000
FXUS62 KKEY 161929
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
329 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE MARQUESAS AND
DRY TORTUGAS AT THIS HOUR. SEVERAL CLOUD STREETS LINGER OVER THE WEST
END OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST NEAR
10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS AND THE CMAN STATIONS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS SHOWING 10 TO
15 KNOTS OUT OVER THE STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHRINK TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHEAST USHERING IN HIGH
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
THE WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE INDICATES
VERY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFTING. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT 30 PERCENT MAY BE TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO LITTLE OR NO
INHIBITION AND 120 TO 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL PWATS. WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING OUT WIND WILL NOT ONLY VEER...BUT WILL RELAX AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD BUT AT A SNAILS PACE. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BLOCK THE NORTHERLY MOTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALLING ON THE
KEYS COASTAL WATERS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 12Z/17TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED NEAR 025 AND BETWEEN
050-060. A FEW SPELLS OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 050-060 ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE REST OF THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF 025 CEILINGS BY
MORNING. MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WILL SLACKEN TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1917...THE LOWEST RECORDED
TEMPERATURE FOR THE KEY WEST AREA WAS 64 DEGREES IN 1917. THIS
RECORD STILL STANDS TODAY 96 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  79  86 / 10 30 30 30
MARATHON  79  88  80  89 / 10 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE/DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST