000
FXUS63 KLBF 121806
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
106 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

AT H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 40S AS OF 8 AM CDT. SPRINKLES WERE ALSO
REMOVED AS ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AREA IN FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
NUMEROUS SMALL WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUDY START
TO THE MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURE HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED AT KONL WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING
IN. IF IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNRISE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
INTO THE LOW 30S. WILL KEEP FROST ADVISORY GOING. HAVE GONE WITH
LOWER GUIDANCE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH A COOL START TO THE
MORNING. UPPER 60S FOR ONEILL AREA AND AROUND 80 IMPERIAL. WAS TOO
HIGH WITH DEW POINTS YESTERDAY AND HAVE LOWERED SOME THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASING OVER NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST. WITH THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NIGHT HAVE
HELD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

A HOT START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MONDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS THE AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY...BUT WINDS AT THIS TIME
APPEAR THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA /ALONG AND WEST
OF HWY 61/ WHERE A SFC TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL MIX EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE MID 90S/ WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STILL WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA..WHERE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK GOOD.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH MORE WILD FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. NAM PROJECTS CAPE VALUES AT
H75 INCREASING TO NEAR 900 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C AT 06Z
WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BBK AND LBF TO OGA LINE. WILL
INCREASE THE POPS JUST A TAD SO THAT THE AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS KS WEDNESDAY...WITH
EASTERLY SFC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY ADVECTING
HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE INVOF EASTERN COLORADO.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS
GULF MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE SPLIT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH NO STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE
PANHANDLE TO TO 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. FMOS STILL HAVE FUELS READY FOR LARGE GROWTH FIRES. WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PRECLUDE
HIGHLIGHTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL MONDAY AND LOOK TO BE HIGHER ON TUESDAY.
WILL HOLD BACK ON A WATCH FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...POWER