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000
FXUS62 KKEY 131441
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE NEAR A COL...RESULTING IN LIGHT
MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING INDICATED AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORID AND THE KEYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
LARGELY LOCATED NEAR THE FLORIDA BAY AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY...WHILE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BACK TO EAST
NORTHEAST TO EAST. MEANWHILE...THE BEST REGION OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS NOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT THIS SET UP IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
SMALL SCALE RESPONSES TO DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIP IS REASONABLE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. MAY UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING TO
REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
STRONGER NEAR STRONGER CELLS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CALM SEAS. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES IN THE
MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z/13TH...VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KEYW AND
KMTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER TOWERING CUMULUS LINE BUILDING OVER THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES...MVFR CEILINGS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN THE 19Z TO 23Z RANGE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY PRIOR TO 20Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TAFS MAY BE REQUIRED TO CARVE OUT OUT A MORE CONFIDENT TEMPO IFR
PERIOD ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS INFLUENCED BY NEARBY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1900...5.04 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
ON KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON JUNE 13TH IN
KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....RIZZO
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

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