Gulf. Time of arrival
tools suggest the front should arrive later this afternoon or
early this evening. The linear cluster north of the Lower Keys has
steadily lost latitude over the past couple of hours, and should
be the last hoorah for storms. We expect this cluster to clear to
the south and east of the island chain by mid-afternoon. When all
is said and done, radar derived two-day rainfall totals should
reach 3 to 8". The peak wind gust so far with this event is 52
knots/60 mph. Occasional TVSs on the KBYX radar have thankfully
not passed over the island chain, but they have been close. The
forecast handles the transition to clearing weather well, so no
changes are needed or planned. Cooler, drier, less breezy, and
sunnier skies are expected on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all the coastal waters
of the Florida Keys due to south to southwest winds 20 to 25
knots, with frequent gusts near 30 knots. From synopsis, strong
south to southwest breezes will clock around to the northwest this
afternoon and evening as a Gulf low deepens and moves eastward
across the Florida Peninsula. The heavy weather will depart this
afternoon with fresh to strong northwesterly breezes persisting.
Breezes will ultimately shift quickly to the northeast then east
Monday and Monday night, and slacken by Tuesday. Southeast breezes
will freshen once again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
With convection still ongoing across the forecast area, have kept
prevailing MVFR CIGS at both terminals through early this afternoon.
It is still to be determined whether the line north of the Lower
Keys will clip EYW, so will continue to be more on the pessimistic
side for the next few hours. TEMPOs are also in place to account for
the possible incoming thunderstorms. Convection should begin to
clear out later this afternoon, and have removed any mention of
showers starting at 18Z. Surface winds outside of convection will be
15 to 20 knots, with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots through the
first part of tonight, then will start to decrease overnight through
tomorrow morning. Winds will steadily veer from southwesterly to
northwesterly during the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  69  79  70 /  80  20   0   0
Marathon  82  69  79  71 /  90  20   0  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....NB

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.