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000
FXUS63 KLBF 221125 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NRN NEB. THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON. THERE IS ONE MORE IMPULSE ACROSS ERN SD
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH BEFORE THE SFC LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE OVERCAST
SKIES KEEP THE NORTH IN THE 50S.

TONIGHT...AN INVERTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD BELT OF
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH COULD TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS WRN NEB. PRESUMABLY...DRY
AIR COULD MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB CLEARING SKIES THERE. GIVEN THE POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...THE RAP
MODEL MIGHT BE THE BEST HANDLE FOR TONIGHTS SKY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70 IN A FEW LOCALS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN FURTHER. A
SOUTHERLY LLJ CRACKS UP TO AROUND 45 KTS...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FLOW DOESN/T APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG...BUT ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A LEEWARD
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE ESTABLISHED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

IFR ACROSS NRN NEB SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS MORNING WHILE THE
MVFR ALONG I-80 IMPROVES TO VFR. TONIGHT...UPSLOPE EASTERLIES
DEVELOP AND MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KLBF TERMAINAL. MEANWHILE...THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS CLEARING ACROSS NERN NEB AND THE KVTN TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC