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000
FXUS63 KLBF 212024
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS
INTO MONTANA...WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM 999MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH
IOWAS MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013


FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD INVOLVE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 19Z WITH A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO
LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PART OF A LARGER TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIR ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB WINDS
WERE MEASURED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE 21.12Z UPPER AIR DATA. THIS KEPT HIGHS TODAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATED
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY 23.00Z SHOULD BE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES AND BRING AN END TO THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THESE SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NOW
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE AND WINDS WILL STAY A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY 7-9 DEGREES...AND
WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD GET HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STAY QUITE
COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY ON. AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND HOW COLD
THEY WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORMAL FOR THE SEASON IS 48 AT
KLBF. NORMAL HIGH IS 76. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CARRY WEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCHC T THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER WAA
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 50S OVER NIGHT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT THE GULF
OPEN AND WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
DISCOUNTED COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED BY THE EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY TO STRONG AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
STAY A BIT HIGHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KVTN TO KBBW LINE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WHILE IFR CEILINGS AND
MAYBE SOME 4SM VISIBILITIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS