000
FXUS62 KKEY 211422
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THE 12Z
KKEY SOUNDING IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MAY DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE MORNING AT MTH DUE TO
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THAT VICINITY. ADDED THAT
INTO A RECENT TERMINAL FORECAST UPDATE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER
RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THERE WILL AN EQUIVALENT THREAT TO EYW. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS ADVERTISED THERE. EVEN IF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DO THREATEN LATER...THEY SHOULD BE SHORT IN DURATION.
EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1935...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE REACHED 91F IN KEY WEST...AND IN 1929...3.54 INCHES OF
RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. BOTH OF THESE ARE DAILY RECORDS FOR
MAY 21ST IN KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS....MR
DATA ACQUISITION.............VICKERY

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