677
FXUS62 KKEY 030820
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
420 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad belt of westerlies across
the western half of the CONUS. A narrow ridge-trough couplet is
over the eastern US and the Bahamas. The surface high centered
near Bermuda supports 15 to 20 knot easterlies along the Reef.
The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled PW near the 25th percentile for the
date. The BL easterlies shift to the northwest in the upper
levels. The KBYX radar has been mostly quiet.

.FORECAST...
Anomalously lower mid to upper level heights will linger over the
Bahamas for the next several days. The Keys will remain on the
dry and stable side of this trough complex. Early May is
historically a quiet period of weather for the Florida Keys, and
the forecast for the next week is no different. The main weather
story will be the persistent easterlies. Magnitudes will reach 15
to 20 knots during the evening surges, followed by regular lulls
late each morning and early in the afternoon as South Florida
heats-up and buckles the SFC gradient.

The GOES TPW product reveals deep tropical moisture across the
Central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles. Given the latitude of
this plume, the multiday easterlies will never have a chance of
dragging the enhanced moisture into the Keys. We continue to
highlight slight rain chances throughout the next week, but
nudged Sunday night and Monday up to 20% as the northern flank of
the plume brushes into the Bahama Banks and the Straits of
Florida. By this time next week, afternoon highs will be nearing
the upper 80s for much of the island chain, accompanied by
overnight lows nearing 80. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are
right around the corner.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure will
persist over the western North Atlantic for the next several days
resulting in an extended period of moderate to fresh easterly
breezes. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
Friday evening, with rain chances remaining very low. Brief MVFR
ceilings will be possible, mainly during the predawn and early
morning hours. Surface winds will remain from the east at 7 to 13
knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots at times.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson

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