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000
FXUS62 KKEY 151436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES RANGING FROM PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AND NORTHWARD...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE HOVERING
AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS VARYING BETWEEN 10
AND 20 MPH. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE (1025 MB) LIES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF COAST REGION. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS SCANT
MOISTURE (PWAT .79 INCHES) UNDERNEATH A WEAK 1 DEGREE C INVERSION
BASED AT 850 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
AN EXTREMELY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL CONTROL OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE A
STRENGHENING INVERSION BASED NEAR 850 MB. WITH THAT SAID...A SUBTLE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UNDULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF CHANGEABLE SKIES...ANY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITHIN
A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS.

 &&

.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 14 AND 16
KNOTS AT 1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SURGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BUT UNTIL THEN..DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...15 TO 20 KNOTS ON HAWK CHANNEL AND NEAR 20 KNOTS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR HAWK
CHANNEL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 16/12Z AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS...WITH FEW-SCT CU BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE NOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1900...2.62 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR KEY WEST ON
APRIL 15TH...WHICH STANDS 113 YEAR LATER.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL/..........APA
AVIATION.............................BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV

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